Equity Profile

BTU

Peabody Energy Corporation

EnergyCoal & Consumable Fuels$2.9B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) is a leading coal producer in the energy sector, focusing on the extraction and sale of coal for electricity generation and steel production. As the world navigates energy transitions, Peabody's role in the coal industry remains significant, especially amid fluctuating energy demands and environmental considerations.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely watch.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and adapt to market conditions, which is crucial in the volatile energy sector.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BTU Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-594.29%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.16%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Peabody reported an EPS of -$0.27, significantly missing expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 5.73% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management aims to improve operational efficiency.
Focus on cost control measures.
Commitment to enhancing production capabilities.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Peabody's upcoming earnings, given the company's recent struggles with profitability. The market is looking for signs of recovery in production and cost management.

Bull Case

If Peabody can demonstrate improved production volumes and better cost control, it could signal a turnaround, leading to positive investor sentiment.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to report losses and fails to meet production targets, it could further erode investor confidence and lead to a significant stock decline.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported EPS for Q2-2026?

Given the company's recent history of EPS misses, this figure will be critical in assessing whether Peabody is making progress towards profitability.

How has coal production volume changed compared to previous quarters?

Production volume is a key driver of revenue and profitability, and any significant changes will impact market sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Peabody's potential for a rebound in coal demand, especially with rising global energy needs.

Supporting Evidence

Despite recent losses, coal prices have shown signs of recovery, which could benefit Peabody.

Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, suggesting that investors are preparing for a potential surprise.

The company's commitment to cost control may yield better-than-expected results.

Key Risk

If coal production volumes exceed expectations, it could challenge the current bearish outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether Peabody can stabilize its operations and regain investor confidence.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS report indicating a move towards profitability would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Continued losses and lower-than-expected production volumes would solidify the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±26.01%

Historical Avg

±5.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect high volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±26.0% while BTU has averaged ±5.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

56.9%

Calls (3.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.47Puts (472K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Peabody beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +5.91%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further clarity on future guidance.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations again, history suggests an average one-day decline of -3.29%, which could further dampen investor sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on cost control measures and their impact on profitability.
2Any changes in coal production forecasts for the upcoming quarters.
3Management's outlook on coal demand and pricing trends.
4Details on operational efficiency improvements.
5Insights into market conditions affecting coal sales.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely watch.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and adapt to market conditions, which is crucial in the volatile energy sector.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BTU Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-594.29%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.16%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Peabody reported an EPS of -$0.27, significantly missing expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 5.73% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management aims to improve operational efficiency.
Focus on cost control measures.
Commitment to enhancing production capabilities.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Peabody can demonstrate improved production volumes and better cost control, it could signal a turnaround, leading to positive investor sentiment.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to report losses and fails to meet production targets, it could further erode investor confidence and lead to a significant stock decline.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported EPS for Q2-2026?

Given the company's recent history of EPS misses, this figure will be critical in assessing whether Peabody is making progress towards profitability.

How has coal production volume changed compared to previous quarters?

Production volume is a key driver of revenue and profitability, and any significant changes will impact market sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Peabody's potential for a rebound in coal demand, especially with rising global energy needs.

Supporting Evidence

Despite recent losses, coal prices have shown signs of recovery, which could benefit Peabody.

Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, suggesting that investors are preparing for a potential surprise.

The company's commitment to cost control may yield better-than-expected results.

Key Risk

If coal production volumes exceed expectations, it could challenge the current bearish outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether Peabody can stabilize its operations and regain investor confidence.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS report indicating a move towards profitability would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Continued losses and lower-than-expected production volumes would solidify the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±26.01%

Historical Avg

±5.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect high volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±26.0% while BTU has averaged ±5.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

56.9%

Calls (3.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.47Puts (472K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Peabody beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +5.91%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further clarity on future guidance.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations again, history suggests an average one-day decline of -3.29%, which could further dampen investor sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on cost control measures and their impact on profitability.
2Any changes in coal production forecasts for the upcoming quarters.
3Management's outlook on coal demand and pricing trends.
4Details on operational efficiency improvements.
5Insights into market conditions affecting coal sales.