Equity Profile

AAON

AAON, Inc.

IndustrialsBuilding Products$10.9B

Aug10Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

AAON, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment, primarily serving the commercial and industrial sectors....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of a company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market share and drive sales, which is critical for long-term success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AAON Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

AAON, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment, primarily serving the commercial and industrial sectors. As a player in the building products industry, AAON is positioned to benefit from trends in energy efficiency and sustainable construction, which are increasingly important in today's market.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.70%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.44%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, AAON reported an EPS of $0.48, significantly beating expectations of $0.31, which led to a 31.49% increase in stock price the following day. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are generally optimistic about AAON's upcoming earnings, especially following a strong performance last quarter. However, the lack of analyst estimates and management guidance introduces uncertainty.

Bull Case

If AAON continues to demonstrate strong earnings growth and manages to expand its revenue, it could solidify its position in the market and attract more investors.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of slowing growth, it could lead to a negative reaction from the market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS figure for Q2-2026?

Given the strong surprise in the previous quarter, investors will closely monitor EPS to gauge continued profitability and growth.

How is AAON managing supply chain challenges and cost pressures?

Understanding the company's approach to these issues will be crucial for assessing its ability to maintain margins and revenue growth.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating AAON's ability to leverage its recent operational efficiencies, which could lead to better-than-expected margins.

Supporting Evidence

The strong EPS surprise in Q1-2026 indicates that the company has potential for continued growth.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating that traders anticipate significant developments.

Insider selling could reflect a strategic move rather than a lack of confidence in the company's future.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $0.50, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment and shift investor expectations positively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will either reinforce the positive momentum from last quarter or raise concerns about future growth.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or higher would confirm the bullish outlook and suggest strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30 would indicate potential issues in profitability and could lead to a negative market reaction.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±32.24%

Historical Avg

±10.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±32.2% while AAON has averaged ±10.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

96.4%

Calls (9K)P/C Ratio: 0.08Puts (4K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$1.4M

14,804 sh

2 insiders

Net

$1.4M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 5 open-market trades

Chief Administration OfficerKidwell Casey
$470,250.00

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AAON beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 8.28%, confirming the bullish sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess their outlook.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 9.97%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on supply chain management and cost control measures.
2Details on revenue growth in key product segments.
3Insights into customer demand trends and market conditions.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and operational efficiency.
5Any commentary on competitive positioning in the HVAC market.

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Company Snapshot

AAON, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment, primarily serving the commercial and industrial sectors....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of a company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market share and drive sales, which is critical for long-term success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AAON Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.70%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.44%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If AAON continues to demonstrate strong earnings growth and manages to expand its revenue, it could solidify its position in the market and attract more investors.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of slowing growth, it could lead to a negative reaction from the market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS figure for Q2-2026?

Given the strong surprise in the previous quarter, investors will closely monitor EPS to gauge continued profitability and growth.

How is AAON managing supply chain challenges and cost pressures?

Understanding the company's approach to these issues will be crucial for assessing its ability to maintain margins and revenue growth.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating AAON's ability to leverage its recent operational efficiencies, which could lead to better-than-expected margins.

Supporting Evidence

The strong EPS surprise in Q1-2026 indicates that the company has potential for continued growth.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating that traders anticipate significant developments.

Insider selling could reflect a strategic move rather than a lack of confidence in the company's future.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $0.50, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment and shift investor expectations positively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will either reinforce the positive momentum from last quarter or raise concerns about future growth.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or higher would confirm the bullish outlook and suggest strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30 would indicate potential issues in profitability and could lead to a negative market reaction.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±32.24%

Historical Avg

±10.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±32.2% while AAON has averaged ±10.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

96.4%

Calls (9K)P/C Ratio: 0.08Puts (4K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$1.4M

14,804 sh

2 insiders

Net

$1.4M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 5 open-market trades

Chief Administration OfficerKidwell Casey
$470,250.00

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AAON beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 8.28%, confirming the bullish sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess their outlook.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 9.97%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on supply chain management and cost control measures.
2Details on revenue growth in key product segments.
3Insights into customer demand trends and market conditions.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and operational efficiency.
5Any commentary on competitive positioning in the HVAC market.