Equity Profile

USFD

US Foods Holding Corp.

Consumer StaplesFood Distributors$22.3B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

US Foods Holding Corp. is a major food distributor in the Consumer Staples sector, serving restaurants and foodservice operations across the U.S....

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue Growth

Understanding revenue growth is crucial as it reflects the company's ability to capture market share and respond to demand fluctuations.

N/A

Operating Margin

Operating margin indicates how efficiently the company is managing its costs relative to its sales, which is vital for profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

USFD Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

US Foods Holding Corp. is a major food distributor in the Consumer Staples sector, serving restaurants and foodservice operations across the U.S. As consumer spending on dining continues to evolve, the company's performance is closely tied to trends in the foodservice industry.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.33%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.75%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, US Foods reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.78, beating expectations by 4%. However, the stock experienced a decline of 5.62% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for US Foods are mixed, with some investors optimistic about continued growth in the food distribution sector while others are cautious about rising costs and competition.

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on strong demand recovery in the foodservice industry, which could lead to significant revenue growth and improved margins.

Bear Case

Conversely, the pessimistic outlook focuses on potential cost pressures and supply chain challenges that could hinder profitability and growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the revenue growth rate for the foodservice segment?

This figure will be critical in assessing the company's ability to capitalize on market demand and could significantly impact investor sentiment.

How is US Foods managing cost pressures and supply chain challenges?

Understanding the company's strategies to mitigate these challenges will be essential for evaluating future profitability and operational efficiency.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the resilience of US Foods' customer base and the potential for strong revenue growth despite cost pressures.

Supporting Evidence

The company's consistent EPS beat rate suggests strong operational performance.

Historical trends show that US Foods has managed to navigate challenges effectively, leading to positive surprises.

Options pricing indicates a higher expected move than historical averages, suggesting that investors anticipate significant news.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the company's ability to sustain growth while managing costs in a competitive environment.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue growth exceeding 10% year-over-year would confirm the bullish case.

Bear Confirmed If

Any indication of declining margins or significant cost increases could confirm the bearish outlook.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.47%

Historical Avg

±4.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings announcement, suggesting that investors expect volatility.

Options are pricing ±5.5% while USFD has averaged ±4.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

28.9%

Calls (500)P/C Ratio: 49.00Puts (59K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 27 (33%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Staples in the last 2 years. 18 of 27 (67%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.6%, with a raw directional average of +1.8% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If US Foods beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could jump by around 0.75% on the first trading day post-earnings.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors weigh future uncertainties.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 0.75%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on revenue growth in the foodservice segment.
2Details on cost management strategies and supply chain improvements.
3Any commentary on customer demand trends and market conditions.
4Insights into competitive pressures and how US Foods is responding.
5Future guidance on operating margins and profitability.

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Company Snapshot

US Foods Holding Corp. is a major food distributor in the Consumer Staples sector, serving restaurants and foodservice operations across the U.S....

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue Growth

Understanding revenue growth is crucial as it reflects the company's ability to capture market share and respond to demand fluctuations.

N/A

Operating Margin

Operating margin indicates how efficiently the company is managing its costs relative to its sales, which is vital for profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

USFD Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.33%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.75%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for US Foods are mixed, with some investors optimistic about continued growth in the food distribution sector while others are cautious about rising costs and competition.

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on strong demand recovery in the foodservice industry, which could lead to significant revenue growth and improved margins.

Bear Case

Conversely, the pessimistic outlook focuses on potential cost pressures and supply chain challenges that could hinder profitability and growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the revenue growth rate for the foodservice segment?

This figure will be critical in assessing the company's ability to capitalize on market demand and could significantly impact investor sentiment.

How is US Foods managing cost pressures and supply chain challenges?

Understanding the company's strategies to mitigate these challenges will be essential for evaluating future profitability and operational efficiency.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the resilience of US Foods' customer base and the potential for strong revenue growth despite cost pressures.

Supporting Evidence

The company's consistent EPS beat rate suggests strong operational performance.

Historical trends show that US Foods has managed to navigate challenges effectively, leading to positive surprises.

Options pricing indicates a higher expected move than historical averages, suggesting that investors anticipate significant news.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the company's ability to sustain growth while managing costs in a competitive environment.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue growth exceeding 10% year-over-year would confirm the bullish case.

Bear Confirmed If

Any indication of declining margins or significant cost increases could confirm the bearish outlook.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.47%

Historical Avg

±4.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings announcement, suggesting that investors expect volatility.

Options are pricing ±5.5% while USFD has averaged ±4.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

28.9%

Calls (500)P/C Ratio: 49.00Puts (59K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 27 (33%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If US Foods beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could jump by around 0.75% on the first trading day post-earnings.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors weigh future uncertainties.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 0.75%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on revenue growth in the foodservice segment.
2Details on cost management strategies and supply chain improvements.
3Any commentary on customer demand trends and market conditions.
4Insights into competitive pressures and how US Foods is responding.
5Future guidance on operating margins and profitability.