Equity Profile

ALMS

Alumis Inc.

Health CarePharmaceuticals$2.8B

Aug12Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Alumis Inc. is a pharmaceutical company focused on developing innovative healthcare solutions....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and market share, which is vital for long-term success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ALMS Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Alumis Inc. is a pharmaceutical company focused on developing innovative healthcare solutions. Operating in the health care sector, it plays a crucial role in addressing medical needs and improving patient outcomes.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 2Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-682.62%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.83%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Alumis reported an EPS of -$0.74, which was better than the expected -$0.79, resulting in a 6.09% surprise. However, the stock fell by 0.93% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as there are no analyst estimates available. The market is uncertain about the company's ability to deliver positive results.

Bull Case

If Alumis can show significant improvement in EPS and revenue growth, it may signal a turnaround that could boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to report losses and fails to provide a clear path to profitability, it could lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected EPS for this quarter?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could heavily influence stock performance.

How much is being invested in R&D this quarter?

R&D spending is essential for future growth and innovation in the pharmaceutical sector, and insights here can signal the company's long-term strategy.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a turnaround in EPS based on recent operational improvements that have not been fully recognized.

Supporting Evidence

The last quarter showed a positive surprise in EPS, indicating potential for continued improvement.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, reflecting uncertainty that could lead to a positive surprise.

Historical patterns show that the stock has reacted positively to unexpected improvements in earnings.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in better than expected, it could shift market sentiment significantly.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Alumis can demonstrate progress toward profitability and effective investment in R&D.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS surprise of at least $0.10 would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $0.80 would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±56.56%

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating high uncertainty surrounding the upcoming earnings report.

Detail

ATM IV

1.2%

30d HV

56.7%

Calls (1K)P/C Ratio: 0.00Puts (6K)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

77.10%

of float

Insider

0.62%

of float

Holders

197

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Ayurmaya Capital Management Company, LP
15,139,706 sh · $377.4M
12.29%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Alumis beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.76%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may see a muted response as investors weigh future guidance.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 4.59%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on the company's R&D pipeline and upcoming product launches.
2Any updates on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
3Insights into market conditions and competitive landscape affecting sales.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and revenue growth.
5Responses to analysts' questions regarding operational challenges.

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Company Snapshot

Alumis Inc. is a pharmaceutical company focused on developing innovative healthcare solutions....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and market share, which is vital for long-term success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ALMS Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 2Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-682.62%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.83%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Alumis reported an EPS of -$0.74, which was better than the expected -$0.79, resulting in a 6.09% surprise. However, the stock fell by 0.93% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as there are no analyst estimates available. The market is uncertain about the company's ability to deliver positive results.

Bull Case

If Alumis can show significant improvement in EPS and revenue growth, it may signal a turnaround that could boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to report losses and fails to provide a clear path to profitability, it could lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected EPS for this quarter?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could heavily influence stock performance.

How much is being invested in R&D this quarter?

R&D spending is essential for future growth and innovation in the pharmaceutical sector, and insights here can signal the company's long-term strategy.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a turnaround in EPS based on recent operational improvements that have not been fully recognized.

Supporting Evidence

The last quarter showed a positive surprise in EPS, indicating potential for continued improvement.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, reflecting uncertainty that could lead to a positive surprise.

Historical patterns show that the stock has reacted positively to unexpected improvements in earnings.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in better than expected, it could shift market sentiment significantly.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Alumis can demonstrate progress toward profitability and effective investment in R&D.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS surprise of at least $0.10 would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $0.80 would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±56.56%

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating high uncertainty surrounding the upcoming earnings report.

Detail

ATM IV

1.2%

30d HV

56.7%

Calls (1K)P/C Ratio: 0.00Puts (6K)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

77.10%

of float

Insider

0.62%

of float

Holders

197

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Ayurmaya Capital Management Company, LP
15,139,706 sh · $377.4M
12.29%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Alumis beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.76%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may see a muted response as investors weigh future guidance.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 4.59%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on the company's R&D pipeline and upcoming product launches.
2Any updates on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
3Insights into market conditions and competitive landscape affecting sales.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and revenue growth.
5Responses to analysts' questions regarding operational challenges.