Equity Profile

SJM

The J. M. Smucker Company

Consumer StaplesPackaged Foods & Meats$11.0B

Jun9Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

The J. M....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will help gauge how well Smucker is managing costs and driving sales.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will provide insight into demand for Smucker's products and overall market performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SJM Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) is a leading player in the consumer staples sector, primarily known for its packaged foods and meats. With a diverse portfolio that includes brands like Jif, Smucker's, and Folgers, the company plays a significant role in everyday consumer spending, especially in the grocery sector.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.45%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.21%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Smucker reported an EPS of $2.38, surpassing estimates by 5.08%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 8.82% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on cost management to improve margins.
Commitment to innovation in product offerings.
Plans to enhance distribution channels.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, given the company's recent EPS beat and positive stock reaction.

Bull Case

If Smucker continues to show strong demand and effective cost management, it could lead to robust revenue growth and further stock appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, any signs of declining sales or increased costs could lead to negative market reactions, especially if the company fails to meet expectations.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected EPS for this quarter and how does it compare to last quarter's performance?

Given the recent EPS surprises, this will indicate whether the company can sustain its profitability trend.

What are the management's expectations for revenue growth in key product segments?

Understanding revenue projections will help assess the company's market position and future growth potential.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of Smucker's recent product innovations, which could drive stronger-than-expected sales growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The recent EPS beat suggests that cost management is improving, which could lead to better margins.

Options pricing indicates a lower expected move than historical averages, suggesting the market may be too conservative.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could shift market sentiment significantly.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Smucker can maintain its recent performance amidst rising costs and competition.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.40 or higher would confirm strong profitability and market demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.10 would signal potential issues in sales or cost management.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.6%

Historical Avg

±6.0%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a move of about 4.6%, suggesting that investors are anticipating some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±4.6% while SJM has averaged ±6.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.6%

Calls (23K)P/C Ratio: 0.30Puts (16K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Consumer Staples

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 27 (33%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Staples in the last 2 years. 18 of 27 (67%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Smucker beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.75% on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may see a muted response, possibly flat or slightly down.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 4.09% based on historical patterns.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Management's commentary on cost pressures and pricing strategies.
3Insights into consumer demand trends in the packaged foods sector.
4Any changes in distribution strategies that could affect revenue.
5Forecasts for the upcoming quarters and how they align with current market conditions.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

The J. M....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will help gauge how well Smucker is managing costs and driving sales.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will provide insight into demand for Smucker's products and overall market performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SJM Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.45%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.21%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Smucker reported an EPS of $2.38, surpassing estimates by 5.08%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 8.82% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on cost management to improve margins.
Commitment to innovation in product offerings.
Plans to enhance distribution channels.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, given the company's recent EPS beat and positive stock reaction.

Bull Case

If Smucker continues to show strong demand and effective cost management, it could lead to robust revenue growth and further stock appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, any signs of declining sales or increased costs could lead to negative market reactions, especially if the company fails to meet expectations.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected EPS for this quarter and how does it compare to last quarter's performance?

Given the recent EPS surprises, this will indicate whether the company can sustain its profitability trend.

What are the management's expectations for revenue growth in key product segments?

Understanding revenue projections will help assess the company's market position and future growth potential.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of Smucker's recent product innovations, which could drive stronger-than-expected sales growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The recent EPS beat suggests that cost management is improving, which could lead to better margins.

Options pricing indicates a lower expected move than historical averages, suggesting the market may be too conservative.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could shift market sentiment significantly.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Smucker can maintain its recent performance amidst rising costs and competition.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.40 or higher would confirm strong profitability and market demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.10 would signal potential issues in sales or cost management.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.6%

Historical Avg

±6.0%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a move of about 4.6%, suggesting that investors are anticipating some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±4.6% while SJM has averaged ±6.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.6%

Calls (23K)P/C Ratio: 0.30Puts (16K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Consumer Staples

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 27 (33%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Smucker beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.75% on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may see a muted response, possibly flat or slightly down.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 4.09% based on historical patterns.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Management's commentary on cost pressures and pricing strategies.
3Insights into consumer demand trends in the packaged foods sector.
4Any changes in distribution strategies that could affect revenue.
5Forecasts for the upcoming quarters and how they align with current market conditions.