Equity Profile

ARCC

Ares Capital Corporation

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$14.5B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) is a leading player in the asset management and custody banking sector, focusing on providing financing solutions to middle-market companies. With a market cap of $14 billion, ARCC plays a crucial role in the financial ecosystem, especially as economic conditions evolve and businesses seek capital for growth.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well the company is managing its investments.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Understanding revenue growth is essential to assess the company's ability to expand its lending portfolio and generate income.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARCC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.59%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.06%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Ares Capital reported an EPS of $0.47, slightly missing the estimate of $0.48, which resulted in a modest stock increase of 1.67% the following day. The company has shown consistent performance, but recent earnings have not met expectations.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed ahead of the earnings report, with investors closely watching for any signs of improvement in profitability and revenue growth. The market is uncertain about how the company will navigate current economic challenges.

Bull Case

If Ares Capital can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved EPS, it may signal effective management and a robust lending environment, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations and shows signs of weakening asset quality, it could lead to a decline in stock price and investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS figure be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the recent trend of missing EPS estimates, this figure will be critical in assessing whether the company is improving its profitability.

What is the current status of Ares Capital's net asset value and how does it reflect on their investment strategy?

NAV is a key indicator of the company's financial health and will provide insights into how well the company is managing its assets in the current economic environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Ares Capital to improve its EPS despite recent misses, as the company has a strong track record of recovering from downturns.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that the market is bracing for surprises.

The recent performance of similar financial firms suggests that Ares Capital could outperform expectations if market conditions improve.

Historical data shows that the stock has often rebounded after earnings misses, indicating resilience.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in above $0.50, it could shift the narrative and lead to a reevaluation of the company's growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on Ares Capital's ability to navigate economic challenges while maintaining or improving profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant EPS increase above $0.50 would confirm the bull case, indicating effective management and strong market conditions.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.45 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in profitability and asset management.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.93%

Historical Avg

±1.81%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, indicating heightened uncertainty or potential volatility.

Options are pricing an 8.93% move, while the stock has averaged only a 1.81% move historically, suggesting a rich setup.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

17.3%

Calls (66K)P/C Ratio: 1.14Puts (48K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ares Capital beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.06%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may react moderately, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

Should the company miss earnings expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of about 0.76%, indicating continued investor concern.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the company's investment strategy and asset management approach.
2Insights into the current economic landscape and its impact on middle-market lending.
3Details on the performance of specific sectors within the portfolio.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and revenue growth.
5Any changes in dividend policy or shareholder returns.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well the company is managing its investments.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Understanding revenue growth is essential to assess the company's ability to expand its lending portfolio and generate income.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARCC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.59%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.06%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Ares Capital can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved EPS, it may signal effective management and a robust lending environment, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations and shows signs of weakening asset quality, it could lead to a decline in stock price and investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS figure be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the recent trend of missing EPS estimates, this figure will be critical in assessing whether the company is improving its profitability.

What is the current status of Ares Capital's net asset value and how does it reflect on their investment strategy?

NAV is a key indicator of the company's financial health and will provide insights into how well the company is managing its assets in the current economic environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Ares Capital to improve its EPS despite recent misses, as the company has a strong track record of recovering from downturns.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that the market is bracing for surprises.

The recent performance of similar financial firms suggests that Ares Capital could outperform expectations if market conditions improve.

Historical data shows that the stock has often rebounded after earnings misses, indicating resilience.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in above $0.50, it could shift the narrative and lead to a reevaluation of the company's growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on Ares Capital's ability to navigate economic challenges while maintaining or improving profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant EPS increase above $0.50 would confirm the bull case, indicating effective management and strong market conditions.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.45 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in profitability and asset management.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.93%

Historical Avg

±1.81%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, indicating heightened uncertainty or potential volatility.

Options are pricing an 8.93% move, while the stock has averaged only a 1.81% move historically, suggesting a rich setup.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

17.3%

Calls (66K)P/C Ratio: 1.14Puts (48K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ares Capital beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.06%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may react moderately, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

Should the company miss earnings expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of about 0.76%, indicating continued investor concern.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the company's investment strategy and asset management approach.
2Insights into the current economic landscape and its impact on middle-market lending.
3Details on the performance of specific sectors within the portfolio.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and revenue growth.
5Any changes in dividend policy or shareholder returns.