Equity Profile

VST

Vistra Corp.

UtilitiesIndependent Power Producers & Energy Traders$54.0B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2021Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Vistra Corp. (VST) is a leading independent power producer and energy trader in the utilities sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health this quarter.

$1.46

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its energy services.

$5.2B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

VST Q2-2021 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Vistra Corp. (VST) is a leading independent power producer and energy trader in the utilities sector. The company plays a crucial role in providing electricity and energy solutions, which are essential for both residential and commercial customers, especially as the energy landscape evolves towards more sustainable practices.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 7Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

Avg EPS Surprise

-30.60%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.85%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Vistra reported a significant earnings miss, with an EPS of -$4.21 compared to expectations. This disappointment led to a notable drop in stock price the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Vistra's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a rebound in EPS and revenue. However, the recent history of earnings misses raises concerns.

Bull Case

If Vistra can meet or exceed the EPS estimate of $1.46, it may signal a recovery in profitability and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to deliver on earnings or revenue expectations, it could lead to further declines in stock price, reflecting ongoing operational challenges.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$1.46

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health this quarter.

Revenue

$5.2B

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its energy services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $1.46?

Achieving or surpassing this EPS target is crucial for restoring investor confidence after the previous quarter's significant miss.

What are the revenue expectations for this quarter, particularly in relation to the $5.2B consensus?

Revenue performance will be a key indicator of market demand and operational efficiency, impacting future growth prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating Vistra's ability to rebound from its previous earnings miss, as operational improvements and market conditions could lead to stronger results than expected.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a significant move, indicating that traders anticipate volatility which may not align with the consensus outlook.

Historical trends show that utilities often recover from earnings misses, suggesting potential for a positive surprise.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in below $1.21, it could undermine the recovery narrative and lead to a reassessment of the company's growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's focus is on whether Vistra can recover from its previous earnings miss and demonstrate stronger financial performance.

Bull Confirmed If

Delivering an EPS of $1.46 or better would confirm a positive turnaround in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.21 would suggest ongoing struggles and could lead to further stock price declines.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±20.25%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±20.2% while VST has averaged ±2.5% over the last 7 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

48.7%

Calls (853K)P/C Ratio: 0.39Puts (458K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Utilities

n=30

Fade rate: 14 of 30 (47%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Utilities in the last 2 years. 14 of 30 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of -0.8% (modestly negative historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

92.70%

of float

Insider

0.80%

of float

Holders

1,748

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Vanguard Group Inc
41,588,784 sh · $6.8B
12.28%
0.9%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Vistra beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.5%, confirming a positive shift in its financial trajectory.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may experience muted movement as investors assess future guidance.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 3%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns over the company's performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$101,002.00–$265,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-LAJulia LetlowRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on operational improvements that could drive revenue growth.
2Any updates on regulatory changes affecting the energy market.
3Insights into customer demand trends for electricity.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and market conditions.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding the previous quarter's performance.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Vistra Corp. (VST) is a leading independent power producer and energy trader in the utilities sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health this quarter.

$1.46

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its energy services.

$5.2B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

VST Q2-2021 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 7Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

Avg EPS Surprise

-30.60%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.85%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Vistra reported a significant earnings miss, with an EPS of -$4.21 compared to expectations. This disappointment led to a notable drop in stock price the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Vistra's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a rebound in EPS and revenue. However, the recent history of earnings misses raises concerns.

Bull Case

If Vistra can meet or exceed the EPS estimate of $1.46, it may signal a recovery in profitability and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to deliver on earnings or revenue expectations, it could lead to further declines in stock price, reflecting ongoing operational challenges.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$1.46

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health this quarter.

Revenue

$5.2B

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its energy services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $1.46?

Achieving or surpassing this EPS target is crucial for restoring investor confidence after the previous quarter's significant miss.

What are the revenue expectations for this quarter, particularly in relation to the $5.2B consensus?

Revenue performance will be a key indicator of market demand and operational efficiency, impacting future growth prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating Vistra's ability to rebound from its previous earnings miss, as operational improvements and market conditions could lead to stronger results than expected.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a significant move, indicating that traders anticipate volatility which may not align with the consensus outlook.

Historical trends show that utilities often recover from earnings misses, suggesting potential for a positive surprise.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in below $1.21, it could undermine the recovery narrative and lead to a reassessment of the company's growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's focus is on whether Vistra can recover from its previous earnings miss and demonstrate stronger financial performance.

Bull Confirmed If

Delivering an EPS of $1.46 or better would confirm a positive turnaround in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.21 would suggest ongoing struggles and could lead to further stock price declines.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±20.25%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±20.2% while VST has averaged ±2.5% over the last 7 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

48.7%

Calls (853K)P/C Ratio: 0.39Puts (458K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Utilities

n=30

Fade rate: 14 of 30 (47%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

92.70%

of float

Insider

0.80%

of float

Holders

1,748

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Vanguard Group Inc
41,588,784 sh · $6.8B
12.28%
0.9%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Vistra beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.5%, confirming a positive shift in its financial trajectory.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may experience muted movement as investors assess future guidance.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 3%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns over the company's performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$101,002.00–$265,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-LAJulia LetlowRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on operational improvements that could drive revenue growth.
2Any updates on regulatory changes affecting the energy market.
3Insights into customer demand trends for electricity.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and market conditions.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding the previous quarter's performance.