Equity Profile

DHI

D.R. Horton, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryHomebuilding$41.7B

Jul21Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ3-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

D.R. Horton, Inc....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well D.R. Horton is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects demand for new homes and the company's ability to capitalize on market conditions.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

DHI Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

D.R. Horton, Inc. is a leading homebuilder in the U.S., focusing on constructing single-family homes. As a key player in the consumer discretionary sector, its performance is closely tied to housing market trends and consumer spending patterns.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.98%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2026, D.R. Horton reported an EPS of $2.24, exceeding expectations by nearly 4%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 5.78% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, given the recent positive EPS surprises. However, uncertainty remains due to fluctuating housing market conditions.

Bull Case

If D.R. Horton continues to show strong demand for homes and manages costs effectively, it could report better-than-expected earnings and revenue growth.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company faces challenges such as rising interest rates or supply chain issues, it may report disappointing results, leading to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported EPS and how does it compare to previous quarters?

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and a significant change could influence investor sentiment and stock price.

What insights can management provide about home sales volume and market demand?

Understanding sales volume will help gauge the company's performance in the current housing market and future growth prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the resilience of the housing market, which could lead to stronger-than-expected sales and profitability for D.R. Horton this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

D.R. Horton has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational performance.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting traders expect significant volatility, which could be due to positive sentiment.

Key Risk

If home sales volume exceeds expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision in earnings forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on the balance between demand for new homes and the company's ability to manage costs effectively.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.30 or higher would confirm strong profitability and market demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.00 would signal potential issues with sales or rising costs.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.15%

Historical Avg

±6.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.2% while DHI has averaged ±6.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

39.4%

Calls (182K)P/C Ratio: 1.66Puts (45K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If D.R. Horton beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 6.24%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 2.43%, reflecting disappointment in market performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on the outlook for home sales in the upcoming quarters.
2Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Updates on supply chain challenges and how they are being addressed.
4Details on new developments or projects that may drive future growth.
5Management's perspective on interest rate impacts on homebuyer demand.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

D.R. Horton, Inc....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well D.R. Horton is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects demand for new homes and the company's ability to capitalize on market conditions.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

DHI Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.98%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2026, D.R. Horton reported an EPS of $2.24, exceeding expectations by nearly 4%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 5.78% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, given the recent positive EPS surprises. However, uncertainty remains due to fluctuating housing market conditions.

Bull Case

If D.R. Horton continues to show strong demand for homes and manages costs effectively, it could report better-than-expected earnings and revenue growth.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company faces challenges such as rising interest rates or supply chain issues, it may report disappointing results, leading to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported EPS and how does it compare to previous quarters?

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and a significant change could influence investor sentiment and stock price.

What insights can management provide about home sales volume and market demand?

Understanding sales volume will help gauge the company's performance in the current housing market and future growth prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the resilience of the housing market, which could lead to stronger-than-expected sales and profitability for D.R. Horton this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

D.R. Horton has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational performance.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting traders expect significant volatility, which could be due to positive sentiment.

Key Risk

If home sales volume exceeds expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision in earnings forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on the balance between demand for new homes and the company's ability to manage costs effectively.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.30 or higher would confirm strong profitability and market demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.00 would signal potential issues with sales or rising costs.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.15%

Historical Avg

±6.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.2% while DHI has averaged ±6.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

39.4%

Calls (182K)P/C Ratio: 1.66Puts (45K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If D.R. Horton beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 6.24%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 2.43%, reflecting disappointment in market performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on the outlook for home sales in the upcoming quarters.
2Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Updates on supply chain challenges and how they are being addressed.
4Details on new developments or projects that may drive future growth.
5Management's perspective on interest rate impacts on homebuyer demand.