Equity Profile

VLO

Valero Energy Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$77.2B

Apr30Thu

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market6:30 AM EDT

Valero Energy Corporation Beats on EPS, Stock Up 0.51%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$4.22	$3.11	+37.46%
Revenue	N/A	$30.0B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Valero Energy Corporation Beats on EPS, Stock Up 0.51%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$4.22	$3.11	+37.46%
Revenue	N/A	$30.0B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.

What It Means

Valero Energy's strong EPS performance indicates better-than-expected profitability, which likely contributed to the slight increase in stock price. However, the lack of revenue data and management commentary leaves some uncertainty about the overall business outlook. Investors may want to monitor future reports for more comprehensive insights.

Company Snapshot

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is a major player in the energy sector, focusing on oil refining and marketing. With a market cap of $75 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the supply of fuels and petrochemical products, making it significant in the current energy landscape, especially amid fluctuating oil prices and global energy demands.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Valero managed costs and revenue in the quarter.

$3.11

Revenue

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$30.0B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+91.45%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.27%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Valero reported an EPS of $3.82, significantly exceeding estimates by 18.56%. Despite the strong earnings, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are generally optimistic about Valero's upcoming earnings, expecting solid EPS and revenue figures. However, there are concerns about potential volatility in oil prices that could impact results.

Bull Case

If Valero beats EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust operational efficiency and demand, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations due to rising costs or lower demand, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, reflecting investor concerns about profitability.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$3.11

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Valero managed costs and revenue in the quarter.

Revenue

$30.0B

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Valero's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $3.11?

A beat on EPS could signal strong operational performance, which is crucial for investor confidence.

How does Valero expect to navigate potential fluctuations in oil prices this quarter?

Given the volatility in oil markets, management's insights on pricing strategies will be critical for assessing future profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Valero's ability to capitalize on refining margins, especially if oil prices stabilize or decline, which could enhance profitability.

Supporting Evidence

Valero's recent EPS surprises indicate a strong operational performance that could continue.

The options market is pricing for a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility, which may not align with consensus expectations.

Key Risk

If refining margins improve significantly, it could lead to a substantial upward revision in earnings expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing Valero's ability to maintain profitability amid fluctuating oil prices, making these metrics pivotal.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $3.50 or higher would confirm strong operational efficiency and market demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.58 would indicate significant challenges in cost management or demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.64%

Historical Avg

±3.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a larger than average move, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±4.6% while VLO has averaged ±3.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

34.9%

Calls (669K)P/C Ratio: 0.30Puts (352K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 18 of 24 (75%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.6%, with a raw directional average of +1.1% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Valero beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +1.30%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around -3.02%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns over future performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margins and how they are expected to trend in the coming months.
2Management's outlook on oil price volatility and its potential impact on operations.
3Details on cost management strategies and how they are affecting profitability.
4Insights into demand trends for gasoline and other refined products.
5Any commentary on future capital expenditures and growth initiatives.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Valero managed costs and revenue in the quarter.

$3.11

Revenue

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$30.0B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+91.45%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.27%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Valero reported an EPS of $3.82, significantly exceeding estimates by 18.56%. Despite the strong earnings, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Valero beats EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust operational efficiency and demand, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations due to rising costs or lower demand, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, reflecting investor concerns about profitability.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$3.11

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Valero managed costs and revenue in the quarter.

Revenue

$30.0B

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Valero's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $3.11?

A beat on EPS could signal strong operational performance, which is crucial for investor confidence.

How does Valero expect to navigate potential fluctuations in oil prices this quarter?

Given the volatility in oil markets, management's insights on pricing strategies will be critical for assessing future profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Valero's ability to capitalize on refining margins, especially if oil prices stabilize or decline, which could enhance profitability.

Supporting Evidence

Valero's recent EPS surprises indicate a strong operational performance that could continue.

The options market is pricing for a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility, which may not align with consensus expectations.

Key Risk

If refining margins improve significantly, it could lead to a substantial upward revision in earnings expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing Valero's ability to maintain profitability amid fluctuating oil prices, making these metrics pivotal.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $3.50 or higher would confirm strong operational efficiency and market demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.58 would indicate significant challenges in cost management or demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.64%

Historical Avg

±3.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a larger than average move, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±4.6% while VLO has averaged ±3.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

34.9%

Calls (669K)P/C Ratio: 0.30Puts (352K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Valero beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +1.30%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around -3.02%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns over future performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margins and how they are expected to trend in the coming months.
2Management's outlook on oil price volatility and its potential impact on operations.
3Details on cost management strategies and how they are affecting profitability.
4Insights into demand trends for gasoline and other refined products.
5Any commentary on future capital expenditures and growth initiatives.