Equity Profile

ARCC

Ares Capital Corporation

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$13.4B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) is a financial services firm that specializes in asset management and private equity investments. With a market cap of $13 billion, it plays a significant role in providing capital to middle-market companies, which is crucial for economic growth and job creation.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

N/A

Net Investment Income

This metric reflects the income generated from investments, which is vital for assessing the company's performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARCC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.59%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.06%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Ares Capital reported an EPS of $0.47, slightly missing the estimate of $0.48. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.67% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Ares Capital's upcoming earnings, given the mixed results in recent quarters. The market is particularly focused on any signs of portfolio growth and income stability.

Bull Case

If Ares Capital can show strong net investment income and portfolio growth, it could signal a robust recovery and attract more investors, pushing the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected earnings or portfolio performance, it may raise concerns about its ability to generate consistent returns, leading to a decline in the stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected net investment income for Q2 2026?

This figure will be crucial in assessing the company's profitability and its ability to sustain dividends.

How has the investment portfolio changed in terms of size and quality?

Changes in the portfolio can indicate the company's growth prospects and risk exposure.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Ares Capital's ability to generate stable income from its investments, especially in a recovering economy.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of managing its portfolio effectively, which could lead to better-than-expected income.

Options pricing suggests a larger potential move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

Recent performance trends show resilience despite mixed earnings results.

Key Risk

If net investment income exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around Ares Capital's ability to maintain profitability and manage its investment portfolio effectively.

Bull Confirmed If

A net investment income growth of over 5% year-over-year would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in net investment income or a significant drop in portfolio value would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.93%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, indicating uncertainty about the results.

Options are pricing ±8.9% while ARCC has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

17.3%

Calls (66K)P/C Ratio: 1.14Puts (48K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ares Capital beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.06%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may remain flat or see a slight decline.

Miss

If the company misses earnings expectations, history suggests a potential drop of around 0.76%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on portfolio diversification and risk management strategies.
2Insights into market conditions affecting investment opportunities.
3Details on any new investments or exits from existing positions.
4Management's outlook on interest rates and their impact on earnings.
5Comments on competitive positioning within the asset management sector.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

N/A

Net Investment Income

This metric reflects the income generated from investments, which is vital for assessing the company's performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARCC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.59%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.06%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Ares Capital reported an EPS of $0.47, slightly missing the estimate of $0.48. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.67% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Ares Capital can show strong net investment income and portfolio growth, it could signal a robust recovery and attract more investors, pushing the stock higher.

Bear Case

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected net investment income for Q2 2026?

This figure will be crucial in assessing the company's profitability and its ability to sustain dividends.

How has the investment portfolio changed in terms of size and quality?

Changes in the portfolio can indicate the company's growth prospects and risk exposure.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Ares Capital's ability to generate stable income from its investments, especially in a recovering economy.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of managing its portfolio effectively, which could lead to better-than-expected income.

Options pricing suggests a larger potential move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

Recent performance trends show resilience despite mixed earnings results.

Key Risk

If net investment income exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around Ares Capital's ability to maintain profitability and manage its investment portfolio effectively.

Bull Confirmed If

A net investment income growth of over 5% year-over-year would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in net investment income or a significant drop in portfolio value would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.93%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, indicating uncertainty about the results.

Options are pricing ±8.9% while ARCC has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

17.3%

Calls (66K)P/C Ratio: 1.14Puts (48K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ares Capital beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.06%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may remain flat or see a slight decline.

Miss

If the company misses earnings expectations, history suggests a potential drop of around 0.76%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on portfolio diversification and risk management strategies.
2Insights into market conditions affecting investment opportunities.
3Details on any new investments or exits from existing positions.
4Management's outlook on interest rates and their impact on earnings.
5Comments on competitive positioning within the asset management sector.