Equity Profile

CARR

Carrier Global Corporation

IndustrialsBuilding Products$52.2B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) is a leading provider of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) solutions. Operating in the industrials sector, the company plays a crucial role in building products, focusing on energy-efficient systems that are increasingly important in today's sustainability-driven market.

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is a key indicator of demand for Carrier's HVAC products and services, reflecting overall market health.

N/A

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Carrier is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CARR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+5.81%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.29%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Carrier reported an EPS of $0.57, exceeding expectations by 12.87%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 8.79% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding energy-efficient product lines.
Commitment to improving operational efficiencies.
Plans to enhance customer service and support.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect Carrier to continue its trend of beating earnings estimates, given its strong performance in recent quarters.

Bull Case

If Carrier can demonstrate robust revenue growth and maintain or improve its margins, it could signal strong demand and operational efficiency, driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet earnings expectations or shows signs of declining demand, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected revenue growth rate for the upcoming quarter?

Revenue growth will be a key indicator of market demand and operational performance, influencing investor sentiment.

How is Carrier addressing supply chain challenges?

Supply chain issues could impact production and delivery, affecting overall profitability and customer satisfaction.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Carrier's ability to capitalize on the growing demand for energy-efficient HVAC solutions, which could drive stronger revenue growth than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends indicate a shift towards sustainability in building products, which Carrier is well-positioned to exploit.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that investors expect significant news.

Key Risk

If Carrier's revenue growth exceeds 10%, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter centers around Carrier's ability to sustain growth amidst potential market headwinds.

Bull Confirmed If

Demonstrating revenue growth of over 10% year-over-year would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in operating margin below 15% would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.90%

Historical Avg

±5.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating uncertainty or anticipation surrounding the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.9% while CARR has averaged ±5.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

41.7%

Calls (27K)P/C Ratio: 0.71Puts (20K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 18 of 24 (75%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carrier beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.20%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to minimal movement as investors digest the details.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 4.76%, reflecting disappointment in performance and potential concerns about future growth.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-WARick LarsenRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on revenue growth and specific segments driving performance.
2Updates on supply chain management and its impact on operations.
3Any new product launches or innovations in energy efficiency.
4Insights into customer demand trends in the HVAC market.
5Management's outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is a key indicator of demand for Carrier's HVAC products and services, reflecting overall market health.

N/A

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Carrier is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CARR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+5.81%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.29%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Carrier reported an EPS of $0.57, exceeding expectations by 12.87%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 8.79% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding energy-efficient product lines.
Commitment to improving operational efficiencies.
Plans to enhance customer service and support.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect Carrier to continue its trend of beating earnings estimates, given its strong performance in recent quarters.

Bull Case

If Carrier can demonstrate robust revenue growth and maintain or improve its margins, it could signal strong demand and operational efficiency, driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet earnings expectations or shows signs of declining demand, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected revenue growth rate for the upcoming quarter?

Revenue growth will be a key indicator of market demand and operational performance, influencing investor sentiment.

How is Carrier addressing supply chain challenges?

Supply chain issues could impact production and delivery, affecting overall profitability and customer satisfaction.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Carrier's ability to capitalize on the growing demand for energy-efficient HVAC solutions, which could drive stronger revenue growth than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends indicate a shift towards sustainability in building products, which Carrier is well-positioned to exploit.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that investors expect significant news.

Key Risk

If Carrier's revenue growth exceeds 10%, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter centers around Carrier's ability to sustain growth amidst potential market headwinds.

Bull Confirmed If

Demonstrating revenue growth of over 10% year-over-year would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in operating margin below 15% would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.90%

Historical Avg

±5.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating uncertainty or anticipation surrounding the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.9% while CARR has averaged ±5.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

41.7%

Calls (27K)P/C Ratio: 0.71Puts (20K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carrier beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.20%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to minimal movement as investors digest the details.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 4.76%, reflecting disappointment in performance and potential concerns about future growth.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-WARick LarsenRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on revenue growth and specific segments driving performance.
2Updates on supply chain management and its impact on operations.
3Any new product launches or innovations in energy efficiency.
4Insights into customer demand trends in the HVAC market.
5Management's outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year.