Equity Profile

BXMT

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$2.8B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) operates in the financial sector, specifically as a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT)....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance, which investors closely monitor.

$0.34

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to expand and generate returns for shareholders.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BXMT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) operates in the financial sector, specifically as a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT). The company primarily provides financing for commercial real estate, which is crucial in a market where property values and interest rates can fluctuate significantly.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+64.34%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.23%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, BXMT reported an EPS of $0.21, falling short of the expected $0.34, resulting in a stock decline of 4.65% the following day. The company has shown mixed performance in previous quarters, with notable surprises in both directions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management committed to maintaining a strong pipeline of new loans.
They indicated a focus on diversifying their portfolio to mitigate risks.
Plans to enhance operational efficiency were discussed.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are cautious as BXMT has recently missed earnings estimates. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in profitability and revenue growth.

Bull Case

If BXMT can exceed EPS expectations and show strong loan origination, it could signal a rebound in demand for commercial real estate financing, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings and fails to provide a clear growth strategy, it may face further stock declines amid a challenging market environment.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.34

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue Growth

N/A

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to expand and generate returns for shareholders.

Loan Origination Volume

N/A

This metric reflects the demand for financing and can indicate the health of the commercial real estate market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

Given the recent earnings miss, the EPS figure will be crucial in assessing whether the company is on a recovery path.

What is the outlook for loan origination volume?

This will provide insight into the demand for financing and the company's growth potential in the current market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for BXMT to rebound, given its strong historical performance in previous quarters despite recent misses.

Supporting Evidence

BXMT has a 75% EPS beat rate historically, suggesting it often exceeds expectations.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

Management's focus on diversifying the portfolio could mitigate risks and enhance growth.

Key Risk

If loan origination volume exceeds expectations, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether BXMT can regain its footing after recent earnings misses, making these thresholds critical.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.34 or higher would confirm a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.21 would reinforce concerns about ongoing challenges in the commercial real estate market.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.36%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±13.4% while BXMT has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

24.6%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 0.98Puts (7K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If BXMT beats expectations, history suggests a potential average move of +1.13%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may remain flat as investors weigh future guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history indicating an average drop of -1.53% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the loan origination pipeline and its expected impact on revenue.
2Management's commentary on market conditions and competitive landscape.
3Details on operational efficiency improvements and their expected outcomes.
4Insights into portfolio diversification strategies and risk management.
5Guidance on future EPS expectations and revenue growth.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) operates in the financial sector, specifically as a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT)....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance, which investors closely monitor.

$0.34

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to expand and generate returns for shareholders.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BXMT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+64.34%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.23%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Management committed to maintaining a strong pipeline of new loans.
They indicated a focus on diversifying their portfolio to mitigate risks.
Plans to enhance operational efficiency were discussed.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are cautious as BXMT has recently missed earnings estimates. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in profitability and revenue growth.

Bull Case

If BXMT can exceed EPS expectations and show strong loan origination, it could signal a rebound in demand for commercial real estate financing, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings and fails to provide a clear growth strategy, it may face further stock declines amid a challenging market environment.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.34

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue Growth

N/A

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to expand and generate returns for shareholders.

Loan Origination Volume

N/A

This metric reflects the demand for financing and can indicate the health of the commercial real estate market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

Given the recent earnings miss, the EPS figure will be crucial in assessing whether the company is on a recovery path.

What is the outlook for loan origination volume?

This will provide insight into the demand for financing and the company's growth potential in the current market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for BXMT to rebound, given its strong historical performance in previous quarters despite recent misses.

Supporting Evidence

BXMT has a 75% EPS beat rate historically, suggesting it often exceeds expectations.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

Management's focus on diversifying the portfolio could mitigate risks and enhance growth.

Key Risk

If loan origination volume exceeds expectations, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether BXMT can regain its footing after recent earnings misses, making these thresholds critical.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.34 or higher would confirm a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.21 would reinforce concerns about ongoing challenges in the commercial real estate market.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.36%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±13.4% while BXMT has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

24.6%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 0.98Puts (7K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If BXMT beats expectations, history suggests a potential average move of +1.13%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may remain flat as investors weigh future guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history indicating an average drop of -1.53% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the loan origination pipeline and its expected impact on revenue.
2Management's commentary on market conditions and competitive landscape.
3Details on operational efficiency improvements and their expected outcomes.
4Insights into portfolio diversification strategies and risk management.
5Guidance on future EPS expectations and revenue growth.