Equity Profile

ARCC

Ares Capital Corporation

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$13.5B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) is a leading player in the asset management sector, focusing on providing financing solutions to middle-market companies. With a market cap of $14 billion, it plays a crucial role in the financial ecosystem by helping businesses access capital for growth and operations.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will help gauge its financial health this quarter.

N/A

Net Asset Value (NAV)

NAV reflects the value of the company's investments and is critical for assessing its performance in the asset management space.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARCC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.59%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.06%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Ares Capital reported an EPS of $0.47, slightly missing the estimate of $0.48. Following the announcement, the stock rose by 1.67% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Ares Capital's upcoming earnings are mixed, given its recent performance and the lack of analyst estimates. Investors are keen to see if the company can improve its profitability and maintain its dividend.

Bull Case

If Ares Capital beats EPS expectations and shows strong NAV growth, it could signal robust demand for its financing solutions, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates again or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about its ability to generate consistent returns, potentially leading to a sell-off.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

The EPS figure will be crucial in determining the company's profitability and could significantly impact stock performance.

What is the expected NAV growth for this quarter?

NAV growth is a key indicator of the company's investment performance and will be closely watched by investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Ares Capital's ability to rebound from recent misses, as its diversified portfolio could lead to unexpected growth.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in an 8.93% move, indicating that significant volatility is expected, which may not align with current consensus.

A historical trend shows that Ares Capital has the potential to surprise positively, even after recent misses.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in above $0.50, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift investor perception.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating Ares Capital's ability to maintain profitability amidst fluctuating economic conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest improved profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.45 would confirm the bear case, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.93%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.9% while ARCC has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

17.3%

Calls (66K)P/C Ratio: 1.14Puts (48K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ares Capital beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.06%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may react moderately, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

If the company misses EPS expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 0.76%, indicating investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on NAV growth and investment performance.
2Details about the company's strategy for managing its portfolio.
3Comments on market conditions affecting middle-market financing.
4Insights into dividend sustainability and future payouts.
5Management's outlook on economic trends impacting the asset management sector.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will help gauge its financial health this quarter.

N/A

Net Asset Value (NAV)

NAV reflects the value of the company's investments and is critical for assessing its performance in the asset management space.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARCC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.59%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.06%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Ares Capital reported an EPS of $0.47, slightly missing the estimate of $0.48. Following the announcement, the stock rose by 1.67% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Ares Capital beats EPS expectations and shows strong NAV growth, it could signal robust demand for its financing solutions, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates again or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about its ability to generate consistent returns, potentially leading to a sell-off.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

The EPS figure will be crucial in determining the company's profitability and could significantly impact stock performance.

What is the expected NAV growth for this quarter?

NAV growth is a key indicator of the company's investment performance and will be closely watched by investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Ares Capital's ability to rebound from recent misses, as its diversified portfolio could lead to unexpected growth.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in an 8.93% move, indicating that significant volatility is expected, which may not align with current consensus.

A historical trend shows that Ares Capital has the potential to surprise positively, even after recent misses.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in above $0.50, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift investor perception.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating Ares Capital's ability to maintain profitability amidst fluctuating economic conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest improved profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.45 would confirm the bear case, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.93%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.9% while ARCC has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

17.3%

Calls (66K)P/C Ratio: 1.14Puts (48K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ares Capital beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.06%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may react moderately, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

If the company misses EPS expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 0.76%, indicating investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on NAV growth and investment performance.
2Details about the company's strategy for managing its portfolio.
3Comments on market conditions affecting middle-market financing.
4Insights into dividend sustainability and future payouts.
5Management's outlook on economic trends impacting the asset management sector.