Equity Profile

WM

Waste Management, Inc.

IndustrialsEnvironmental & Facilities Services$95.1B

Apr28Tue

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:30 PM EDT

Waste Management Beats on EPS, Stock Up 0.51%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$1.81	$1.74	+3.55%
Revenue	N/A	$6.3B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Waste Management Beats on EPS, Stock Up 0.51%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$1.81	$1.74	+3.55%
Revenue	N/A	$6.3B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Cautiously Optimistic

Management expressed satisfaction with the EPS results, highlighting operational efficiency. However, they did not provide specific revenue figures or future guidance.

We are pleased with our EPS performance this quarter.

While we did not provide specific revenue figures, we remain focused on operational efficiency.

What It Means

Waste Management's stronger-than-expected EPS indicates effective cost management and operational performance. The stock's slight increase of 0.51% reflects investor confidence in the company's ability to navigate challenges, despite the lack of revenue data and forward guidance.

Company Snapshot

Waste Management, Inc. (WM) is a leading provider of waste management and environmental services in North America....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$1.74

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into the company's overall sales performance and demand for its services.

$6.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Waste Management, Inc. (WM) is a leading provider of waste management and environmental services in North America. The company plays a crucial role in managing waste and recycling, which is increasingly important as sustainability becomes a priority for both consumers and businesses.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+0.34%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.75%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Waste Management reported an EPS of $1.93, slightly missing estimates. The stock had a modest reaction, gaining 0.11% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Waste Management to report earnings that reflect stable demand for waste services, with a consensus EPS of $1.74 and revenue of $6.3 billion.

Bull Case

If the company exceeds EPS expectations, it could signal strong operational efficiency and a robust demand for waste management services, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

A miss on EPS or revenue could indicate challenges in maintaining profitability or demand, which might lead to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.74

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$6.3B

Total revenue gives insight into the company's overall sales performance and demand for its services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Waste Management's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.74?

A strong EPS could indicate better-than-expected operational efficiency and demand for services, which would be positively received by the market.

What commentary will management provide on revenue growth and demand trends?

Insights into revenue growth and demand can help gauge the company's future performance and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating the potential for Waste Management to exceed EPS expectations due to strong operational efficiencies that have not been fully recognized.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of beating EPS estimates 63% of the time, indicating potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating that investors are anticipating volatility.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in above $1.74, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment around the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be closely watched as they may reflect broader trends in the waste management industry and economic conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

EPS exceeding $1.74 with revenue above $6.3B would confirm strong demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

EPS below $1.58 or revenue below $6.2B would raise concerns about demand and profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.6%

Historical Avg

±1.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that investors expect volatility.

Options are pricing ±4.9% while WM has averaged ±1.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

19.4%

Calls (51K)P/C Ratio: 0.59Puts (30K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 17 (35%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 11 of 17 (65%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.6%, with a raw directional average of -0.4% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Waste Management beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.09% on average, confirming strong demand and efficiency.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty about future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.95% on average, indicating potential challenges in demand or profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
2Insights into demand trends for waste services in different sectors.
3Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.
4Details on any new contracts or partnerships that could drive revenue.
5Comments on sustainability initiatives and their impact on business.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Waste Management, Inc. (WM) is a leading provider of waste management and environmental services in North America....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$1.74

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into the company's overall sales performance and demand for its services.

$6.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+0.34%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.75%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Waste Management reported an EPS of $1.93, slightly missing estimates. The stock had a modest reaction, gaining 0.11% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Waste Management to report earnings that reflect stable demand for waste services, with a consensus EPS of $1.74 and revenue of $6.3 billion.

Bull Case

If the company exceeds EPS expectations, it could signal strong operational efficiency and a robust demand for waste management services, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

A miss on EPS or revenue could indicate challenges in maintaining profitability or demand, which might lead to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.74

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$6.3B

Total revenue gives insight into the company's overall sales performance and demand for its services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Waste Management's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.74?

A strong EPS could indicate better-than-expected operational efficiency and demand for services, which would be positively received by the market.

What commentary will management provide on revenue growth and demand trends?

Insights into revenue growth and demand can help gauge the company's future performance and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating the potential for Waste Management to exceed EPS expectations due to strong operational efficiencies that have not been fully recognized.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of beating EPS estimates 63% of the time, indicating potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating that investors are anticipating volatility.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in above $1.74, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment around the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be closely watched as they may reflect broader trends in the waste management industry and economic conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

EPS exceeding $1.74 with revenue above $6.3B would confirm strong demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

EPS below $1.58 or revenue below $6.2B would raise concerns about demand and profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.6%

Historical Avg

±1.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that investors expect volatility.

Options are pricing ±4.9% while WM has averaged ±1.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

19.4%

Calls (51K)P/C Ratio: 0.59Puts (30K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 17 (35%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Waste Management beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.09% on average, confirming strong demand and efficiency.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty about future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.95% on average, indicating potential challenges in demand or profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
2Insights into demand trends for waste services in different sectors.
3Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.
4Details on any new contracts or partnerships that could drive revenue.
5Comments on sustainability initiatives and their impact on business.