Equity Profile

DINO

HF Sinclair Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$14.7B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. As a significant player in this industry, its performance can be influenced by fluctuating oil prices, regulatory changes, and shifts in consumer energy demand.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales, an important factor for assessing its operational performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

DINO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+366.14%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.79%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, HF Sinclair reported an impressive EPS of $3.56, significantly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.92% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for HF Sinclair's upcoming earnings are uncertain due to the lack of analyst estimates. Investors will be keen to see if the company can maintain its strong performance from the last quarter.

Bull Case

If the company continues to outperform expectations, particularly in refining margins and overall profitability, it could see significant stock appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet previous performance levels or if refining margins decline, it could lead to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

Given the previous quarter's significant EPS surprise, investors will be closely watching this figure to gauge ongoing profitability.

How have refining margins changed this quarter?

Refining margins are critical for HF Sinclair's profitability, and any significant changes could impact investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for HF Sinclair to maintain high refining margins despite market volatility, especially given recent strong performance.

Supporting Evidence

HF Sinclair has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting strong management execution.

Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, reflecting uncertainty that could be resolved positively.

The company's previous quarter's performance shows resilience in a challenging market.

Key Risk

If refining margins remain strong, it could lead to a significant upward revision in earnings expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether HF Sinclair can sustain its impressive performance from the last quarter amidst fluctuating oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $3.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong ongoing profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.50 would confirm the bear case, suggesting a decline in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.74%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±18.7% while DINO has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

40.1%

Calls (66K)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (11K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 24 of 30 (80%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If HF Sinclair beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise, potentially confirming a strong operational trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience a muted reaction.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline in stock price, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-LAJulia LetlowRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margin trends and their impact on profitability.
2Management's outlook on oil price fluctuations and their expected impact on operations.
3Details on any new initiatives or investments in refining capacity.
4Insights into demand trends for gasoline and diesel products.
5Any commentary on regulatory changes affecting the energy sector.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales, an important factor for assessing its operational performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

DINO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+366.14%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.79%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, HF Sinclair reported an impressive EPS of $3.56, significantly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.92% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If the company continues to outperform expectations, particularly in refining margins and overall profitability, it could see significant stock appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet previous performance levels or if refining margins decline, it could lead to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

Given the previous quarter's significant EPS surprise, investors will be closely watching this figure to gauge ongoing profitability.

How have refining margins changed this quarter?

Refining margins are critical for HF Sinclair's profitability, and any significant changes could impact investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for HF Sinclair to maintain high refining margins despite market volatility, especially given recent strong performance.

Supporting Evidence

HF Sinclair has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting strong management execution.

Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, reflecting uncertainty that could be resolved positively.

The company's previous quarter's performance shows resilience in a challenging market.

Key Risk

If refining margins remain strong, it could lead to a significant upward revision in earnings expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether HF Sinclair can sustain its impressive performance from the last quarter amidst fluctuating oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $3.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong ongoing profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.50 would confirm the bear case, suggesting a decline in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.74%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±18.7% while DINO has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

40.1%

Calls (66K)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (11K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If HF Sinclair beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise, potentially confirming a strong operational trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience a muted reaction.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline in stock price, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-LAJulia LetlowRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margin trends and their impact on profitability.
2Management's outlook on oil price fluctuations and their expected impact on operations.
3Details on any new initiatives or investments in refining capacity.
4Insights into demand trends for gasoline and diesel products.
5Any commentary on regulatory changes affecting the energy sector.