Equity Profile

VST

Vistra Corp.

UtilitiesIndependent Power Producers & Energy Traders$53.3B

May7Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Vistra Corp. (VST) is a leading independent power producer and energy trader in the utilities sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Vistra managed costs and revenues this quarter.

0.86

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is critical for assessing overall business health.

5.7B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

VST Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Vistra Corp. (VST) is a leading independent power producer and energy trader in the utilities sector. The company plays a crucial role in providing electricity and managing energy resources, which is increasingly important as the world shifts towards cleaner energy solutions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 7Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

Avg EPS Surprise

-30.60%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.85%

Last Quarter Recap

In the previous quarter, Vistra reported disappointing earnings, missing analyst expectations significantly. The company faced challenges that impacted its profitability, leading to a decline in stock price following the announcement.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Vistra's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a modest recovery in EPS and revenue. However, the company's history of missing estimates raises concerns.

Bull Case

If Vistra can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence and stock price.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could lead to further declines in stock price, reflecting ongoing operational challenges.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.86

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Vistra managed costs and revenues this quarter.

Revenue

5.7B

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is critical for assessing overall business health.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.86?

A beat on EPS would indicate improved profitability and could restore investor confidence after recent disappointments.

What is the outlook for revenue growth compared to the consensus of $5.7B?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing the company's operational strength and ability to generate cash flow.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Vistra's potential for a turnaround, as recent investments in renewable energy could drive future growth.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

Insider buying activity suggests confidence in the company's future prospects despite recent performance.

The company's strategic initiatives may not be fully reflected in current analyst estimates.

Key Risk

If revenue growth significantly exceeds expectations, it could shift market sentiment positively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Vistra can rebound from its previous earnings miss and show sustainable growth in a challenging environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm a strong recovery and positive momentum.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 would indicate ongoing struggles and could lead to a significant sell-off.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.42%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±14.4% while VST has averaged ±2.5% over the last 7 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

53.9%

Calls (683K)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (366K)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

92.70%

of float

Insider

0.80%

of float

Holders

1,748

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Vanguard Group Inc
41,588,784 sh · $6.8B
12.28%
0.9%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Vistra beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.5%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience minimal movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 3.0%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-LAJulia LetlowRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on renewable energy projects and their expected impact on revenue.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies and operational efficiency.
3Insights into market demand for electricity and pricing trends.
4Guidance on future earnings and any changes to long-term forecasts.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding competitive positioning in the energy market.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Vistra Corp. (VST) is a leading independent power producer and energy trader in the utilities sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Vistra managed costs and revenues this quarter.

0.86

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is critical for assessing overall business health.

5.7B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

VST Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 7Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

Avg EPS Surprise

-30.60%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.85%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Vistra's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a modest recovery in EPS and revenue. However, the company's history of missing estimates raises concerns.

Bull Case

If Vistra can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence and stock price.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could lead to further declines in stock price, reflecting ongoing operational challenges.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.86

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Vistra managed costs and revenues this quarter.

Revenue

5.7B

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is critical for assessing overall business health.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.86?

A beat on EPS would indicate improved profitability and could restore investor confidence after recent disappointments.

What is the outlook for revenue growth compared to the consensus of $5.7B?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing the company's operational strength and ability to generate cash flow.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Vistra's potential for a turnaround, as recent investments in renewable energy could drive future growth.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

Insider buying activity suggests confidence in the company's future prospects despite recent performance.

The company's strategic initiatives may not be fully reflected in current analyst estimates.

Key Risk

If revenue growth significantly exceeds expectations, it could shift market sentiment positively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Vistra can rebound from its previous earnings miss and show sustainable growth in a challenging environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm a strong recovery and positive momentum.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 would indicate ongoing struggles and could lead to a significant sell-off.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.42%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±14.4% while VST has averaged ±2.5% over the last 7 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

53.9%

Calls (683K)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (366K)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

92.70%

of float

Insider

0.80%

of float

Holders

1,748

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Vanguard Group Inc
41,588,784 sh · $6.8B
12.28%
0.9%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Vistra beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.5%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience minimal movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 3.0%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-LAJulia LetlowRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on renewable energy projects and their expected impact on revenue.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies and operational efficiency.
3Insights into market demand for electricity and pricing trends.
4Guidance on future earnings and any changes to long-term forecasts.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding competitive positioning in the energy market.