Equity Profile

ARES

Ares Management Corporation

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$27.2B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Ares Management Corporation (ARES) is a leading global alternative investment manager focused on credit, private equity, and real estate. With a market cap of $27 billion, Ares plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in asset management, which is crucial for investors seeking diverse investment opportunities.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

N/A

Assets Under Management (AUM)

AUM reflects the total market value of assets managed by Ares, indicating growth and investor confidence.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARES Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-38.22%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.17%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Ares reported an EPS of $0.46, significantly missing the expected $1.32. This marked a 65.20% surprise to the downside, leading to a modest stock increase of 1.36% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Ares' upcoming earnings are cautious due to recent poor performance. Analysts are closely watching for any signs of recovery in profitability and growth.

Bull Case

If Ares can demonstrate a strong rebound in EPS and revenue, it could signal a recovery in investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Continued misses on EPS and revenue could further erode investor trust, leading to a significant decline in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the recent trend of significant misses, the EPS figure will be crucial in determining investor sentiment and stock movement.

How has AUM changed in the last quarter?

Changes in AUM can indicate investor confidence and the company's ability to attract and retain capital, impacting future revenue.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Ares' ability to rebound from recent earnings misses, particularly if there are signs of improved AUM and profitability.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 17.63% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with the company's actual performance.

The recent insider buying activity suggests some confidence in the company's future prospects, which may not be fully reflected in current market sentiment.

Key Risk

If AUM shows significant growth, it could challenge the current bearish consensus and lead to a reassessment of Ares' potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate centers around whether Ares can recover from its recent earnings misses and regain investor confidence.

Bull Confirmed If

A rebound in EPS to at least $1.00 would confirm the bull case and suggest a recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30 would reinforce the bear case and signal ongoing challenges for Ares.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.63%

Historical Avg

±4.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±17.6% while ARES has averaged ±4.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

34.8%

Calls (35K)P/C Ratio: 2.48Puts (45K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ares beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.46%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the market.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 4.05%, further damaging investor sentiment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

Senate only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-ARJohn BoozmanSen.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on changes in Assets Under Management (AUM).
2Updates on strategic initiatives aimed at improving profitability.
3Insights into market conditions affecting investment flows.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and growth prospects.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding recent performance trends.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

N/A

Assets Under Management (AUM)

AUM reflects the total market value of assets managed by Ares, indicating growth and investor confidence.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARES Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-38.22%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.17%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Ares reported an EPS of $0.46, significantly missing the expected $1.32. This marked a 65.20% surprise to the downside, leading to a modest stock increase of 1.36% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Ares' upcoming earnings are cautious due to recent poor performance. Analysts are closely watching for any signs of recovery in profitability and growth.

Bull Case

If Ares can demonstrate a strong rebound in EPS and revenue, it could signal a recovery in investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Continued misses on EPS and revenue could further erode investor trust, leading to a significant decline in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the recent trend of significant misses, the EPS figure will be crucial in determining investor sentiment and stock movement.

How has AUM changed in the last quarter?

Changes in AUM can indicate investor confidence and the company's ability to attract and retain capital, impacting future revenue.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Ares' ability to rebound from recent earnings misses, particularly if there are signs of improved AUM and profitability.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 17.63% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with the company's actual performance.

The recent insider buying activity suggests some confidence in the company's future prospects, which may not be fully reflected in current market sentiment.

Key Risk

If AUM shows significant growth, it could challenge the current bearish consensus and lead to a reassessment of Ares' potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate centers around whether Ares can recover from its recent earnings misses and regain investor confidence.

Bull Confirmed If

A rebound in EPS to at least $1.00 would confirm the bull case and suggest a recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30 would reinforce the bear case and signal ongoing challenges for Ares.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.63%

Historical Avg

±4.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±17.6% while ARES has averaged ±4.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

34.8%

Calls (35K)P/C Ratio: 2.48Puts (45K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ares beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.46%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the market.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 4.05%, further damaging investor sentiment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

Senate only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-ARJohn BoozmanSen.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on changes in Assets Under Management (AUM).
2Updates on strategic initiatives aimed at improving profitability.
3Insights into market conditions affecting investment flows.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and growth prospects.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding recent performance trends.