Equity Profile

AVAV

AeroVironment, Inc.

IndustrialsAerospace & Defense$9.7B

Jun29Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) specializes in unmanned aircraft systems and electric vehicle charging solutions, primarily serving the aerospace and defense sectors....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

$1.47

Revenue

Total revenue will provide insight into the company's sales performance and demand for its products and services.

$559M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AVAV Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) specializes in unmanned aircraft systems and electric vehicle charging solutions, primarily serving the aerospace and defense sectors. With a market cap of $10 billion, the company plays a crucial role in advancing technology for military and commercial applications.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-5.96%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.22%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter (Q3-2026), AeroVironment reported an EPS of $0.64, missing estimates by 5.88%. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 2.52% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect AeroVironment to report an EPS of $1.47 and revenue of $559 million for Q4-2026. The company has struggled with earnings misses in recent quarters, raising concerns among investors.

Bull Case

If AeroVironment can meet or exceed EPS and revenue expectations, it may signal a turnaround in performance and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, another earnings miss could indicate ongoing operational challenges, leading to further declines in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.47

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

Revenue

$559M

Total revenue will provide insight into the company's sales performance and demand for its products and services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will AeroVironment achieve an EPS of at least $1.47?

This number is crucial for restoring investor confidence after several earnings misses.

What factors influenced revenue growth this quarter?

Understanding revenue drivers will help assess the company's market position and future prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the impact of new product launches and government contracts that could drive revenue growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Recent contracts with defense agencies may not be fully reflected in revenue expectations.

The options market suggests traders are anticipating a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential surprises.

The company's innovative technology could lead to increased demand that analysts have not fully accounted for.

Key Risk

If new contracts significantly boost revenue beyond $559 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The company's recent history of earnings misses raises the stakes for this quarter's results.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $1.47 or better would confirm a positive turnaround in earnings performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.28 would reinforce concerns about ongoing operational difficulties.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±20.81%

Historical Avg

±1.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±20.8% while AVAV has averaged ±1.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

78.8%

Calls (1.9M)P/C Ratio: 0.50Puts (480K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AeroVironment beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +0.68%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions as investors assess management's commentary on future growth.

Miss

A miss could result in a decline of approximately -0.77%, further shaking investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on new product launches and their expected impact on revenue.
2Any commentary on government contracts and their contribution to sales.
3Insights into operational improvements and cost management strategies.
4Management's outlook on market demand for unmanned systems.
5Details on competitive positioning within the aerospace and defense sectors.

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Company Snapshot

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) specializes in unmanned aircraft systems and electric vehicle charging solutions, primarily serving the aerospace and defense sectors....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

$1.47

Revenue

Total revenue will provide insight into the company's sales performance and demand for its products and services.

$559M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AVAV Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-5.96%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.22%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter (Q3-2026), AeroVironment reported an EPS of $0.64, missing estimates by 5.88%. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 2.52% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect AeroVironment to report an EPS of $1.47 and revenue of $559 million for Q4-2026. The company has struggled with earnings misses in recent quarters, raising concerns among investors.

Bull Case

If AeroVironment can meet or exceed EPS and revenue expectations, it may signal a turnaround in performance and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, another earnings miss could indicate ongoing operational challenges, leading to further declines in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.47

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

Revenue

$559M

Total revenue will provide insight into the company's sales performance and demand for its products and services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will AeroVironment achieve an EPS of at least $1.47?

This number is crucial for restoring investor confidence after several earnings misses.

What factors influenced revenue growth this quarter?

Understanding revenue drivers will help assess the company's market position and future prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the impact of new product launches and government contracts that could drive revenue growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Recent contracts with defense agencies may not be fully reflected in revenue expectations.

The options market suggests traders are anticipating a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential surprises.

The company's innovative technology could lead to increased demand that analysts have not fully accounted for.

Key Risk

If new contracts significantly boost revenue beyond $559 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The company's recent history of earnings misses raises the stakes for this quarter's results.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $1.47 or better would confirm a positive turnaround in earnings performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.28 would reinforce concerns about ongoing operational difficulties.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±20.81%

Historical Avg

±1.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±20.8% while AVAV has averaged ±1.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

78.8%

Calls (1.9M)P/C Ratio: 0.50Puts (480K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AeroVironment beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +0.68%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions as investors assess management's commentary on future growth.

Miss

A miss could result in a decline of approximately -0.77%, further shaking investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on new product launches and their expected impact on revenue.
2Any commentary on government contracts and their contribution to sales.
3Insights into operational improvements and cost management strategies.
4Management's outlook on market demand for unmanned systems.
5Details on competitive positioning within the aerospace and defense sectors.