Equity Profile

COP

ConocoPhillips

EnergyOil & Gas Exploration & Production$137.7B

Apr30Thu

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market7:00 AM EDT

ConocoPhillips Beats on EPS, Stock Down 1.93%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$1.78	$1.66	+3.07%
Revenue	N/A	$16.1B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

ConocoPhillips Beats on EPS, Stock Down 1.93%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$1.78	$1.66	+3.07%
Revenue	N/A	$16.1B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

ConocoPhillips reported an EPS that exceeded expectations, indicating better-than-anticipated profitability. However, the stock fell by nearly 2% in response, which could reflect investor concerns about revenue performance or broader market conditions. Without additional context from management commentary, the reasons for the stock's decline remain unclear.

Company Snapshot

ConocoPhillips (COP) is a major player in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas exploration and production. With a market cap of $154 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the global energy supply chain, especially as energy demand continues to evolve amid economic changes and environmental concerns.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

$1.66

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its products.

$16.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.30%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, ConocoPhillips reported an EPS of $1.02, falling short of expectations. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 2.43% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about ConocoPhillips' upcoming earnings, with expectations for a modest EPS increase compared to the previous quarter. However, the company has faced challenges in meeting estimates recently.

Bull Case

If ConocoPhillips can exceed the consensus EPS of $1.66, it may signal a strong rebound in profitability, potentially boosting investor confidence and stock price.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could raise concerns about its operational efficiency and market conditions, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$1.66

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

Revenue

$16.1B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will ConocoPhillips achieve an EPS of $1.66 or higher this quarter?

A strong EPS could indicate improved operational performance and market conditions, which are crucial for investor confidence.

What factors contributed to the revenue expectations of $16.1 billion?

Understanding revenue drivers will help assess the company's market position and future growth potential.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the impact of recent operational improvements and cost management initiatives, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

The historical EPS beat rate of 63% suggests that the company has a track record of exceeding expectations.

Options pricing indicates a larger potential move than historical averages, reflecting investor uncertainty that may not fully account for operational strengths.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $16.1 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift investor expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a trend of mixed results, and investors are keen to see if the company can stabilize its earnings.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.75 or higher would confirm a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.33 would indicate ongoing challenges in meeting market expectations.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.6%

Historical Avg

±2.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a move of about 3.6% following the earnings report, indicating some uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing a larger move than the historical average, suggesting heightened expectations for volatility.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

29.3%

Calls (641K)P/C Ratio: 0.80Puts (301K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ConocoPhillips beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.67%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the market.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.83%, reinforcing concerns about the company's ability to navigate current market conditions.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production levels and operational efficiencies.
2Insights into market demand for oil and gas in the upcoming quarter.
3Management's commentary on cost management strategies.
4Details on any new projects or investments that could impact future earnings.
5Guidance on how external factors, like geopolitical events, may affect operations.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Apr27

VZReported

Verizon Communications Inc.

Congress activity

RecapView

Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

$1.66

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its products.

$16.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.30%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, ConocoPhillips reported an EPS of $1.02, falling short of expectations. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 2.43% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If ConocoPhillips can exceed the consensus EPS of $1.66, it may signal a strong rebound in profitability, potentially boosting investor confidence and stock price.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could raise concerns about its operational efficiency and market conditions, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$1.66

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

Revenue

$16.1B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will ConocoPhillips achieve an EPS of $1.66 or higher this quarter?

A strong EPS could indicate improved operational performance and market conditions, which are crucial for investor confidence.

What factors contributed to the revenue expectations of $16.1 billion?

Understanding revenue drivers will help assess the company's market position and future growth potential.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the impact of recent operational improvements and cost management initiatives, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

The historical EPS beat rate of 63% suggests that the company has a track record of exceeding expectations.

Options pricing indicates a larger potential move than historical averages, reflecting investor uncertainty that may not fully account for operational strengths.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $16.1 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift investor expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a trend of mixed results, and investors are keen to see if the company can stabilize its earnings.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.75 or higher would confirm a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.33 would indicate ongoing challenges in meeting market expectations.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.6%

Historical Avg

±2.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a move of about 3.6% following the earnings report, indicating some uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing a larger move than the historical average, suggesting heightened expectations for volatility.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

29.3%

Calls (641K)P/C Ratio: 0.80Puts (301K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ConocoPhillips beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.67%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the market.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.83%, reinforcing concerns about the company's ability to navigate current market conditions.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production levels and operational efficiencies.
2Insights into market demand for oil and gas in the upcoming quarter.
3Management's commentary on cost management strategies.
4Details on any new projects or investments that could impact future earnings.
5Guidance on how external factors, like geopolitical events, may affect operations.