Equity Profile

CRS

Carpenter Technology Corporation

IndustrialsAerospace & Defense$28.2B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) operates in the industrials sector, focusing on aerospace and defense materials. The company is significant for its production of high-performance alloys and specialty materials, which are essential in various industries, including aerospace, automotive, and medical.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and expand its market share, crucial for long-term success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CRS Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+10.14%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.71%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3 2026, Carpenter Technology reported an EPS of $2.77, exceeding expectations by 6.83%. However, the stock declined by 5.05% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on increasing production capacity to meet demand.
Commitment to improving operational efficiency.
Plans to expand into new markets and applications.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Carpenter Technology's upcoming earnings are cautious, given the stock's recent volatility despite consistent EPS beats.

Bull Case

If the company continues its trend of beating EPS estimates and provides positive guidance, it could lead to a strong rally in the stock price.

Bear Case

Conversely, if there are signs of weakening demand or operational challenges, the stock could face significant downward pressure.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q4-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given Carpenter's history of beating EPS estimates, the market will closely watch this figure to gauge ongoing profitability.

What is the current order backlog and how does it reflect future revenue expectations?

A strong order backlog can indicate robust demand, which is crucial for Carpenter's growth outlook.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Carpenter's ability to maintain strong EPS growth due to its expanding market presence and operational efficiencies.

Supporting Evidence

Carpenter has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger-than-expected performance.

The company has a history of recovering from stock price declines following earnings beats, suggesting resilience.

Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, reflecting investor uncertainty that may not align with the company's fundamentals.

Key Risk

If order backlog growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of Carpenter's future revenue potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating Carpenter's ability to sustain its earnings momentum amid potential economic headwinds.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.90 or higher would confirm the bullish case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.50 would confirm the bearish case, suggesting potential issues with demand or cost management.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.57%

Historical Avg

±8.8%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.6% while CRS has averaged ±8.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

45.1%

Calls (17K)P/C Ratio: 1.01Puts (7K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 18 of 24 (75%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carpenter beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +0.71% on the following day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may experience muted movement.

Miss

If the company misses earnings expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around -5.05% on the following day.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

Senate only

Est. Notional

$15,001.00–$50,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OKMarkwayne MullinSen.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production capacity and efficiency improvements.
2Details on order backlog and demand trends in key markets.
3Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
4Management's outlook on economic conditions affecting the aerospace and defense sectors.
5Any commentary on new product developments or market expansions.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and expand its market share, crucial for long-term success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

CRS Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+10.14%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.71%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on increasing production capacity to meet demand.
Commitment to improving operational efficiency.
Plans to expand into new markets and applications.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Carpenter Technology's upcoming earnings are cautious, given the stock's recent volatility despite consistent EPS beats.

Bull Case

If the company continues its trend of beating EPS estimates and provides positive guidance, it could lead to a strong rally in the stock price.

Bear Case

Conversely, if there are signs of weakening demand or operational challenges, the stock could face significant downward pressure.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q4-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given Carpenter's history of beating EPS estimates, the market will closely watch this figure to gauge ongoing profitability.

What is the current order backlog and how does it reflect future revenue expectations?

A strong order backlog can indicate robust demand, which is crucial for Carpenter's growth outlook.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Carpenter's ability to maintain strong EPS growth due to its expanding market presence and operational efficiencies.

Supporting Evidence

Carpenter has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger-than-expected performance.

The company has a history of recovering from stock price declines following earnings beats, suggesting resilience.

Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, reflecting investor uncertainty that may not align with the company's fundamentals.

Key Risk

If order backlog growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of Carpenter's future revenue potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating Carpenter's ability to sustain its earnings momentum amid potential economic headwinds.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.90 or higher would confirm the bullish case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.50 would confirm the bearish case, suggesting potential issues with demand or cost management.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.57%

Historical Avg

±8.8%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.6% while CRS has averaged ±8.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

45.1%

Calls (17K)P/C Ratio: 1.01Puts (7K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Carpenter beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +0.71% on the following day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may experience muted movement.

Miss

If the company misses earnings expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around -5.05% on the following day.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

Senate only

Est. Notional

$15,001.00–$50,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OKMarkwayne MullinSen.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production capacity and efficiency improvements.
2Details on order backlog and demand trends in key markets.
3Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
4Management's outlook on economic conditions affecting the aerospace and defense sectors.
5Any commentary on new product developments or market expansions.