Equity Profile

ASO

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryOther Specialty Retail$3.0B

Jun9Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) is a specialty retailer offering a wide range of sporting goods, outdoor gear, and apparel....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.92

Revenue

Total revenue provides insight into overall sales performance and demand for products, which is crucial for assessing growth.

$1.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ASO Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) is a specialty retailer offering a wide range of sporting goods, outdoor gear, and apparel. As a player in the consumer discretionary sector, its performance is closely tied to consumer spending trends and outdoor recreation activities.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.54%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.52%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Academy Sports reported an EPS of $1.97, slightly missing expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 11.70% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect a cautious outlook for ASO this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $0.92 and revenue of $1.4B. Investors will be closely watching for any signs of recovery in sales.

Bull Case

If ASO can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it may indicate a rebound in consumer spending and improved operational efficiency.

Bear Case

Conversely, if ASO misses on EPS and revenue, it could signal ongoing challenges in the retail environment and dampen investor sentiment.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.92

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$1.4B

Total revenue provides insight into overall sales performance and demand for products, which is crucial for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.92?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger-than-expected profitability and boost investor confidence.

What is the revenue outlook given the consensus of $1.4B?

Revenue performance will be crucial in assessing demand trends and overall business health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus is underestimating the potential for ASO to rebound strongly due to seasonal demand and improved inventory management strategies.

Supporting Evidence

Recent consumer spending data suggests a resurgence in outdoor activities, which could benefit ASO's sales.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than ASO's historical average, indicating potential for a surprise.

ASO's recent product launches may drive higher sales than anticipated.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $1.45B, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether ASO can recover from recent earnings misses and improve its financial performance amid changing consumer behaviors.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.95 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $1.45B, would confirm a strong recovery narrative.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.85 or revenue falling short of $1.4B would reinforce concerns about ongoing challenges in the retail sector.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.1%

Historical Avg

±5.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 10.1%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.1% while ASO has averaged ±5.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

40.9%

Calls (14K)P/C Ratio: 0.95Puts (18K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 16 of 28 (57%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 16 of 28 faded and 12 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.4% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ASO beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.5%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 3.5%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the retail environment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on sales trends in outdoor and sporting goods categories.
2Updates on inventory levels and supply chain management.
3Insights into consumer spending patterns and how they may impact future sales.
4Management's outlook on the competitive landscape and pricing strategies.
5Details on any new product launches or marketing initiatives.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Jun8

CPBBMO

The Campbell's Company

PreviewView

Jun8

MTNAMC

Company Snapshot

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) is a specialty retailer offering a wide range of sporting goods, outdoor gear, and apparel....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.92

Revenue

Total revenue provides insight into overall sales performance and demand for products, which is crucial for assessing growth.

$1.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ASO Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.54%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.52%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Academy Sports reported an EPS of $1.97, slightly missing expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 11.70% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect a cautious outlook for ASO this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $0.92 and revenue of $1.4B. Investors will be closely watching for any signs of recovery in sales.

Bull Case

If ASO can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it may indicate a rebound in consumer spending and improved operational efficiency.

Bear Case

Conversely, if ASO misses on EPS and revenue, it could signal ongoing challenges in the retail environment and dampen investor sentiment.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.92

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$1.4B

Total revenue provides insight into overall sales performance and demand for products, which is crucial for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.92?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger-than-expected profitability and boost investor confidence.

What is the revenue outlook given the consensus of $1.4B?

Revenue performance will be crucial in assessing demand trends and overall business health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus is underestimating the potential for ASO to rebound strongly due to seasonal demand and improved inventory management strategies.

Supporting Evidence

Recent consumer spending data suggests a resurgence in outdoor activities, which could benefit ASO's sales.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than ASO's historical average, indicating potential for a surprise.

ASO's recent product launches may drive higher sales than anticipated.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $1.45B, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether ASO can recover from recent earnings misses and improve its financial performance amid changing consumer behaviors.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.95 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $1.45B, would confirm a strong recovery narrative.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.85 or revenue falling short of $1.4B would reinforce concerns about ongoing challenges in the retail sector.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.1%

Historical Avg

±5.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 10.1%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.1% while ASO has averaged ±5.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

40.9%

Calls (14K)P/C Ratio: 0.95Puts (18K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 16 of 28 (57%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ASO beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.5%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 3.5%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the retail environment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on sales trends in outdoor and sporting goods categories.
2Updates on inventory levels and supply chain management.
3Insights into consumer spending patterns and how they may impact future sales.
4Management's outlook on the competitive landscape and pricing strategies.
5Details on any new product launches or marketing initiatives.