Equity Profile

VST

Vistra Corp.

UtilitiesIndependent Power Producers & Energy Traders$54.0B

May7Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Vistra Corp. (VST) operates in the utilities sector, focusing on independent power production and energy trading....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and financial health, helping investors gauge the company's performance.

0.86

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales, which is vital for assessing growth and operational efficiency.

5.7B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

VST Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Vistra Corp. (VST) operates in the utilities sector, focusing on independent power production and energy trading. As a major player in the energy market, it plays a crucial role in providing electricity and managing energy resources, which are increasingly important as the world shifts towards sustainable energy solutions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 7Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

Avg EPS Surprise

-30.60%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.85%

Last Quarter Recap

In the previous quarter, Vistra reported disappointing earnings, missing analyst expectations significantly. This led to a negative market reaction, highlighting concerns about the company's performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Vistra's upcoming earnings, expecting a modest recovery in EPS and revenue. However, there are concerns about the company's ability to meet these expectations given its recent performance.

Bull Case

If Vistra can exceed the EPS estimate, it may signal a turnaround in its profitability and operational efficiency, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could raise further doubts about its growth strategy and financial stability, leading to a significant sell-off.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.86

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and financial health, helping investors gauge the company's performance.

Revenue

5.7B

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales, which is vital for assessing growth and operational efficiency.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.86?

A beat on EPS could indicate improved profitability and operational efficiency, which the market is keenly watching.

How does revenue compare to the consensus of $5.7B?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing growth and could impact investor sentiment significantly.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Vistra's potential for recovery, given its recent investments in renewable energy and operational efficiencies.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting traders expect significant volatility.

Insider buying activity indicates confidence in the company's future prospects despite recent performance.

The historical trend shows that even after a miss, stocks can rebound if future guidance is optimistic.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in below $0.50, it could undermine the bullish narrative and lead to a reevaluation of the company's growth strategy.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a significant miss last quarter, and investors are looking for signs of recovery.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong financial recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 would confirm the bear case, raising serious concerns about the company's future.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.42%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±14.4% while VST has averaged ±2.5% over the last 7 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

53.9%

Calls (683K)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (366K)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

92.70%

of float

Insider

0.80%

of float

Holders

1,748

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Vanguard Group Inc
41,588,784 sh · $6.8B
12.28%
0.9%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Vistra beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.5% on the first day, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors digest the news and await further commentary.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations again, history suggests a decline of about 3% on the first day, which could lead to increased skepticism about its growth strategy.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$101,002.00–$265,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-LAJulia LetlowRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
2Details on revenue generation from renewable energy sources.
3Management's outlook on market conditions and regulatory impacts.
4Insights into customer demand trends and energy pricing.
5Any commentary on strategic initiatives or partnerships.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Vistra Corp. (VST) operates in the utilities sector, focusing on independent power production and energy trading....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and financial health, helping investors gauge the company's performance.

0.86

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales, which is vital for assessing growth and operational efficiency.

5.7B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

VST Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 7Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

Avg EPS Surprise

-30.60%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.85%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Vistra can exceed the EPS estimate, it may signal a turnaround in its profitability and operational efficiency, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could raise further doubts about its growth strategy and financial stability, leading to a significant sell-off.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.86

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and financial health, helping investors gauge the company's performance.

Revenue

5.7B

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales, which is vital for assessing growth and operational efficiency.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.86?

A beat on EPS could indicate improved profitability and operational efficiency, which the market is keenly watching.

How does revenue compare to the consensus of $5.7B?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing growth and could impact investor sentiment significantly.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Vistra's potential for recovery, given its recent investments in renewable energy and operational efficiencies.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting traders expect significant volatility.

Insider buying activity indicates confidence in the company's future prospects despite recent performance.

The historical trend shows that even after a miss, stocks can rebound if future guidance is optimistic.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in below $0.50, it could undermine the bullish narrative and lead to a reevaluation of the company's growth strategy.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a significant miss last quarter, and investors are looking for signs of recovery.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong financial recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 would confirm the bear case, raising serious concerns about the company's future.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.42%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±14.4% while VST has averaged ±2.5% over the last 7 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

53.9%

Calls (683K)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (366K)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

92.70%

of float

Insider

0.80%

of float

Holders

1,748

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Vanguard Group Inc
41,588,784 sh · $6.8B
12.28%
0.9%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Vistra beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.5% on the first day, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors digest the news and await further commentary.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations again, history suggests a decline of about 3% on the first day, which could lead to increased skepticism about its growth strategy.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$101,002.00–$265,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-LAJulia LetlowRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
2Details on revenue generation from renewable energy sources.
3Management's outlook on market conditions and regulatory impacts.
4Insights into customer demand trends and energy pricing.
5Any commentary on strategic initiatives or partnerships.