Equity Profile

CLMT

Calumet, Inc.

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$3.1B

Aug7Fri

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will provide insight into the company's financial health this quarter.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue figures will help assess the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CLMT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $3 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the energy supply chain, especially as global energy demands fluctuate.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.37%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.19%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Calumet reported an EPS of -$3.64, significantly missing estimates and reflecting ongoing challenges. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 7.31% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautious ahead of the upcoming earnings report, given the company's recent struggles with profitability. The lack of analyst estimates adds to the uncertainty.

Bull Case

If Calumet can show a strong recovery in EPS and revenue, it may signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence and stock price.

Bear Case

Continued losses or another significant miss could lead to further declines in stock price, as investors may lose faith in the company's ability to recover.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS figure be this quarter?

Given the company's recent history of significant EPS misses, this number will be critical in determining market sentiment.

How is revenue trending compared to previous quarters?

Revenue trends will provide insight into demand for Calumet's products and its overall market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Calumet's potential for recovery, given its recent operational adjustments and market conditions.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 5.72% move, which is below the historical average of 7.12%.

Calumet's prior EPS surprises have shown significant variability, indicating potential for a rebound.

The recent drop in stock price may have already priced in negative sentiment, leaving room for positive surprises.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in better than -$3.00, it could shift market sentiment significantly.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching Calumet's ability to recover from recent losses and improve its financial performance.

Bull Confirmed If

A return to positive EPS, ideally above $0.50, would confirm a bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than -$3.00 would reinforce bearish sentiment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.72%

Historical Avg

±7.1%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 5.72%, indicating that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±5.7% while CLMT has averaged ±7.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

48.0%

Calls (95K)P/C Ratio: 0.25Puts (63K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing cheap setup in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 17 of 29 (59%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 17 of 29 faded and 12 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.5%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Calumet beats expectations, history suggests a modest positive reaction, potentially confirming a turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain stable, but cautious commentary could lead to volatility.

Miss

A significant miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 0.66% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
2Updates on market demand for refined products and pricing trends.
3Insights into operational changes that may impact future performance.
4Details on any strategic partnerships or contracts that could enhance revenue.
5Management's outlook on the energy market and its impact on Calumet's business.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

BP p.l.c.

Company Snapshot

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will provide insight into the company's financial health this quarter.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue figures will help assess the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CLMT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.37%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.19%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Calumet reported an EPS of -$3.64, significantly missing estimates and reflecting ongoing challenges. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 7.31% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautious ahead of the upcoming earnings report, given the company's recent struggles with profitability. The lack of analyst estimates adds to the uncertainty.

Bull Case

If Calumet can show a strong recovery in EPS and revenue, it may signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence and stock price.

Bear Case

Continued losses or another significant miss could lead to further declines in stock price, as investors may lose faith in the company's ability to recover.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS figure be this quarter?

Given the company's recent history of significant EPS misses, this number will be critical in determining market sentiment.

How is revenue trending compared to previous quarters?

Revenue trends will provide insight into demand for Calumet's products and its overall market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Calumet's potential for recovery, given its recent operational adjustments and market conditions.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 5.72% move, which is below the historical average of 7.12%.

Calumet's prior EPS surprises have shown significant variability, indicating potential for a rebound.

The recent drop in stock price may have already priced in negative sentiment, leaving room for positive surprises.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in better than -$3.00, it could shift market sentiment significantly.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching Calumet's ability to recover from recent losses and improve its financial performance.

Bull Confirmed If

A return to positive EPS, ideally above $0.50, would confirm a bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than -$3.00 would reinforce bearish sentiment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.72%

Historical Avg

±7.1%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 5.72%, indicating that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±5.7% while CLMT has averaged ±7.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

48.0%

Calls (95K)P/C Ratio: 0.25Puts (63K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing cheap setup in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 17 of 29 (59%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Calumet beats expectations, history suggests a modest positive reaction, potentially confirming a turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain stable, but cautious commentary could lead to volatility.

Miss

A significant miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 0.66% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
2Updates on market demand for refined products and pricing trends.
3Insights into operational changes that may impact future performance.
4Details on any strategic partnerships or contracts that could enhance revenue.
5Management's outlook on the energy market and its impact on Calumet's business.