Equity Profile

YPF

YPF Sociedad AnÃ³nima

EnergyIntegrated Oil & Gas$20.8B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

YPF Sociedad Anónima operates in the energy sector, focusing on integrated oil and gas operations. As a major player in Argentina's energy market, its performance is closely tied to oil prices and domestic energy policies, making it a key company to watch in the context of global energy trends.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a critical indicator of the company's profitability and performance relative to expectations.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will provide insight into the company's ability to expand its operations and market share in a competitive environment.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

YPF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-52.58%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.02%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, YPF reported an EPS of $1.03, exceeding estimates by nearly 25%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about YPF's upcoming earnings report, especially after the positive surprise in Q1-2026. However, the company's recent history of earnings misses raises concerns.

Bull Case

If YPF can maintain or exceed its recent EPS performance, it could signal a strong recovery and improved operational efficiency, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if YPF fails to meet expectations again, it may reinforce concerns about its profitability and operational challenges, potentially leading to further stock declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a key metric that investors will use to gauge the company's profitability and operational success this quarter.

How have oil prices impacted revenue this quarter?

Understanding the relationship between oil prices and revenue will help investors assess the company's performance in the current market environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating YPF's ability to capitalize on recent oil price increases, which could lead to better-than-expected revenue growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The recent EPS surprise indicates that YPF may be more resilient than previously thought.

Options pricing suggests that traders expect significant volatility, which could indicate a potential for a positive surprise.

Key Risk

If oil prices stabilize or increase significantly, it could lead to a revenue boost that the Street isn't fully accounting for.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating YPF's ability to sustain profitability amidst fluctuating oil prices and operational challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.20 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.80 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±22.73%

Historical Avg

±2.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±22.7% while YPF has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

44.4%

Calls (769K)P/C Ratio: 0.56Puts (25K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 24 of 30 (80%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If YPF beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.22%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction, as investors await further guidance on future performance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, the stock could decline by approximately 1.30%, reinforcing concerns about its operational challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on oil price forecasts and their expected impact on revenue.
2Management's commentary on operational efficiency improvements.
3Insights into market share changes in the domestic energy sector.
4Any guidance on future earnings expectations.
5Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a critical indicator of the company's profitability and performance relative to expectations.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will provide insight into the company's ability to expand its operations and market share in a competitive environment.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

YPF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-52.58%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.02%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, YPF reported an EPS of $1.03, exceeding estimates by nearly 25%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about YPF's upcoming earnings report, especially after the positive surprise in Q1-2026. However, the company's recent history of earnings misses raises concerns.

Bull Case

If YPF can maintain or exceed its recent EPS performance, it could signal a strong recovery and improved operational efficiency, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if YPF fails to meet expectations again, it may reinforce concerns about its profitability and operational challenges, potentially leading to further stock declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a key metric that investors will use to gauge the company's profitability and operational success this quarter.

How have oil prices impacted revenue this quarter?

Understanding the relationship between oil prices and revenue will help investors assess the company's performance in the current market environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating YPF's ability to capitalize on recent oil price increases, which could lead to better-than-expected revenue growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The recent EPS surprise indicates that YPF may be more resilient than previously thought.

Options pricing suggests that traders expect significant volatility, which could indicate a potential for a positive surprise.

Key Risk

If oil prices stabilize or increase significantly, it could lead to a revenue boost that the Street isn't fully accounting for.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating YPF's ability to sustain profitability amidst fluctuating oil prices and operational challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.20 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.80 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±22.73%

Historical Avg

±2.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±22.7% while YPF has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

44.4%

Calls (769K)P/C Ratio: 0.56Puts (25K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If YPF beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.22%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction, as investors await further guidance on future performance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, the stock could decline by approximately 1.30%, reinforcing concerns about its operational challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on oil price forecasts and their expected impact on revenue.
2Management's commentary on operational efficiency improvements.
3Insights into market share changes in the domestic energy sector.
4Any guidance on future earnings expectations.
5Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.