Equity Profile

CRS

Carpenter Technology Corporation

IndustrialsAerospace & Defense$24.0B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) operates in the industrials sector, focusing on aerospace and defense materials. The company is significant for its production of specialty alloys and advanced materials, which are crucial for high-performance applications in various industries.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will show how well it has managed costs and revenue.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market share and meet customer demand, especially in aerospace and defense.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CRS Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+10.14%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.71%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Carpenter Technology reported an EPS of $2.77, exceeding estimates by 6.83%. However, the stock fell 5.05% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Carpenter Technology's upcoming earnings, given its history of beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of revenue guidance adds uncertainty.

Bull Case

If the company continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational efficiency and demand in its markets, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to provide clear guidance or if the earnings miss expectations, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, especially given the recent volatility.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q4-2026?

Given the company's strong history of EPS surprises, this figure will be crucial for investor confidence and stock performance.

Will there be any guidance on revenue growth for the upcoming quarters?

Clear revenue guidance will help investors assess the company's growth trajectory and market demand, impacting stock sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Carpenter's ability to maintain strong margins despite potential cost pressures, given its historical performance.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational management.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, which may not align with the cautious sentiment reflected in analyst forecasts.

Key Risk

If EPS exceeds $2.90, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching EPS and revenue guidance to gauge Carpenter Technology's growth potential in a competitive landscape.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.90 or higher would confirm a strong operational performance and bullish sentiment.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.50 would raise concerns about profitability and market demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.57%

Historical Avg

±8.8%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect notable volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±9.6% while CRS has averaged ±8.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

45.1%

Calls (17K)P/C Ratio: 1.01Puts (7K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 5 of 24 (21%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 19 of 24 (79%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.6%, with a raw directional average of +1.6% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carpenter beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.71%, confirming the company's strong performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but lack strong guidance, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess their outlook.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop of around 6.40%.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·0 sells

Members

Senate only

Est. Notional

$30,002.00–$100,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OKMarkwayne MullinSen.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new contracts or partnerships in the aerospace sector.
2Insights into raw material costs and how they may impact margins.
3Management's outlook on demand trends in the defense industry.
4Details on any operational efficiencies or cost-saving measures implemented.
5Any commentary on the competitive landscape and market positioning.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will show how well it has managed costs and revenue.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market share and meet customer demand, especially in aerospace and defense.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CRS Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+10.14%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.71%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Carpenter Technology reported an EPS of $2.77, exceeding estimates by 6.83%. However, the stock fell 5.05% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Carpenter Technology's upcoming earnings, given its history of beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of revenue guidance adds uncertainty.

Bull Case

If the company continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational efficiency and demand in its markets, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to provide clear guidance or if the earnings miss expectations, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, especially given the recent volatility.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q4-2026?

Given the company's strong history of EPS surprises, this figure will be crucial for investor confidence and stock performance.

Will there be any guidance on revenue growth for the upcoming quarters?

Clear revenue guidance will help investors assess the company's growth trajectory and market demand, impacting stock sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Carpenter's ability to maintain strong margins despite potential cost pressures, given its historical performance.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational management.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, which may not align with the cautious sentiment reflected in analyst forecasts.

Key Risk

If EPS exceeds $2.90, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching EPS and revenue guidance to gauge Carpenter Technology's growth potential in a competitive landscape.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.90 or higher would confirm a strong operational performance and bullish sentiment.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.50 would raise concerns about profitability and market demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.57%

Historical Avg

±8.8%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect notable volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±9.6% while CRS has averaged ±8.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

45.1%

Calls (17K)P/C Ratio: 1.01Puts (7K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 5 of 24 (21%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carpenter beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.71%, confirming the company's strong performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but lack strong guidance, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess their outlook.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop of around 6.40%.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·0 sells

Members

Senate only

Est. Notional

$30,002.00–$100,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OKMarkwayne MullinSen.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new contracts or partnerships in the aerospace sector.
2Insights into raw material costs and how they may impact margins.
3Management's outlook on demand trends in the defense industry.
4Details on any operational efficiencies or cost-saving measures implemented.
5Any commentary on the competitive landscape and market positioning.