Equity Profile

AEM

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited

MaterialsGold$71.8B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) is a leading gold mining company focused on the exploration, development, and production of gold in Canada and other regions. With a market cap of $72 billion, it plays a significant role in the materials sector, particularly as gold remains a key asset during economic uncertainty.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.

N/A

Gold Production Volume

This metric reflects the company's operational efficiency and ability to meet market demand, which is crucial for revenue generation.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AEM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+12.07%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.11%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Agnico Eagle reported an EPS of $3.41, exceeding estimates by 6.90%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.53% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on operational efficiency and cost management.
Commitment to maintaining strong production levels.
Plans to explore new mining opportunities to enhance growth.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are cautiously optimistic as Agnico Eagle has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates. However, fluctuations in gold prices and production levels could impact results.

Bull Case

If gold prices remain strong and production levels are high, the company could report significantly better results than expected, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if production falls short or gold prices decline, the company could miss expectations, resulting in a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the gold production volume for Q2-2026?

Production volume is crucial for revenue and can significantly influence investor sentiment and stock performance.

How have gold prices impacted revenue expectations for the quarter?

Understanding the relationship between gold prices and revenue will help gauge the company's profitability and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may underestimate the impact of rising gold prices on Agnico Eagle's profitability this quarter, especially given the company's strong production capabilities.

Supporting Evidence

Agnico Eagle has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting strong operational management.

Options are pricing a 4% move, but historical data shows the stock has averaged only 2% moves, indicating potential overestimation of volatility.

Recent trends in gold prices have shown resilience, which could positively impact revenue.

Key Risk

If gold prices rise above $2,000 per ounce, it could significantly enhance revenue expectations, challenging current market assumptions.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on production levels and gold prices, which are critical for revenue generation.

Bull Confirmed If

Gold production exceeding 500,000 ounces would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

Production below 400,000 ounces would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about operational efficiency.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.0%

Historical Avg

±2.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±4.0% while AEM has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

46.1%

Calls (297K)P/C Ratio: 0.09Puts (133K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 14 of 30 (47%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 14 of 30 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +0.3% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

71.93%

of float

Insider

0.07%

of float

Holders

1,598

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Capital World Investors
21,338,277 sh · $4.3B
4.26%
2.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Agnico Eagle beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2% on the first day, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 1.27%, as historical patterns indicate negative reactions to earnings misses.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on gold production targets for Q2-2026.
2Any commentary on the impact of gold price fluctuations on revenue.
3Insights into operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
4Details on new exploration projects and their potential impact on growth.
5Management's outlook on the gold market for the remainder of the year.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.

N/A

Gold Production Volume

This metric reflects the company's operational efficiency and ability to meet market demand, which is crucial for revenue generation.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AEM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+12.07%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.11%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Agnico Eagle reported an EPS of $3.41, exceeding estimates by 6.90%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.53% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on operational efficiency and cost management.
Commitment to maintaining strong production levels.
Plans to explore new mining opportunities to enhance growth.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are cautiously optimistic as Agnico Eagle has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates. However, fluctuations in gold prices and production levels could impact results.

Bull Case

If gold prices remain strong and production levels are high, the company could report significantly better results than expected, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if production falls short or gold prices decline, the company could miss expectations, resulting in a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the gold production volume for Q2-2026?

Production volume is crucial for revenue and can significantly influence investor sentiment and stock performance.

How have gold prices impacted revenue expectations for the quarter?

Understanding the relationship between gold prices and revenue will help gauge the company's profitability and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may underestimate the impact of rising gold prices on Agnico Eagle's profitability this quarter, especially given the company's strong production capabilities.

Supporting Evidence

Agnico Eagle has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting strong operational management.

Options are pricing a 4% move, but historical data shows the stock has averaged only 2% moves, indicating potential overestimation of volatility.

Recent trends in gold prices have shown resilience, which could positively impact revenue.

Key Risk

If gold prices rise above $2,000 per ounce, it could significantly enhance revenue expectations, challenging current market assumptions.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on production levels and gold prices, which are critical for revenue generation.

Bull Confirmed If

Gold production exceeding 500,000 ounces would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

Production below 400,000 ounces would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about operational efficiency.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.0%

Historical Avg

±2.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±4.0% while AEM has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

46.1%

Calls (297K)P/C Ratio: 0.09Puts (133K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 14 of 30 (47%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

71.93%

of float

Insider

0.07%

of float

Holders

1,598

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Capital World Investors
21,338,277 sh · $4.3B
4.26%
2.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Agnico Eagle beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2% on the first day, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 1.27%, as historical patterns indicate negative reactions to earnings misses.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on gold production targets for Q2-2026.
2Any commentary on the impact of gold price fluctuations on revenue.
3Insights into operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
4Details on new exploration projects and their potential impact on growth.
5Management's outlook on the gold market for the remainder of the year.