Equity Profile

BXMT

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$3.1B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on originating and acquiring senior loans secured by commercial real estate....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue trends provide insight into the company's ability to generate income from its mortgage investments.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BXMT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on originating and acquiring senior loans secured by commercial real estate. As a player in the financial sector, BXMT is influenced by interest rates and the overall health of the real estate market, making its performance important for investors looking at mortgage-backed securities.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+64.34%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.23%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, BXMT reported an EPS of $0.21, which was significantly below the expected $0.34, resulting in a stock decline of 4.65% the following day. This miss raised concerns about the company's profitability and ability to manage its loan portfolio effectively.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for BXMT's upcoming earnings are mixed, given the recent earnings miss and the lack of guidance. Investors are likely looking for signs of recovery in EPS and revenue growth.

Bull Case

If BXMT can demonstrate strong loan origination and improved EPS, it may regain investor confidence and see a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports another earnings miss or weak revenue growth, it could further erode investor trust and lead to a significant stock decline.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

EPS is crucial for assessing the company's profitability and will heavily influence investor sentiment following the recent earnings miss.

What is the outlook for loan origination volume?

Understanding loan origination trends will help gauge BXMT's future revenue potential and overall market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating BXMT's ability to recover from its recent earnings miss, especially if loan origination volumes show unexpected strength.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are bracing for potential surprises.

BXMT has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% beat rate in the last eight quarters.

Key Risk

If loan origination volume exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the outlook for BXMT's profitability.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter centers around BXMT's ability to rebound from a disappointing previous quarter and its future growth prospects.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.35 or higher would confirm a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.20 would reinforce concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.36%

Historical Avg

±3.78%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a larger-than-usual move for BXMT's earnings announcement, indicating uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing a 13.36% move, while the stock has averaged only a 3.78% move in the past, suggesting heightened volatility expectations.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

24.6%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 0.98Puts (7K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If BXMT beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.78%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 1.53%, further damaging investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan origination volume and its impact on future earnings.
2Management's commentary on the current state of the commercial real estate market.
3Insights into how rising interest rates are affecting the company's loan portfolio.
4Any guidance on expected EPS for the next quarter.
5Discussion on strategies to improve profitability following recent performance.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on originating and acquiring senior loans secured by commercial real estate....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue trends provide insight into the company's ability to generate income from its mortgage investments.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BXMT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+64.34%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.23%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for BXMT's upcoming earnings are mixed, given the recent earnings miss and the lack of guidance. Investors are likely looking for signs of recovery in EPS and revenue growth.

Bull Case

If BXMT can demonstrate strong loan origination and improved EPS, it may regain investor confidence and see a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports another earnings miss or weak revenue growth, it could further erode investor trust and lead to a significant stock decline.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

EPS is crucial for assessing the company's profitability and will heavily influence investor sentiment following the recent earnings miss.

What is the outlook for loan origination volume?

Understanding loan origination trends will help gauge BXMT's future revenue potential and overall market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating BXMT's ability to recover from its recent earnings miss, especially if loan origination volumes show unexpected strength.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are bracing for potential surprises.

BXMT has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% beat rate in the last eight quarters.

Key Risk

If loan origination volume exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the outlook for BXMT's profitability.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter centers around BXMT's ability to rebound from a disappointing previous quarter and its future growth prospects.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.35 or higher would confirm a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.20 would reinforce concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.36%

Historical Avg

±3.78%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a larger-than-usual move for BXMT's earnings announcement, indicating uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing a 13.36% move, while the stock has averaged only a 3.78% move in the past, suggesting heightened volatility expectations.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

24.6%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 0.98Puts (7K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If BXMT beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.78%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 1.53%, further damaging investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan origination volume and its impact on future earnings.
2Management's commentary on the current state of the commercial real estate market.
3Insights into how rising interest rates are affecting the company's loan portfolio.
4Any guidance on expected EPS for the next quarter.
5Discussion on strategies to improve profitability following recent performance.