Equity Profile

CARR

Carrier Global Corporation

IndustrialsBuilding Products$57.0B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) is a leading provider of building products and solutions, primarily focused on heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. As a major player in the industrial sector, the company's performance is closely tied to trends in construction, energy efficiency, and overall economic conditions.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge the company's financial health this quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects demand for Carrier's products and services, which is crucial for assessing market performance.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CARR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+5.81%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.29%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Carrier reported an EPS of $0.57, exceeding expectations by nearly 13%. The stock reacted positively, gaining nearly 9% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about Carrier's upcoming earnings, especially given the recent EPS beat. However, there are concerns about potential revenue growth amid economic fluctuations.

Bull Case

If Carrier can continue its trend of beating EPS estimates and show strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand and operational efficiency, leading to further stock appreciation.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of slowing growth, it could lead to a significant sell-off, especially given the high implied volatility in the options market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected revenue growth rate for the upcoming quarter?

Revenue growth will be critical in assessing demand for Carrier's products, especially in the current economic climate.

How is Carrier addressing supply chain challenges?

Supply chain issues can significantly impact production and delivery, affecting overall performance and investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Carrier's ability to navigate supply chain challenges effectively, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

Carrier has a history of beating EPS estimates, suggesting operational strength.

The implied volatility in options indicates that traders expect significant movement, which could be due to positive developments not yet reflected in consensus estimates.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds 10%, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the potential for continued growth against the backdrop of economic uncertainty and supply chain challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue growth of 10% or more year-over-year would confirm strong demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

A revenue decline or stagnation would indicate potential issues in demand or supply chain disruptions.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.90%

Historical Avg

±5.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±9.9% while CARR has averaged ±5.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

41.7%

Calls (27K)P/C Ratio: 0.71Puts (20K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 18 of 24 (75%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.8%, with a raw directional average of +1.9% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carrier beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.2% on the first trading day post-earnings.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may see a muted reaction, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

Should the company miss earnings expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 4.76% on the following trading day.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-WARick LarsenRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on supply chain management and its impact on production timelines.
2Details on revenue growth by product segment, especially HVAC systems.
3Management's outlook on market demand in light of economic conditions.
4Insights into cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures and how Carrier plans to address them.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge the company's financial health this quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects demand for Carrier's products and services, which is crucial for assessing market performance.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CARR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+5.81%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.29%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Carrier reported an EPS of $0.57, exceeding expectations by nearly 13%. The stock reacted positively, gaining nearly 9% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Carrier can continue its trend of beating EPS estimates and show strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand and operational efficiency, leading to further stock appreciation.

Bear Case

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected revenue growth rate for the upcoming quarter?

Revenue growth will be critical in assessing demand for Carrier's products, especially in the current economic climate.

How is Carrier addressing supply chain challenges?

Supply chain issues can significantly impact production and delivery, affecting overall performance and investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Carrier's ability to navigate supply chain challenges effectively, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

Carrier has a history of beating EPS estimates, suggesting operational strength.

The implied volatility in options indicates that traders expect significant movement, which could be due to positive developments not yet reflected in consensus estimates.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds 10%, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the potential for continued growth against the backdrop of economic uncertainty and supply chain challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue growth of 10% or more year-over-year would confirm strong demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

A revenue decline or stagnation would indicate potential issues in demand or supply chain disruptions.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.90%

Historical Avg

±5.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±9.9% while CARR has averaged ±5.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

41.7%

Calls (27K)P/C Ratio: 0.71Puts (20K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carrier beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.2% on the first trading day post-earnings.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may see a muted reaction, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

Should the company miss earnings expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 4.76% on the following trading day.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-WARick LarsenRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on supply chain management and its impact on production timelines.
2Details on revenue growth by product segment, especially HVAC systems.
3Management's outlook on market demand in light of economic conditions.
4Insights into cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures and how Carrier plans to address them.