Equity Profile

YPF

YPF Sociedad AnÃ³nima

EnergyIntegrated Oil & Gas$19.4B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

YPF Sociedad Anónima is a major player in the energy sector, focusing on integrated oil and gas operations. With a market cap of $19 billion, the company is significant in the Latin American energy landscape, especially as global energy demands evolve.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will be keen to see if YPF can maintain or improve its earnings amidst market fluctuations.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share and respond to energy demand.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

YPF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-52.58%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.02%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, YPF reported an EPS of $1.03, exceeding expectations by nearly 25%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for YPF's upcoming earnings are cautious due to inconsistent historical performance. Investors are looking for signs of stability and growth.

Bull Case

If YPF can deliver strong earnings and positive revenue growth, it may signal a turnaround and increased investor confidence in the energy sector.

Bear Case

Conversely, if YPF fails to meet earnings expectations or shows declining revenue, it could lead to further skepticism about its long-term viability.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

A strong EPS could indicate improved profitability and boost investor confidence, while a weak EPS may raise concerns about the company's financial health.

How is YPF addressing operational costs in the current market?

Understanding cost management strategies will be crucial for evaluating YPF's ability to maintain margins and profitability in a volatile energy market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating YPF's potential for a strong recovery in earnings, given recent operational improvements and cost management strategies.

Supporting Evidence

YPF's recent EPS surprise of +24.85% indicates potential for continued strong performance.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors are anticipating volatility and potential upside.

Key Risk

If YPF can demonstrate effective cost management and improved operational efficiency, it could significantly exceed current earnings expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on YPF's ability to deliver solid earnings amidst fluctuating energy prices and operational challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

Earnings per share exceeding $1.10 would confirm the bull case and indicate strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.80 would support the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±22.73%

Historical Avg

±2.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±22.7% while YPF has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

44.4%

Calls (769K)P/C Ratio: 0.56Puts (25K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 24 of 30 (80%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If YPF beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +2.22%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately -1.30%, reinforcing concerns about the company's financial trajectory.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
2Insights into production levels and how they align with market demand.
3Comments on the outlook for energy prices and how YPF plans to navigate volatility.
4Details on any new projects or investments that could drive future growth.
5Management's perspective on competitive positioning in the energy sector.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will be keen to see if YPF can maintain or improve its earnings amidst market fluctuations.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share and respond to energy demand.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

YPF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-52.58%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.02%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, YPF reported an EPS of $1.03, exceeding expectations by nearly 25%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for YPF's upcoming earnings are cautious due to inconsistent historical performance. Investors are looking for signs of stability and growth.

Bull Case

If YPF can deliver strong earnings and positive revenue growth, it may signal a turnaround and increased investor confidence in the energy sector.

Bear Case

Conversely, if YPF fails to meet earnings expectations or shows declining revenue, it could lead to further skepticism about its long-term viability.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

A strong EPS could indicate improved profitability and boost investor confidence, while a weak EPS may raise concerns about the company's financial health.

How is YPF addressing operational costs in the current market?

Understanding cost management strategies will be crucial for evaluating YPF's ability to maintain margins and profitability in a volatile energy market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating YPF's potential for a strong recovery in earnings, given recent operational improvements and cost management strategies.

Supporting Evidence

YPF's recent EPS surprise of +24.85% indicates potential for continued strong performance.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors are anticipating volatility and potential upside.

Key Risk

If YPF can demonstrate effective cost management and improved operational efficiency, it could significantly exceed current earnings expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on YPF's ability to deliver solid earnings amidst fluctuating energy prices and operational challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

Earnings per share exceeding $1.10 would confirm the bull case and indicate strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.80 would support the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±22.73%

Historical Avg

±2.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±22.7% while YPF has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

44.4%

Calls (769K)P/C Ratio: 0.56Puts (25K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If YPF beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +2.22%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately -1.30%, reinforcing concerns about the company's financial trajectory.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
2Insights into production levels and how they align with market demand.
3Comments on the outlook for energy prices and how YPF plans to navigate volatility.
4Details on any new projects or investments that could drive future growth.
5Management's perspective on competitive positioning in the energy sector.