Equity Profile

UPST

Upstart Holdings, Inc.

FinancialsConsumer Finance$2.8B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that uses artificial intelligence to improve access to credit for consumers....

Key Metrics to Watch

Loan Origination Volume

This metric indicates the total amount of loans Upstart has facilitated, reflecting demand for their services.

N/A

Default Rates

Monitoring default rates is crucial as it affects profitability and investor confidence.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UPST Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that uses artificial intelligence to improve access to credit for consumers. Operating in the consumer finance sector, Upstart aims to enhance lending processes and reduce risk for lenders, which is increasingly important in today's economic climate.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+184.05%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.10%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Upstart reported an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.07, significantly missing the estimated EPS of $0.20. This disappointing result led to a 2.84% decline in stock price the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Upstart's upcoming earnings report are cautious due to the recent miss and lack of analyst estimates. Investors will be closely watching for any signs of recovery or improvement in key metrics.

Bull Case

If Upstart shows strong loan origination growth and improved default rates, it could signal a recovery and boost investor confidence, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports continued losses or rising default rates, it could lead to further declines in stock price as investors reassess the company's viability.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current loan origination volume compared to previous quarters?

This figure will be critical in assessing the demand for Upstart's services and overall business health.

How have default rates changed in the last quarter?

Changes in default rates will directly impact profitability and investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in loan origination volume, which could significantly improve Upstart's financial outlook this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 7.73% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.

Upstart has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with an 88% beat rate historically.

Key Risk

If loan origination volume exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on how well Upstart can manage its loan origination and default rates amidst a challenging economic environment.

Bull Confirmed If

Loan origination volume growth of over 15% quarter-over-quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Default rates exceeding 5% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.73%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.7% while UPST has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

66.9%

Calls (1.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.35Puts (1.1M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Upstart beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential average one-day move of around -0.85%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about -2.84%, as seen in past performance, causing investors to reassess their positions.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on partnerships or new customer acquisitions.
2Details on changes in underwriting criteria and their impact on loan performance.
3Management's outlook on economic conditions affecting consumer lending.
4Insights into operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the consumer finance space.

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Company Snapshot

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that uses artificial intelligence to improve access to credit for consumers....

Key Metrics to Watch

Loan Origination Volume

This metric indicates the total amount of loans Upstart has facilitated, reflecting demand for their services.

N/A

Default Rates

Monitoring default rates is crucial as it affects profitability and investor confidence.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UPST Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+184.05%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.10%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Upstart shows strong loan origination growth and improved default rates, it could signal a recovery and boost investor confidence, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports continued losses or rising default rates, it could lead to further declines in stock price as investors reassess the company's viability.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current loan origination volume compared to previous quarters?

This figure will be critical in assessing the demand for Upstart's services and overall business health.

How have default rates changed in the last quarter?

Changes in default rates will directly impact profitability and investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in loan origination volume, which could significantly improve Upstart's financial outlook this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 7.73% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.

Upstart has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with an 88% beat rate historically.

Key Risk

If loan origination volume exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on how well Upstart can manage its loan origination and default rates amidst a challenging economic environment.

Bull Confirmed If

Loan origination volume growth of over 15% quarter-over-quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Default rates exceeding 5% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.73%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.7% while UPST has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

66.9%

Calls (1.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.35Puts (1.1M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Upstart beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential average one-day move of around -0.85%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about -2.84%, as seen in past performance, causing investors to reassess their positions.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on partnerships or new customer acquisitions.
2Details on changes in underwriting criteria and their impact on loan performance.
3Management's outlook on economic conditions affecting consumer lending.
4Insights into operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the consumer finance space.