Equity Profile

YPF

YPF Sociedad AnÃ³nima

EnergyIntegrated Oil & Gas$19.4B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

YPF Sociedad Anónima is a major player in the energy sector, primarily involved in integrated oil and gas operations. With a market cap of $19 billion, the company is significant in the Latin American energy landscape, focusing on exploration, production, and refining of oil and gas, which are essential for meeting global energy demands.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability and will show how well YPF has managed its costs and revenues this quarter.

$1.00

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its operations and market share in a competitive environment.

$5.5 billion

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

YPF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-52.58%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.02%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, YPF reported an EPS of $1.03, exceeding expectations by nearly 25%. However, the stock fell slightly the next day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the earnings surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on increasing production efficiency.
Commitment to reducing operational costs.
Plans to enhance exploration activities.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about YPF's upcoming earnings, given the recent positive EPS surprise. However, concerns about revenue stability and production levels remain prevalent.

Bull Case

If YPF can demonstrate strong revenue growth and maintain or increase production levels, it may lead to a significant positive reaction in the stock price.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet revenue expectations or reports declining production, it could lead to further stock declines, especially given the recent mixed performance.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$1.00

EPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability and will show how well YPF has managed its costs and revenues this quarter.

Revenue Growth

$5.5 billion

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its operations and market share in a competitive environment.

Production Levels

500,000 barrels per day

Production levels indicate the company's operational efficiency and capacity to meet market demand, which is vital for revenue generation.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to the $1.00 consensus?

Given the recent positive surprise, any significant deviation from expectations could heavily influence market sentiment.

How are production levels tracking against the expected 500,000 barrels per day?

Production levels are critical for revenue; any shortfall could raise concerns about the company's operational efficiency.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating YPF's ability to leverage recent operational improvements to boost production and profitability.

Supporting Evidence

Recent EPS surprise indicates potential for continued operational efficiency.

Options pricing suggests higher volatility, indicating that traders expect significant movement based on upcoming results.

Key Risk

If production levels exceed 500,000 barrels per day, it could significantly alter the market's perception of YPF's growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating YPF's ability to sustain profitability and production levels amid fluctuating energy prices.

Bull Confirmed If

EPS exceeding $1.00 with production levels at or above 500,000 barrels per day would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

EPS falling below $0.80 or production levels dropping significantly could confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±22.73%

Historical Avg

±2.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±22.7% while YPF has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

44.4%

Calls (769K)P/C Ratio: 0.56Puts (25K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If YPF beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +2.22%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately -1.30%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on production levels and any changes to guidance.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Insights into market demand for oil and gas in the upcoming quarters.
4Any commentary on geopolitical factors affecting operations.
5Plans for future exploration and investment in new technologies.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability and will show how well YPF has managed its costs and revenues this quarter.

$1.00

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its operations and market share in a competitive environment.

$5.5 billion

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

YPF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-52.58%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.02%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, YPF reported an EPS of $1.03, exceeding expectations by nearly 25%. However, the stock fell slightly the next day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the earnings surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on increasing production efficiency.
Commitment to reducing operational costs.
Plans to enhance exploration activities.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about YPF's upcoming earnings, given the recent positive EPS surprise. However, concerns about revenue stability and production levels remain prevalent.

Bull Case

If YPF can demonstrate strong revenue growth and maintain or increase production levels, it may lead to a significant positive reaction in the stock price.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet revenue expectations or reports declining production, it could lead to further stock declines, especially given the recent mixed performance.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$1.00

EPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability and will show how well YPF has managed its costs and revenues this quarter.

Revenue Growth

$5.5 billion

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its operations and market share in a competitive environment.

Production Levels

500,000 barrels per day

Production levels indicate the company's operational efficiency and capacity to meet market demand, which is vital for revenue generation.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to the $1.00 consensus?

Given the recent positive surprise, any significant deviation from expectations could heavily influence market sentiment.

How are production levels tracking against the expected 500,000 barrels per day?

Production levels are critical for revenue; any shortfall could raise concerns about the company's operational efficiency.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating YPF's ability to leverage recent operational improvements to boost production and profitability.

Supporting Evidence

Recent EPS surprise indicates potential for continued operational efficiency.

Options pricing suggests higher volatility, indicating that traders expect significant movement based on upcoming results.

Key Risk

If production levels exceed 500,000 barrels per day, it could significantly alter the market's perception of YPF's growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating YPF's ability to sustain profitability and production levels amid fluctuating energy prices.

Bull Confirmed If

EPS exceeding $1.00 with production levels at or above 500,000 barrels per day would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

EPS falling below $0.80 or production levels dropping significantly could confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±22.73%

Historical Avg

±2.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±22.7% while YPF has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

44.4%

Calls (769K)P/C Ratio: 0.56Puts (25K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If YPF beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +2.22%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately -1.30%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on production levels and any changes to guidance.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Insights into market demand for oil and gas in the upcoming quarters.
4Any commentary on geopolitical factors affecting operations.
5Plans for future exploration and investment in new technologies.