Equity Profile
Pre-Earnings Brief
Valero Energy Corp (VLO) is a leading player in the energy sector, specifically in oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $70 billion, Valero is crucial for fuel supply in North America and plays a significant role in the global energy landscape.
EPS
Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors.
Revenue
Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
2Q
EPS Beat Rate
75%
Avg EPS Surprise
+89.26%
Avg Stock Reaction
+0.22%
In Q4-2025, Valero reported an EPS of $3.82, significantly beating estimates. However, the stock reacted negatively the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts expect Valero to report strong earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $3.11. Investors are keen to see if the company can maintain its recent performance amid fluctuating oil prices.
Bull Case
If Valero exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand and operational efficiency, boosting investor confidence.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about profitability and market conditions, leading to a negative stock reaction.
EPS
$3.11Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors.
Revenue
$30.0BTotal revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.
Expectations
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $3.11?
A strong EPS could indicate continued operational success and market demand, which is critical for investor confidence.
Q2
What guidance will Valero provide for future revenue growth?
Future revenue guidance will help investors assess the company's outlook and ability to navigate market challenges.
Edge
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the impact of Valero's cost control measures and renewable diesel expansion, which could drive better-than-expected results.
Supporting Evidence
Valero has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate in the last eight quarters.
Recent performance trends suggest a strong operational capacity that may not be fully reflected in current estimates.
Key Risk
If Valero's revenue comes in below $25.5B, it could undermine the bullish sentiment surrounding the stock.
Edge
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The debate centers around whether Valero can sustain its recent earnings momentum amid fluctuating oil prices and market conditions.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $3.50 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market demand.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $2.58 would suggest significant challenges in profitability.
Pre-Earnings Positioning
Implied Move
±4.2%
Historical Avg
±2.9%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of 4.2% following the earnings report, indicating uncertainty among investors.
Options are pricing ±11.0% while VLO has averaged ±2.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
41.6%
Preparation
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Valero beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.3%, confirming strong operational performance.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may react neutrally as investors weigh future risks.
Miss
A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of approximately 3.02%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about profitability.
Preparation
House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Jan 9, 2026 · disclosed Feb 13, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.
Preparation
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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