Equity Profile

ARR

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$2.1B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. is a real estate investment trust that primarily invests in mortgage-backed securities....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will provide insight into its financial health this quarter.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue figures will help gauge the company's ability to generate income from its investments in mortgage-backed securities.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. is a real estate investment trust that primarily invests in mortgage-backed securities. As a part of the financial sector, it plays a crucial role in the housing market and interest rate environment, which can significantly impact its performance.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-25.80%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.18%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, ARMOUR reported an EPS of $0.76, surpassing expectations by 4.11%. The stock saw a slight increase of 0.63% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for ARMOUR's upcoming earnings are mixed, with no consensus estimates available. Investors are keen to see if the company can maintain or improve its profitability.

Bull Case

If ARMOUR can report strong EPS and revenue figures, it may indicate effective management of its mortgage-backed securities, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of declining profitability, it could lead to a negative reaction from the market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will directly influence investor sentiment and stock performance.

How will ARMOUR manage its dividend payout this quarter?

Changes in the dividend payout can significantly affect investor confidence and the stock's attractiveness as a REIT.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate ARMOUR's ability to capitalize on favorable interest rates, which could lead to stronger-than-expected EPS growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The recent EPS surprise of +4.11% indicates potential for continued strong performance.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that investors are preparing for volatility, which could indicate higher expectations.

The historical trend shows that ARMOUR has occasionally outperformed expectations despite mixed signals.

Key Risk

If ARMOUR's EPS comes in above $0.80, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment in the market.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on ARMOUR's ability to navigate the mortgage-backed securities market and maintain its dividend strategy.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.70 would raise concerns about profitability and management effectiveness.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.51%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in the stock, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.5% while ARR has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

22.6%

Calls (125K)P/C Ratio: 0.57Puts (33K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ARMOUR beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a positive reaction, potentially around a 1.08% increase on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience muted movement.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 0.33% on the first trading day.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the management's strategy for mortgage-backed securities.
2Details on the dividend payout and any changes to it.
3Insights into the impact of interest rates on their portfolio.
4Comments on market conditions and competition in the mortgage REIT space.
5Any guidance on future earnings expectations.

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Company Snapshot

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. is a real estate investment trust that primarily invests in mortgage-backed securities....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will provide insight into its financial health this quarter.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue figures will help gauge the company's ability to generate income from its investments in mortgage-backed securities.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-25.80%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.18%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, ARMOUR reported an EPS of $0.76, surpassing expectations by 4.11%. The stock saw a slight increase of 0.63% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for ARMOUR's upcoming earnings are mixed, with no consensus estimates available. Investors are keen to see if the company can maintain or improve its profitability.

Bull Case

If ARMOUR can report strong EPS and revenue figures, it may indicate effective management of its mortgage-backed securities, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of declining profitability, it could lead to a negative reaction from the market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will directly influence investor sentiment and stock performance.

How will ARMOUR manage its dividend payout this quarter?

Changes in the dividend payout can significantly affect investor confidence and the stock's attractiveness as a REIT.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate ARMOUR's ability to capitalize on favorable interest rates, which could lead to stronger-than-expected EPS growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The recent EPS surprise of +4.11% indicates potential for continued strong performance.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that investors are preparing for volatility, which could indicate higher expectations.

The historical trend shows that ARMOUR has occasionally outperformed expectations despite mixed signals.

Key Risk

If ARMOUR's EPS comes in above $0.80, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment in the market.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on ARMOUR's ability to navigate the mortgage-backed securities market and maintain its dividend strategy.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.70 would raise concerns about profitability and management effectiveness.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.51%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in the stock, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.5% while ARR has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

22.6%

Calls (125K)P/C Ratio: 0.57Puts (33K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ARMOUR beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a positive reaction, potentially around a 1.08% increase on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience muted movement.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 0.33% on the first trading day.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the management's strategy for mortgage-backed securities.
2Details on the dividend payout and any changes to it.
3Insights into the impact of interest rates on their portfolio.
4Comments on market conditions and competition in the mortgage REIT space.
5Any guidance on future earnings expectations.