Equity Profile

ALMS

Alumis Inc.

Health CarePharmaceuticals$3.6B

Aug12Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Alumis Inc. is a pharmaceutical company in the health care sector, focused on developing innovative therapies....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenue.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market presence and is crucial for long-term sustainability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ALMS Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Alumis Inc. is a pharmaceutical company in the health care sector, focused on developing innovative therapies. With a market cap of $4 billion, its performance is closely watched as it navigates the competitive landscape of drug development and regulatory challenges.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 2Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-682.62%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.83%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Alumis reported an EPS of -$0.74, slightly better than the expected -$0.79, but revenue details were not disclosed. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 0.93% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as there are no analyst estimates available. The market is likely anticipating more clarity on revenue and future guidance.

Bull Case

A strong earnings report with better-than-expected EPS could signal improved operational efficiency and investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

If the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, reflecting concerns about its future prospects.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for this quarter?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.

How much has the company invested in R&D this quarter?

R&D spending is crucial for future growth in pharmaceuticals, and insights into this could indicate the company's commitment to innovation.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for cost-cutting measures to improve EPS significantly this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The recent EPS surprise of +6.09% indicates that the company may be managing costs better than anticipated.

Historical patterns show that even with misses, the stock has reacted positively in the past, suggesting resilience.

Key Risk

If R&D spending is significantly higher than expected, it could raise concerns about profitability.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Alumis can turn around its financial performance and maintain its competitive edge in the pharmaceutical industry.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of -$0.50 or better would confirm the bull case and suggest improved operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than -$1.00 would confirm the bear case and raise concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±56.56%

The options market is pricing a significant move in either direction, indicating uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.

Detail

ATM IV

1.2%

30d HV

56.7%

Calls (1K)P/C Ratio: 0.00Puts (6K)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

77.10%

of float

Insider

0.62%

of float

Holders

197

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Ayurmaya Capital Management Company, LP
15,139,706 sh · $377.4M
12.29%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Alumis beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.76%, confirming positive operational trends.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report could lead to muted stock movement as investors await more clarity on future guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, the average reaction has been a stock increase of 4.59%, indicating potential volatility.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new drug approvals or pipeline developments.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on EPS.
3Insights into market competition and how Alumis plans to differentiate itself.
4Future guidance on revenue expectations for the upcoming quarters.
5Any commentary on partnerships or collaborations that could enhance growth.

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Company Snapshot

Alumis Inc. is a pharmaceutical company in the health care sector, focused on developing innovative therapies....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenue.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market presence and is crucial for long-term sustainability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ALMS Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 2Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-682.62%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.83%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Alumis reported an EPS of -$0.74, slightly better than the expected -$0.79, but revenue details were not disclosed. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 0.93% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as there are no analyst estimates available. The market is likely anticipating more clarity on revenue and future guidance.

Bull Case

A strong earnings report with better-than-expected EPS could signal improved operational efficiency and investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

If the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, reflecting concerns about its future prospects.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for this quarter?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.

How much has the company invested in R&D this quarter?

R&D spending is crucial for future growth in pharmaceuticals, and insights into this could indicate the company's commitment to innovation.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for cost-cutting measures to improve EPS significantly this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The recent EPS surprise of +6.09% indicates that the company may be managing costs better than anticipated.

Historical patterns show that even with misses, the stock has reacted positively in the past, suggesting resilience.

Key Risk

If R&D spending is significantly higher than expected, it could raise concerns about profitability.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Alumis can turn around its financial performance and maintain its competitive edge in the pharmaceutical industry.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of -$0.50 or better would confirm the bull case and suggest improved operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than -$1.00 would confirm the bear case and raise concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±56.56%

The options market is pricing a significant move in either direction, indicating uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.

Detail

ATM IV

1.2%

30d HV

56.7%

Calls (1K)P/C Ratio: 0.00Puts (6K)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

77.10%

of float

Insider

0.62%

of float

Holders

197

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Ayurmaya Capital Management Company, LP
15,139,706 sh · $377.4M
12.29%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Alumis beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.76%, confirming positive operational trends.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report could lead to muted stock movement as investors await more clarity on future guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, the average reaction has been a stock increase of 4.59%, indicating potential volatility.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new drug approvals or pipeline developments.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on EPS.
3Insights into market competition and how Alumis plans to differentiate itself.
4Future guidance on revenue expectations for the upcoming quarters.
5Any commentary on partnerships or collaborations that could enhance growth.