Equity Profile

BXMT

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$2.4B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily invests in mortgage loans secured by commercial properties....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge how well the company is managing its investments.

0.35

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall performance and ability to generate income from its mortgage investments.

91M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BXMT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily invests in mortgage loans secured by commercial properties. As part of the financial sector, BXMT plays a crucial role in providing capital for real estate transactions, which can be influenced by interest rates and economic conditions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+64.34%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.23%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, BXMT reported an EPS of $0.21, which was significantly below the expected $0.34, resulting in a negative surprise of over 38%. Following this disappointing report, the stock dropped by 4.65% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about BXMT's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a rebound in EPS and revenue. However, given the company's recent performance, there is uncertainty surrounding its ability to meet these expectations.

Bull Case

If BXMT can exceed the consensus EPS of $0.35, it may signal a strong recovery in its mortgage portfolio and investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if BXMT fails to meet or falls short of the consensus estimates, it could raise concerns about the company's ability to manage its investments effectively, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.35

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge how well the company is managing its investments.

Revenue

91M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall performance and ability to generate income from its mortgage investments.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Can BXMT achieve an EPS of $0.35 or higher this quarter?

Meeting or exceeding this EPS target would indicate a recovery in profitability and could boost investor confidence.

What factors contributed to the revenue expectations of $91M?

Understanding the drivers behind revenue projections will help investors assess the company's growth potential and market conditions.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating the potential for BXMT to rebound from its recent earnings miss, as the company has a history of strong recoveries following disappointing quarters.

Supporting Evidence

BXMT has a 75% EPS beat rate historically, suggesting a tendency to outperform expectations.

The options market is pricing a 13.36% move, indicating that investors are anticipating significant volatility, which could favor a positive surprise.

Key Risk

If BXMT's revenue exceeds $91M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and lead to a re-evaluation of its growth prospects.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a significant earnings miss, and market expectations are cautiously optimistic.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.35 or better would confirm the bull case, indicating strong performance and effective management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.25 would confirm the bear case, raising significant concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.36%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±13.4% while BXMT has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

24.6%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 0.98Puts (7K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If BXMT beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, reinforcing positive sentiment around its recovery.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react neutrally, as investors assess management's commentary for future guidance.

Miss

Should BXMT miss expectations, history indicates a potential decline in stock value, reflecting ongoing concerns about its investment strategy.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the performance of the mortgage portfolio and its impact on earnings.
2Management's outlook on interest rates and their effect on future loan origination.
3Details on any new investment strategies or changes in risk management.
4Insights into market conditions affecting commercial real estate and mortgage demand.
5Any commentary on operational efficiencies or cost management initiatives.

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Company Snapshot

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily invests in mortgage loans secured by commercial properties....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge how well the company is managing its investments.

0.35

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall performance and ability to generate income from its mortgage investments.

91M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BXMT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+64.34%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.23%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If BXMT can exceed the consensus EPS of $0.35, it may signal a strong recovery in its mortgage portfolio and investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.35

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge how well the company is managing its investments.

Revenue

91M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall performance and ability to generate income from its mortgage investments.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Can BXMT achieve an EPS of $0.35 or higher this quarter?

Meeting or exceeding this EPS target would indicate a recovery in profitability and could boost investor confidence.

What factors contributed to the revenue expectations of $91M?

Understanding the drivers behind revenue projections will help investors assess the company's growth potential and market conditions.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating the potential for BXMT to rebound from its recent earnings miss, as the company has a history of strong recoveries following disappointing quarters.

Supporting Evidence

BXMT has a 75% EPS beat rate historically, suggesting a tendency to outperform expectations.

The options market is pricing a 13.36% move, indicating that investors are anticipating significant volatility, which could favor a positive surprise.

Key Risk

If BXMT's revenue exceeds $91M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and lead to a re-evaluation of its growth prospects.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a significant earnings miss, and market expectations are cautiously optimistic.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.35 or better would confirm the bull case, indicating strong performance and effective management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.25 would confirm the bear case, raising significant concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.36%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±13.4% while BXMT has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

24.6%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 0.98Puts (7K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If BXMT beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, reinforcing positive sentiment around its recovery.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react neutrally, as investors assess management's commentary for future guidance.

Miss

Should BXMT miss expectations, history indicates a potential decline in stock value, reflecting ongoing concerns about its investment strategy.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the performance of the mortgage portfolio and its impact on earnings.
2Management's outlook on interest rates and their effect on future loan origination.
3Details on any new investment strategies or changes in risk management.
4Insights into market conditions affecting commercial real estate and mortgage demand.
5Any commentary on operational efficiencies or cost management initiatives.