Equity Profile

ARR

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$2.1B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. is a real estate investment trust that focuses on investing in residential mortgage-backed securities....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will show how well ARMOUR is managing its investments.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest earned on assets and interest paid on liabilities, crucial for assessing profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. is a real estate investment trust that focuses on investing in residential mortgage-backed securities. As a player in the financial sector, particularly in mortgage REITs, it plays a crucial role in the housing market and can be affected by interest rate changes and housing demand.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-25.80%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.18%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, ARMOUR reported an EPS of $0.76, exceeding expectations by 4.11%. The stock saw a modest increase of 0.63% the following day, indicating a positive but cautious market reaction.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about ARMOUR's upcoming earnings, especially after a positive surprise last quarter. However, the lack of analyst estimates adds uncertainty to market expectations.

Bull Case

If ARMOUR can maintain or improve its EPS and net interest margin, it could signal strong management and a favorable interest rate environment, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if earnings fall short or if there are concerns about rising interest rates impacting profitability, the stock could face downward pressure.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of ARMOUR's profitability and will heavily influence investor sentiment and stock performance.

How has the net interest margin changed this quarter?

Changes in net interest margin will provide insights into ARMOUR's ability to manage its investments effectively in the current interest rate environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the impact of rising interest rates on ARMOUR's net interest margin, which could be more favorable than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends in mortgage rates suggest a potential stabilization that could benefit ARMOUR's earnings.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened uncertainty that may not reflect the underlying fundamentals.

Key Risk

If ARMOUR's net interest margin shows significant improvement, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on ARMOUR's ability to manage its investments amid fluctuating interest rates and housing market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.70 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.51%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±12.5% while ARR has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

22.6%

Calls (125K)P/C Ratio: 0.57Puts (33K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ARMOUR beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.08%, confirming strong management and market conditions.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.33%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the company's strategy regarding mortgage-backed securities.
2Insights into how interest rate changes are affecting ARMOUR's portfolio.
3Management's outlook on the housing market and its impact on earnings.
4Details on dividend policy and any changes in payout expectations.
5Comments on operational efficiencies and cost management initiatives.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. is a real estate investment trust that focuses on investing in residential mortgage-backed securities....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will show how well ARMOUR is managing its investments.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest earned on assets and interest paid on liabilities, crucial for assessing profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-25.80%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.18%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, ARMOUR reported an EPS of $0.76, exceeding expectations by 4.11%. The stock saw a modest increase of 0.63% the following day, indicating a positive but cautious market reaction.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If ARMOUR can maintain or improve its EPS and net interest margin, it could signal strong management and a favorable interest rate environment, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if earnings fall short or if there are concerns about rising interest rates impacting profitability, the stock could face downward pressure.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of ARMOUR's profitability and will heavily influence investor sentiment and stock performance.

How has the net interest margin changed this quarter?

Changes in net interest margin will provide insights into ARMOUR's ability to manage its investments effectively in the current interest rate environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the impact of rising interest rates on ARMOUR's net interest margin, which could be more favorable than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends in mortgage rates suggest a potential stabilization that could benefit ARMOUR's earnings.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened uncertainty that may not reflect the underlying fundamentals.

Key Risk

If ARMOUR's net interest margin shows significant improvement, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on ARMOUR's ability to manage its investments amid fluctuating interest rates and housing market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.70 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.51%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±12.5% while ARR has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

22.6%

Calls (125K)P/C Ratio: 0.57Puts (33K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ARMOUR beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.08%, confirming strong management and market conditions.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.33%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the company's strategy regarding mortgage-backed securities.
2Insights into how interest rate changes are affecting ARMOUR's portfolio.
3Management's outlook on the housing market and its impact on earnings.
4Details on dividend policy and any changes in payout expectations.
5Comments on operational efficiencies and cost management initiatives.