Equity Profile

UPST

Upstart Holdings, Inc.

FinancialsConsumer Finance$3.0B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that uses artificial intelligence to improve access to credit for consumers....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its market presence and attract more customers.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UPST Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that uses artificial intelligence to improve access to credit for consumers. Operating in the consumer finance sector, Upstart aims to provide a more efficient and fair lending process, which is increasingly important as consumers seek better financial solutions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+184.05%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.10%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Upstart reported an earnings per share of -$0.07, missing expectations significantly. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 2.84% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautious ahead of the upcoming earnings report, especially after the significant miss last quarter. There is uncertainty about how the company will perform in a challenging economic environment.

Bull Case

If Upstart can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved profitability, it may regain investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss expectations or shows declining loan origination volumes, it could lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

Given the significant miss last quarter, investors will closely scrutinize EPS to gauge the company's recovery and profitability.

How has loan origination volume changed compared to last quarter?

Loan origination volume is critical for understanding demand for Upstart's services and overall market conditions.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Upstart's ability to rebound from its recent earnings miss, as the company has a strong track record of beating expectations in the past.

Supporting Evidence

Upstart has an 88% EPS beat rate historically, indicating potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

The recent decline in stock price may have already priced in negative sentiment, leaving room for a rebound.

Key Risk

If loan origination volume shows unexpected growth, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The key debate this quarter revolves around whether Upstart can recover from its recent earnings miss and show growth in loan origination.

Bull Confirmed If

A return to positive EPS of at least $0.20 would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below -$0.10 would reinforce the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.73%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.7% while UPST has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

66.9%

Calls (1.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.35Puts (1.1M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Upstart beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.92% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may remain flat or see slight movements.

Miss

If Upstart misses again, history suggests a potential drop of about 2.84%, indicating ongoing concerns about its performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan origination volume trends compared to last quarter.
2Specific guidance on EPS expectations for the next quarter.
3Insights into customer acquisition strategies and market conditions.
4Management's commentary on operational efficiency improvements.
5Any changes in regulatory impacts on the lending environment.

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Company Snapshot

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that uses artificial intelligence to improve access to credit for consumers....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its market presence and attract more customers.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UPST Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+184.05%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.10%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Upstart reported an earnings per share of -$0.07, missing expectations significantly. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 2.84% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Upstart can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved profitability, it may regain investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss expectations or shows declining loan origination volumes, it could lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

Given the significant miss last quarter, investors will closely scrutinize EPS to gauge the company's recovery and profitability.

How has loan origination volume changed compared to last quarter?

Loan origination volume is critical for understanding demand for Upstart's services and overall market conditions.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Upstart's ability to rebound from its recent earnings miss, as the company has a strong track record of beating expectations in the past.

Supporting Evidence

Upstart has an 88% EPS beat rate historically, indicating potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

The recent decline in stock price may have already priced in negative sentiment, leaving room for a rebound.

Key Risk

If loan origination volume shows unexpected growth, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The key debate this quarter revolves around whether Upstart can recover from its recent earnings miss and show growth in loan origination.

Bull Confirmed If

A return to positive EPS of at least $0.20 would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below -$0.10 would reinforce the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.73%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.7% while UPST has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

66.9%

Calls (1.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.35Puts (1.1M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Upstart beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.92% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may remain flat or see slight movements.

Miss

If Upstart misses again, history suggests a potential drop of about 2.84%, indicating ongoing concerns about its performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan origination volume trends compared to last quarter.
2Specific guidance on EPS expectations for the next quarter.
3Insights into customer acquisition strategies and market conditions.
4Management's commentary on operational efficiency improvements.
5Any changes in regulatory impacts on the lending environment.