Equity Profile

ACI

Albertsons Companies, Inc.

Consumer StaplesFood Retail$8.1B

Jul21Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI) is a major player in the food retail sector, operating grocery stores across the United States....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Same-Store Sales Growth

This metric reflects how existing stores are performing and is critical for understanding customer demand and retention.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ACI Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI) is a major player in the food retail sector, operating grocery stores across the United States. As a consumer staples company, it plays a crucial role in providing essential goods, especially during times of economic uncertainty when consumer spending on necessities remains stable.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+14.81%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.60%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Albertsons reported an EPS of $0.48, exceeding expectations by 22.14%. However, the stock declined by 3.03% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions despite the positive earnings surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, given Albertsons' consistent ability to beat EPS estimates in recent quarters. However, concerns about inflation and consumer spending could weigh on results.

Bull Case

If Albertsons continues its trend of beating EPS estimates and shows strong same-store sales growth, it could signal robust demand and effective cost management, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected same-store sales or declining margins, it could raise concerns about its competitive position and lead to a negative stock response.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the same-store sales growth rate for the quarter?

This metric will indicate how well Albertsons is retaining customers and competing in the grocery sector, which is crucial for future growth.

How has gross margin been affected by inflationary pressures?

Understanding the impact of costs on margins will provide insight into the company's pricing power and overall profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Albertsons' ability to navigate inflationary pressures due to its strong brand loyalty and diversified product offerings.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating effective cost management.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating potential volatility.

Recent trends in grocery spending show resilience, which could benefit Albertsons.

Key Risk

If same-store sales growth comes in below 2%, it could challenge the optimistic outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Albertsons can maintain its profitability amidst rising costs and changing consumer behavior.

Bull Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth of +5% or better would confirm strong consumer demand and effective management.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in gross margin below 25% would indicate significant cost pressures and could raise concerns about profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.82%

Historical Avg

±4.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.8% while ACI has averaged ±4.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

28.8%

Calls (28K)P/C Ratio: 0.57Puts (25K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 27 (33%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Staples in the last 2 years. 18 of 27 (67%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Albertsons beats expectations, history suggests a typical stock move of around +4.81%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report could lead to muted reactions as investors weigh the implications of management's commentary on future growth.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history indicates a potential decline of around -5.06%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on strategies to combat inflation and maintain margins.
2Insights into consumer behavior trends and how they are affecting sales.
3Management's outlook on future growth and expansion plans.
4Details on cost management initiatives and their effectiveness.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the grocery sector.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI) is a major player in the food retail sector, operating grocery stores across the United States....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Same-Store Sales Growth

This metric reflects how existing stores are performing and is critical for understanding customer demand and retention.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ACI Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+14.81%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.60%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Albertsons continues its trend of beating EPS estimates and shows strong same-store sales growth, it could signal robust demand and effective cost management, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected same-store sales or declining margins, it could raise concerns about its competitive position and lead to a negative stock response.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the same-store sales growth rate for the quarter?

This metric will indicate how well Albertsons is retaining customers and competing in the grocery sector, which is crucial for future growth.

How has gross margin been affected by inflationary pressures?

Understanding the impact of costs on margins will provide insight into the company's pricing power and overall profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Albertsons' ability to navigate inflationary pressures due to its strong brand loyalty and diversified product offerings.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating effective cost management.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating potential volatility.

Recent trends in grocery spending show resilience, which could benefit Albertsons.

Key Risk

If same-store sales growth comes in below 2%, it could challenge the optimistic outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Albertsons can maintain its profitability amidst rising costs and changing consumer behavior.

Bull Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth of +5% or better would confirm strong consumer demand and effective management.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in gross margin below 25% would indicate significant cost pressures and could raise concerns about profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.82%

Historical Avg

±4.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.8% while ACI has averaged ±4.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

28.8%

Calls (28K)P/C Ratio: 0.57Puts (25K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 27 (33%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Albertsons beats expectations, history suggests a typical stock move of around +4.81%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report could lead to muted reactions as investors weigh the implications of management's commentary on future growth.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history indicates a potential decline of around -5.06%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on strategies to combat inflation and maintain margins.
2Insights into consumer behavior trends and how they are affecting sales.
3Management's outlook on future growth and expansion plans.
4Details on cost management initiatives and their effectiveness.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the grocery sector.