Equity Profile

CLMT

Calumet, Inc.

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$3.4B

Aug7Fri

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) operates in the energy sector, specifically focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will closely watch if Calumet can improve from its recent losses.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate how well the company is navigating the current energy market dynamics.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CLMT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) operates in the energy sector, specifically focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $3 billion, the company plays a significant role in the energy supply chain, impacting fuel availability and pricing.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.37%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.19%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Calumet reported an EPS of -$3.64, significantly missing expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 7.31% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Calumet's upcoming earnings are uncertain, given the recent history of significant EPS misses. Investors are looking for signs of recovery.

Bull Case

If Calumet can show a turnaround in EPS and improved refining margins, it could signal a strong recovery and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued losses or further declines in refining margins could lead to a negative reaction from the market, especially after recent disappointing results.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS figure for Q2-2026, and can it show improvement from the previous quarter?

Given the significant losses reported in recent quarters, any improvement in EPS will be critical for restoring investor confidence.

How are refining margins trending in the current market environment?

Refining margins directly impact profitability, and understanding their trajectory will be vital for assessing the company's financial health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Calumet's potential for a turnaround, as recent operational adjustments could lead to improved refining margins.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a move lower than historical averages, suggesting potential undervaluation.

Calumet's past performance indicates that significant surprises can occur, as seen in Q3-2025 with a massive EPS beat.

Key Risk

If refining margins show unexpected strength, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is crucial as it follows a series of disappointing results, and the market is eager to see signs of recovery.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS of $0.50 or better would confirm the bull case and suggest a recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than -$3.00 would confirm the bear case and indicate ongoing struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.72%

Historical Avg

±7.12%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a moderate move around earnings, suggesting that investors are expecting some volatility.

Options are pricing a 5.72% move, while the stock has averaged a 7.12% move historically, indicating a potentially undervalued setup.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

48.0%

Calls (95K)P/C Ratio: 0.25Puts (63K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing cheap setup in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 17 of 29 (59%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 17 of 29 faded and 12 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.5%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Calumet beats expectations with a positive EPS and improved margins, history suggests the stock could see a modest uptick of around 0.66% on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but without significant commentary, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting the market's cautious stance.

Miss

A significant miss could lead to a decline of about 0.66% on the first day, as seen in past quarters.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on operational efficiencies or cost-cutting measures.
2Management's outlook on refining margins and market conditions.
3Details on any new contracts or partnerships that could impact revenue.
4Insights into how the company plans to navigate current market challenges.
5Any commentary on long-term strategic goals and adjustments.

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Company Snapshot

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) operates in the energy sector, specifically focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will closely watch if Calumet can improve from its recent losses.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate how well the company is navigating the current energy market dynamics.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CLMT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.37%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.19%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Calumet reported an EPS of -$3.64, significantly missing expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 7.31% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Calumet's upcoming earnings are uncertain, given the recent history of significant EPS misses. Investors are looking for signs of recovery.

Bull Case

If Calumet can show a turnaround in EPS and improved refining margins, it could signal a strong recovery and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued losses or further declines in refining margins could lead to a negative reaction from the market, especially after recent disappointing results.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS figure for Q2-2026, and can it show improvement from the previous quarter?

Given the significant losses reported in recent quarters, any improvement in EPS will be critical for restoring investor confidence.

How are refining margins trending in the current market environment?

Refining margins directly impact profitability, and understanding their trajectory will be vital for assessing the company's financial health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Calumet's potential for a turnaround, as recent operational adjustments could lead to improved refining margins.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a move lower than historical averages, suggesting potential undervaluation.

Calumet's past performance indicates that significant surprises can occur, as seen in Q3-2025 with a massive EPS beat.

Key Risk

If refining margins show unexpected strength, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is crucial as it follows a series of disappointing results, and the market is eager to see signs of recovery.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS of $0.50 or better would confirm the bull case and suggest a recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than -$3.00 would confirm the bear case and indicate ongoing struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.72%

Historical Avg

±7.12%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a moderate move around earnings, suggesting that investors are expecting some volatility.

Options are pricing a 5.72% move, while the stock has averaged a 7.12% move historically, indicating a potentially undervalued setup.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

48.0%

Calls (95K)P/C Ratio: 0.25Puts (63K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing cheap setup in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 17 of 29 (59%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Calumet beats expectations with a positive EPS and improved margins, history suggests the stock could see a modest uptick of around 0.66% on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but without significant commentary, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting the market's cautious stance.

Miss

A significant miss could lead to a decline of about 0.66% on the first day, as seen in past quarters.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on operational efficiencies or cost-cutting measures.
2Management's outlook on refining margins and market conditions.
3Details on any new contracts or partnerships that could impact revenue.
4Insights into how the company plans to navigate current market challenges.
5Any commentary on long-term strategic goals and adjustments.