Equity Profile

USFD

US Foods Holding Corp.

Consumer StaplesFood Distributors$23.8B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

US Foods Holding Corp. is a major food distributor in the Consumer Staples sector, providing a wide range of food products to restaurants and food service operations....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share and meet customer demand.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

USFD Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

US Foods Holding Corp. is a major food distributor in the Consumer Staples sector, providing a wide range of food products to restaurants and food service operations. As a key player in the food supply chain, its performance can reflect broader trends in consumer spending and food industry dynamics.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.33%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.75%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, US Foods reported an EPS of $0.78, beating expectations by 4%. However, the stock fell by 5.62% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about US Foods' upcoming earnings report, especially given its consistent history of beating EPS estimates.

Bull Case

If US Foods continues its trend of beating EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could lead to a positive market reaction and increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of rising costs impacting profitability, it could lead to a significant sell-off.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to last quarter's $0.78?

Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, this will be a key indicator of ongoing profitability and market confidence.

How is the company managing rising costs, particularly in COGS?

With inflationary pressures affecting many sectors, insights into cost management will be crucial for understanding future profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of cost management strategies that US Foods has implemented, which could lead to better-than-expected margins.

Supporting Evidence

US Foods has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational performance.

The options market is pricing a 5.5% move, which may be overly cautious given the company's historical performance.

Recent trends in food distribution suggest a rebound in demand that may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If COGS remains stable or decreases, it could significantly improve margins and challenge current bearish expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is particularly important as it will reflect the company's ability to navigate cost pressures while maintaining profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.85 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profit management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.75 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.47%

Historical Avg

±4.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 5.5%, suggesting that investors are anticipating some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±5.5% while USFD has averaged ±4.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

28.9%

Calls (500)P/C Ratio: 49.00Puts (59K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If US Foods beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.75% on the following day, reinforcing investor confidence.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting cautious sentiment.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 4.39%, which could lead to increased market skepticism.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
2Details on revenue growth in key segments, particularly food service.
3Insights into customer demand trends and how they are impacting sales.
4Management's outlook on inflation and supply chain challenges.
5Any commentary on competitive positioning in the food distribution market.

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Company Snapshot

US Foods Holding Corp. is a major food distributor in the Consumer Staples sector, providing a wide range of food products to restaurants and food service operations....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share and meet customer demand.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

USFD Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.33%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.75%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, US Foods reported an EPS of $0.78, beating expectations by 4%. However, the stock fell by 5.62% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about US Foods' upcoming earnings report, especially given its consistent history of beating EPS estimates.

Bull Case

If US Foods continues its trend of beating EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could lead to a positive market reaction and increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of rising costs impacting profitability, it could lead to a significant sell-off.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to last quarter's $0.78?

Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, this will be a key indicator of ongoing profitability and market confidence.

How is the company managing rising costs, particularly in COGS?

With inflationary pressures affecting many sectors, insights into cost management will be crucial for understanding future profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of cost management strategies that US Foods has implemented, which could lead to better-than-expected margins.

Supporting Evidence

US Foods has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational performance.

The options market is pricing a 5.5% move, which may be overly cautious given the company's historical performance.

Recent trends in food distribution suggest a rebound in demand that may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If COGS remains stable or decreases, it could significantly improve margins and challenge current bearish expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is particularly important as it will reflect the company's ability to navigate cost pressures while maintaining profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.85 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profit management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.75 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.47%

Historical Avg

±4.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 5.5%, suggesting that investors are anticipating some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±5.5% while USFD has averaged ±4.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

28.9%

Calls (500)P/C Ratio: 49.00Puts (59K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If US Foods beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.75% on the following day, reinforcing investor confidence.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting cautious sentiment.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 4.39%, which could lead to increased market skepticism.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
2Details on revenue growth in key segments, particularly food service.
3Insights into customer demand trends and how they are impacting sales.
4Management's outlook on inflation and supply chain challenges.
5Any commentary on competitive positioning in the food distribution market.