Equity Profile

UPS

United Parcel Service, Inc.

IndustrialsAir Freight & Logistics$92.2B

Apr28Tue

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market6:00 AM EDT

UPS Beats on EPS, Stock Up 1.14%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$1.07	$1.05	+2.88%
Revenue	N/A	$21.0B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

UPS Beats on EPS, Stock Up 1.14%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$1.07	$1.05	+2.88%
Revenue	N/A	$21.0B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Cautiously Optimistic

Overall, management expressed a cautious optimism about future performance. They emphasized their focus on improving efficiency and adapting to market conditions.

Management highlighted ongoing operational efficiencies.

They noted strong demand in certain sectors despite economic challenges.

What It Means

UPS's earnings report shows a positive surprise in EPS, indicating better-than-expected profitability. The stock rose by 1.14% following the announcement, likely driven by the positive EPS result and management's comments on operational efficiencies. However, the lack of revenue data and guidance leaves some uncertainty about future performance.

Company Snapshot

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is a global leader in logistics and package delivery services, operating in the industrial sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well UPS managed costs and revenue this quarter.

$1.05

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the overall demand for UPS's services and how effectively it is capturing market share.

$21.0B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is a global leader in logistics and package delivery services, operating in the industrial sector. As e-commerce continues to grow, UPS plays a crucial role in facilitating the movement of goods, making its performance important for understanding trends in consumer spending and supply chain dynamics.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+6.69%

Avg Stock Reaction

-3.45%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, UPS reported an EPS of $2.38, exceeding expectations by 7.16%. The stock saw a modest increase of 0.22% the following day, indicating a mixed market reaction.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect UPS to report a solid quarter with an EPS of $1.05 and revenue of $21.0B. The company's ability to meet or exceed these expectations will be closely watched.

Bull Case

If UPS can showcase strong demand driven by e-commerce growth and effective cost management, it could lead to a positive surprise in earnings and revenue.

Bear Case

Conversely, if UPS faces challenges such as rising operational costs or lower-than-expected demand, it may fall short of analyst expectations, leading to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.05

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well UPS managed costs and revenue this quarter.

Revenue

$21.0B

Revenue figures will provide insight into the overall demand for UPS's services and how effectively it is capturing market share.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will UPS's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.05?

A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational efficiency and demand, which would be crucial for investor confidence.

What are the revenue trends compared to the expected $21.0B?

Revenue performance will reflect the company's ability to capture market share and manage costs effectively, impacting future growth prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising operational costs on UPS's margins, which could lead to a significant earnings miss.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends in operational costs have been rising faster than anticipated, which could squeeze margins.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating heightened uncertainty.

UPS's recent performance has shown volatility, with a high EPS beat rate but also significant drops when expectations are not met.

Key Risk

If operational costs are reported significantly higher than expected, it could undermine the entire earnings narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether UPS can maintain profitability amidst rising costs and evolving consumer demands.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.10 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $21.5B, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.00 and revenue below $20.5B would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.01%

Historical Avg

±6.8%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.7% while UPS has averaged ±6.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

20.6%

Calls (3.3M)P/C Ratio: 1.09Puts (3.5M)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If UPS beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.24% on the following day, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 11.31%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on operational cost management strategies.
2Insights into e-commerce demand trends and how they are impacting revenue.
3Management's outlook on future growth and any changes in guidance.
4Details on international shipping performance and its contribution to overall revenue.
5Comments on competition and market share dynamics in the logistics sector.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is a global leader in logistics and package delivery services, operating in the industrial sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well UPS managed costs and revenue this quarter.

$1.05

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the overall demand for UPS's services and how effectively it is capturing market share.

$21.0B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+6.69%

Avg Stock Reaction

-3.45%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, UPS reported an EPS of $2.38, exceeding expectations by 7.16%. The stock saw a modest increase of 0.22% the following day, indicating a mixed market reaction.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect UPS to report a solid quarter with an EPS of $1.05 and revenue of $21.0B. The company's ability to meet or exceed these expectations will be closely watched.

Bull Case

If UPS can showcase strong demand driven by e-commerce growth and effective cost management, it could lead to a positive surprise in earnings and revenue.

Bear Case

Conversely, if UPS faces challenges such as rising operational costs or lower-than-expected demand, it may fall short of analyst expectations, leading to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.05

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well UPS managed costs and revenue this quarter.

Revenue

$21.0B

Revenue figures will provide insight into the overall demand for UPS's services and how effectively it is capturing market share.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will UPS's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.05?

A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational efficiency and demand, which would be crucial for investor confidence.

What are the revenue trends compared to the expected $21.0B?

Revenue performance will reflect the company's ability to capture market share and manage costs effectively, impacting future growth prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising operational costs on UPS's margins, which could lead to a significant earnings miss.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends in operational costs have been rising faster than anticipated, which could squeeze margins.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating heightened uncertainty.

UPS's recent performance has shown volatility, with a high EPS beat rate but also significant drops when expectations are not met.

Key Risk

If operational costs are reported significantly higher than expected, it could undermine the entire earnings narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether UPS can maintain profitability amidst rising costs and evolving consumer demands.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.10 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $21.5B, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.00 and revenue below $20.5B would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.01%

Historical Avg

±6.8%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.7% while UPS has averaged ±6.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

20.6%

Calls (3.3M)P/C Ratio: 1.09Puts (3.5M)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If UPS beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.24% on the following day, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 11.31%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on operational cost management strategies.
2Insights into e-commerce demand trends and how they are impacting revenue.
3Management's outlook on future growth and any changes in guidance.
4Details on international shipping performance and its contribution to overall revenue.
5Comments on competition and market share dynamics in the logistics sector.