Equity Profile

ALMS

Alumis Inc.

Health CarePharmaceuticals$3.1B

Aug12Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Alumis Inc. is a pharmaceutical company focused on developing innovative health care solutions....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will closely watch if Alumis can narrow its losses this quarter.

$-0.72

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$1M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ALMS Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Alumis Inc. is a pharmaceutical company focused on developing innovative health care solutions. With a market cap of $3 billion, it operates in a sector that is increasingly important as global health needs evolve.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 2Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-682.62%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.83%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Alumis reported an EPS of $-0.74, which was better than the expected $-0.79, resulting in a slight stock decline the following day. However, revenue figures were not disclosed.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Alumis to report a loss this quarter, but there is hope that the company may show signs of improved performance compared to last quarter.

Bull Case

If Alumis can exceed the EPS estimate and show revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if losses widen or revenue falls short, it could raise concerns about the company's viability and lead to a sharp decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.72

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will closely watch if Alumis can narrow its losses this quarter.

Revenue

$1M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-0.72?

A narrower loss could indicate improved operational efficiency and may positively influence investor sentiment.

What revenue figure will Alumis report this quarter?

Revenue performance is crucial for understanding market demand and the company's growth trajectory.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Alumis to improve its EPS this quarter, given recent operational changes.

Supporting Evidence

Alumis has shown a slight improvement in EPS surprise in the last quarter, indicating potential for further gains.

The significant implied move in options suggests that investors are anticipating a more volatile reaction than the consensus reflects.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in better than $-0.72, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it could either validate the company's recovery strategy or highlight ongoing challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $-0.64 or better, alongside revenue exceeding $1M, would confirm a bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-0.79 or revenue below $1M would solidify a bearish sentiment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±56.56%

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Detail

ATM IV

1.2%

30d HV

56.7%

Calls (1K)P/C Ratio: 0.00Puts (6K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat setup in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.9% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

77.10%

of float

Insider

0.62%

of float

Holders

197

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Ayurmaya Capital Management Company, LP
15,139,706 sh · $377.4M
12.29%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Alumis beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to minimal movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If Alumis misses estimates, history indicates a potential decline in stock price, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or pipeline developments.
2Insights into cost management strategies that could improve profitability.
3Details on market demand and sales performance for key products.
4Management's outlook on future quarters and potential catalysts.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding competitive pressures.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Alumis Inc. is a pharmaceutical company focused on developing innovative health care solutions....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will closely watch if Alumis can narrow its losses this quarter.

$-0.72

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$1M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ALMS Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 2Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-682.62%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.83%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Alumis reported an EPS of $-0.74, which was better than the expected $-0.79, resulting in a slight stock decline the following day. However, revenue figures were not disclosed.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Alumis to report a loss this quarter, but there is hope that the company may show signs of improved performance compared to last quarter.

Bull Case

If Alumis can exceed the EPS estimate and show revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if losses widen or revenue falls short, it could raise concerns about the company's viability and lead to a sharp decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.72

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will closely watch if Alumis can narrow its losses this quarter.

Revenue

$1M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-0.72?

A narrower loss could indicate improved operational efficiency and may positively influence investor sentiment.

What revenue figure will Alumis report this quarter?

Revenue performance is crucial for understanding market demand and the company's growth trajectory.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Alumis to improve its EPS this quarter, given recent operational changes.

Supporting Evidence

Alumis has shown a slight improvement in EPS surprise in the last quarter, indicating potential for further gains.

The significant implied move in options suggests that investors are anticipating a more volatile reaction than the consensus reflects.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in better than $-0.72, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it could either validate the company's recovery strategy or highlight ongoing challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $-0.64 or better, alongside revenue exceeding $1M, would confirm a bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-0.79 or revenue below $1M would solidify a bearish sentiment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±56.56%

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Detail

ATM IV

1.2%

30d HV

56.7%

Calls (1K)P/C Ratio: 0.00Puts (6K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat setup in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

77.10%

of float

Insider

0.62%

of float

Holders

197

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Ayurmaya Capital Management Company, LP
15,139,706 sh · $377.4M
12.29%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Alumis beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to minimal movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If Alumis misses estimates, history indicates a potential decline in stock price, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or pipeline developments.
2Insights into cost management strategies that could improve profitability.
3Details on market demand and sales performance for key products.
4Management's outlook on future quarters and potential catalysts.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding competitive pressures.