Equity Profile

SJM

The J. M. Smucker Company

Consumer StaplesPackaged Foods & Meats$11.8B

Jun9Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

The J. M....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company has managed costs and revenue.

$2.64

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and consumer demand for Smucker's products.

$2.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SJM Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) is a leading player in the consumer staples sector, primarily known for its packaged foods and meats. With a market cap of $12 billion, the company is significant in the grocery aisle, offering products that cater to everyday consumer needs, including jams, jellies, and coffee.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.45%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.21%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Smucker reported an EPS of $2.38, exceeding expectations by 5.08%. The stock responded positively, gaining 8.82% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are generally optimistic about Smucker's upcoming earnings, expecting solid EPS and revenue figures. The company has a history of beating earnings estimates, which could bolster investor confidence.

Bull Case

If Smucker can exceed the consensus EPS of $2.64, it may indicate strong operational efficiency and demand, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses its earnings target or shows signs of declining sales, it could lead to a negative market reaction, especially given the recent mixed performance.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$2.64

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company has managed costs and revenue.

Revenue

$2.3B

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and consumer demand for Smucker's products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.64?

A beat on EPS could signal strong profitability and operational efficiency, which is crucial for investor confidence.

What are the revenue figures relative to the expected $2.3 billion?

Revenue performance will indicate consumer demand and overall sales health, impacting future growth prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Smucker's ability to leverage its brand strength in a competitive market, particularly in coffee and snacks.

Supporting Evidence

Smucker's recent product innovations have not been fully reflected in analyst estimates.

The company's strong historical performance in Q4 suggests potential for a surprise.

Options pricing indicates lower expected volatility than historical averages, suggesting the market may be underestimating potential movement.

Key Risk

If the company reports significantly higher revenue, it could challenge the current consensus estimates.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching Smucker's ability to maintain profitability and sales growth amid changing consumer preferences.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.70 or higher would confirm strong demand and cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.58 would indicate potential issues in profitability or sales.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.6%

Historical Avg

±6.0%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a move of about 4.6% in either direction, suggesting some uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±4.6% while SJM has averaged ±6.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.6%

Calls (23K)P/C Ratio: 0.30Puts (16K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Consumer Staples

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 27 (33%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Staples in the last 2 years. 18 of 27 (67%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Smucker beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 5.98%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 4.09%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies and inflation impacts.
3Insights into consumer trends affecting Smucker's product categories.
4Any guidance on future revenue growth and market conditions.
5Responses to competitive pressures in the packaged foods sector.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

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Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company has managed costs and revenue.

$2.64

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and consumer demand for Smucker's products.

$2.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SJM Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.45%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.21%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Smucker reported an EPS of $2.38, exceeding expectations by 5.08%. The stock responded positively, gaining 8.82% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Smucker can exceed the consensus EPS of $2.64, it may indicate strong operational efficiency and demand, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses its earnings target or shows signs of declining sales, it could lead to a negative market reaction, especially given the recent mixed performance.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$2.64

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company has managed costs and revenue.

Revenue

$2.3B

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and consumer demand for Smucker's products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.64?

A beat on EPS could signal strong profitability and operational efficiency, which is crucial for investor confidence.

What are the revenue figures relative to the expected $2.3 billion?

Revenue performance will indicate consumer demand and overall sales health, impacting future growth prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Smucker's ability to leverage its brand strength in a competitive market, particularly in coffee and snacks.

Supporting Evidence

Smucker's recent product innovations have not been fully reflected in analyst estimates.

The company's strong historical performance in Q4 suggests potential for a surprise.

Options pricing indicates lower expected volatility than historical averages, suggesting the market may be underestimating potential movement.

Key Risk

If the company reports significantly higher revenue, it could challenge the current consensus estimates.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching Smucker's ability to maintain profitability and sales growth amid changing consumer preferences.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.70 or higher would confirm strong demand and cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.58 would indicate potential issues in profitability or sales.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.6%

Historical Avg

±6.0%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a move of about 4.6% in either direction, suggesting some uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±4.6% while SJM has averaged ±6.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.6%

Calls (23K)P/C Ratio: 0.30Puts (16K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Consumer Staples

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 27 (33%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Smucker beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 5.98%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 4.09%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies and inflation impacts.
3Insights into consumer trends affecting Smucker's product categories.
4Any guidance on future revenue growth and market conditions.
5Responses to competitive pressures in the packaged foods sector.