Equity Profile

VST

Vistra Corp.

UtilitiesIndependent Power Producers & Energy Traders$49.2B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2021Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Vistra Corp. (VST) operates in the utilities sector, focusing on independent power production and energy trading....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and investor sentiment.

1.46

Revenue

Revenue figures help gauge the company's overall sales performance and market demand.

5.2B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

VST Q2-2021 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Vistra Corp. (VST) operates in the utilities sector, focusing on independent power production and energy trading. As a significant player in the energy market, its performance is closely tied to electricity demand, regulatory changes, and market pricing dynamics.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 7Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

Avg EPS Surprise

-30.60%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.85%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2021, Vistra reported an EPS of -$4.21, significantly missing expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.04% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic, expecting Vistra to report an EPS of $1.46 and revenue of $5.2 billion. However, the company has a history of missing earnings expectations, which could weigh on investor sentiment.

Bull Case

If Vistra can capitalize on higher energy prices and improved demand, it may exceed earnings expectations, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected earnings or revenue, it could trigger further declines in stock price, especially given its recent poor performance.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

1.46

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and investor sentiment.

Revenue

5.2B

Revenue figures help gauge the company's overall sales performance and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.46?

A positive EPS surprise could boost investor confidence and lead to a stock price increase.

What factors contributed to revenue expectations of $5.2 billion?

Understanding revenue drivers will help assess the company's performance and market conditions.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising energy prices on Vistra's profitability this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 20.25% move, indicating high uncertainty that may not reflect actual performance.

The company has historically shown resilience in recovering from earnings misses, which could lead to a surprise this quarter.

Key Risk

If EPS exceeds $1.60, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and lead to a reevaluation of the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Vistra can recover from its recent earnings miss and capitalize on favorable market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

Reporting an EPS of $1.60 or higher would confirm a strong recovery and positive market sentiment.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.21 would signal ongoing challenges and could lead to further stock declines.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±20.25%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating uncertainty or volatility surrounding the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±20.2% while VST has averaged ±2.5% over the last 7 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

48.7%

Calls (853K)P/C Ratio: 0.39Puts (458K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Utilities

n=30

Fade rate: 14 of 30 (47%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Utilities in the last 2 years. 14 of 30 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of -0.8% (modestly negative historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

92.70%

of float

Insider

0.80%

of float

Holders

1,748

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Vanguard Group Inc
41,588,784 sh · $6.8B
12.28%
0.9%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Vistra beats expectations, history suggests a positive reaction, potentially leading to a 2.5% increase in stock price.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 3.04%, reflecting the market's disappointment in the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on energy pricing trends and their impact on profitability.
2Management's commentary on operational efficiencies and cost management.
3Insights into demand forecasts for the upcoming quarters.
4Details on any regulatory changes affecting the energy market.
5Guidance on future capital expenditures and growth strategies.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Vistra Corp. (VST) operates in the utilities sector, focusing on independent power production and energy trading....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and investor sentiment.

1.46

Revenue

Revenue figures help gauge the company's overall sales performance and market demand.

5.2B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

VST Q2-2021 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 7Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

Avg EPS Surprise

-30.60%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.85%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2021, Vistra reported an EPS of -$4.21, significantly missing expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.04% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Vistra can capitalize on higher energy prices and improved demand, it may exceed earnings expectations, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected earnings or revenue, it could trigger further declines in stock price, especially given its recent poor performance.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

1.46

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and investor sentiment.

Revenue

5.2B

Revenue figures help gauge the company's overall sales performance and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.46?

A positive EPS surprise could boost investor confidence and lead to a stock price increase.

What factors contributed to revenue expectations of $5.2 billion?

Understanding revenue drivers will help assess the company's performance and market conditions.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising energy prices on Vistra's profitability this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 20.25% move, indicating high uncertainty that may not reflect actual performance.

The company has historically shown resilience in recovering from earnings misses, which could lead to a surprise this quarter.

Key Risk

If EPS exceeds $1.60, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and lead to a reevaluation of the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Vistra can recover from its recent earnings miss and capitalize on favorable market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

Reporting an EPS of $1.60 or higher would confirm a strong recovery and positive market sentiment.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.21 would signal ongoing challenges and could lead to further stock declines.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±20.25%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating uncertainty or volatility surrounding the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±20.2% while VST has averaged ±2.5% over the last 7 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

48.7%

Calls (853K)P/C Ratio: 0.39Puts (458K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Utilities

n=30

Fade rate: 14 of 30 (47%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

92.70%

of float

Insider

0.80%

of float

Holders

1,748

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Vanguard Group Inc
41,588,784 sh · $6.8B
12.28%
0.9%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Vistra beats expectations, history suggests a positive reaction, potentially leading to a 2.5% increase in stock price.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 3.04%, reflecting the market's disappointment in the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on energy pricing trends and their impact on profitability.
2Management's commentary on operational efficiencies and cost management.
3Insights into demand forecasts for the upcoming quarters.
4Details on any regulatory changes affecting the energy market.
5Guidance on future capital expenditures and growth strategies.