Equity Profile

AZN

AstraZeneca PLC

Health CarePharmaceuticals$288.4B

Feb10Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2018Pre-Market9:00 AM EST

Company Snapshot

AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of prescription medicines. Operating in the health care sector, AstraZeneca plays a significant role in addressing various medical needs, particularly in oncology, cardiovascular, and respiratory diseases.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors to gauge financial health.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales, which is crucial for sustaining operations and funding research.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AZN Q1-2018 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+72.85%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.24%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, AstraZeneca reported an EPS of $1.30, significantly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.16% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on expanding its oncology portfolio.
Commitment to advancing research in respiratory diseases.
Plans to enhance global market access for its key products.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about AstraZeneca's upcoming earnings, given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates. However, uncertainty remains regarding revenue growth and market share.

Bull Case

If AstraZeneca can demonstrate strong revenue growth and maintain or increase its market share in key therapeutic areas, it could lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations for revenue growth or shows signs of losing market share, it could result in a negative reaction from investors.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported revenue growth rate for key therapeutic areas?

This figure will be crucial in determining AstraZeneca's competitive position and overall financial health.

How is AstraZeneca addressing market share challenges in oncology?

Market share dynamics can significantly impact future revenue and investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating AstraZeneca's potential for significant revenue growth in oncology, particularly given recent advancements in their pipeline.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a strong history of beating EPS estimates, suggesting operational strength.

Options pricing indicates a potential move that aligns with historical performance, suggesting confidence in upcoming results.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds 10%, it could challenge current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate centers around AstraZeneca's ability to sustain growth in a competitive pharmaceutical landscape.

Bull Confirmed If

Demonstrating revenue growth of at least 10% in key therapeutic areas would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

If revenue growth falls below 5%, it would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.3%

Historical Avg

±4.2%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 4.3%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±4.3% while AZN has averaged ±4.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.7%

Calls (35K)P/C Ratio: 1.14Puts (91K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.9% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AstraZeneca beats expectations, history suggests a stock increase of around 1.01%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report could lead to muted reactions, as investors await further clarity on future guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history indicates a potential decline of about 1.06%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on the performance of key oncology drugs.
2Any changes in guidance for revenue growth in the next quarter.
3Insights into market share trends in respiratory and cardiovascular segments.
4Details on upcoming product launches and their expected impact.
5Management's commentary on competitive pressures and strategies.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors to gauge financial health.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales, which is crucial for sustaining operations and funding research.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AZN Q1-2018 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+72.85%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.24%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, AstraZeneca reported an EPS of $1.30, significantly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.16% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on expanding its oncology portfolio.
Commitment to advancing research in respiratory diseases.
Plans to enhance global market access for its key products.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If AstraZeneca can demonstrate strong revenue growth and maintain or increase its market share in key therapeutic areas, it could lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations for revenue growth or shows signs of losing market share, it could result in a negative reaction from investors.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported revenue growth rate for key therapeutic areas?

This figure will be crucial in determining AstraZeneca's competitive position and overall financial health.

How is AstraZeneca addressing market share challenges in oncology?

Market share dynamics can significantly impact future revenue and investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating AstraZeneca's potential for significant revenue growth in oncology, particularly given recent advancements in their pipeline.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a strong history of beating EPS estimates, suggesting operational strength.

Options pricing indicates a potential move that aligns with historical performance, suggesting confidence in upcoming results.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds 10%, it could challenge current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate centers around AstraZeneca's ability to sustain growth in a competitive pharmaceutical landscape.

Bull Confirmed If

Demonstrating revenue growth of at least 10% in key therapeutic areas would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

If revenue growth falls below 5%, it would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.3%

Historical Avg

±4.2%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 4.3%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±4.3% while AZN has averaged ±4.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.7%

Calls (35K)P/C Ratio: 1.14Puts (91K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AstraZeneca beats expectations, history suggests a stock increase of around 1.01%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report could lead to muted reactions, as investors await further clarity on future guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history indicates a potential decline of about 1.06%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on the performance of key oncology drugs.
2Any changes in guidance for revenue growth in the next quarter.
3Insights into market share trends in respiratory and cardiovascular segments.
4Details on upcoming product launches and their expected impact.
5Management's commentary on competitive pressures and strategies.