Equity Profile

DINO

HF Sinclair Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$16.3B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. As a significant player in the energy market, its performance is closely tied to oil prices and overall energy demand, which are influenced by global economic conditions.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company managed costs and revenues this quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales, which is crucial in a fluctuating energy market.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

DINO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+366.14%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.79%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, HF Sinclair reported an impressive EPS of $3.56, significantly exceeding expectations. This strong performance led to a 2.92% increase in stock price the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about HF Sinclair's upcoming earnings, especially following the strong surprise in the last quarter. However, the lack of analyst estimates adds uncertainty to expectations.

Bull Case

If the company continues to outperform expectations, particularly in refining margins and overall profitability, it could see significant stock appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to maintain its previous performance levels or if refining margins decline, it could lead to a negative reaction from investors.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the refining margins for this quarter?

Refining margins are crucial for understanding profitability, and any significant change could impact investor sentiment.

How does management view the outlook for oil prices in the coming months?

Management's perspective on oil prices will provide insight into potential revenue and profitability trends.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for refining margins to remain strong despite market volatility, leading to better-than-expected EPS.

Supporting Evidence

HF Sinclair has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, suggesting a trend of strong performance.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating that traders expect significant volatility.

Recent trends in oil prices may not fully reflect the company's operational efficiency and cost management.

Key Risk

If refining margins come in below $10 per barrel, it could shift the market's perception dramatically.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter centers around the sustainability of refining margins in a volatile oil market.

Bull Confirmed If

Refining margins exceeding $15 per barrel would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Refining margins falling below $10 per barrel would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.74%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±18.7% while DINO has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

40.1%

Calls (66K)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (11K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 24 of 30 (80%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If HF Sinclair beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.81%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess future expectations.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 1.14%, as the market reacts negatively to disappointing results.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on refining margins and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Management's outlook on oil prices and their impact on future earnings.
3Any changes in operational efficiency or cost management strategies.
4Insights into demand for refined products in the current economic climate.
5Responses to any regulatory changes affecting the energy sector.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company managed costs and revenues this quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales, which is crucial in a fluctuating energy market.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

DINO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+366.14%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.79%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, HF Sinclair reported an impressive EPS of $3.56, significantly exceeding expectations. This strong performance led to a 2.92% increase in stock price the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If the company continues to outperform expectations, particularly in refining margins and overall profitability, it could see significant stock appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to maintain its previous performance levels or if refining margins decline, it could lead to a negative reaction from investors.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the refining margins for this quarter?

Refining margins are crucial for understanding profitability, and any significant change could impact investor sentiment.

How does management view the outlook for oil prices in the coming months?

Management's perspective on oil prices will provide insight into potential revenue and profitability trends.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for refining margins to remain strong despite market volatility, leading to better-than-expected EPS.

Supporting Evidence

HF Sinclair has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, suggesting a trend of strong performance.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating that traders expect significant volatility.

Recent trends in oil prices may not fully reflect the company's operational efficiency and cost management.

Key Risk

If refining margins come in below $10 per barrel, it could shift the market's perception dramatically.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter centers around the sustainability of refining margins in a volatile oil market.

Bull Confirmed If

Refining margins exceeding $15 per barrel would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Refining margins falling below $10 per barrel would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.74%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±18.7% while DINO has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

40.1%

Calls (66K)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (11K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If HF Sinclair beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.81%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess future expectations.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 1.14%, as the market reacts negatively to disappointing results.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on refining margins and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Management's outlook on oil prices and their impact on future earnings.
3Any changes in operational efficiency or cost management strategies.
4Insights into demand for refined products in the current economic climate.
5Responses to any regulatory changes affecting the energy sector.