Equity Profile

DINO

HF Sinclair Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$12.9B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) operates in the energy sector, specifically focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. As a key player in the energy market, its performance can be influenced by fluctuating oil prices, regulatory changes, and shifts in consumer demand for fuel products.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, especially after a strong performance last quarter.

$3.56

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will provide insight into the company's ability to expand its market share and respond to changing energy demands.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

DINO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+366.14%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.79%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, HF Sinclair reported an impressive EPS of $3.56, significantly surpassing expectations. This strong performance led to a positive stock reaction, indicating investor confidence.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management highlighted a focus on optimizing refining operations.
They committed to maintaining cost discipline amid fluctuating oil prices.
Plans to explore new market opportunities were also discussed.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about HF Sinclair's upcoming earnings, especially after a strong Q1 performance. However, concerns about oil price volatility and refining margins linger.

Bull Case

If the company can replicate its previous EPS surprise and show strong revenue growth, it could lead to a significant stock rally.

Bear Case

On the flip side, any signs of declining refining margins or weaker-than-expected demand could lead to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$3.56

EPS is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, especially after a strong performance last quarter.

Revenue Growth

N/A

Revenue growth will provide insight into the company's ability to expand its market share and respond to changing energy demands.

Refining Margins

N/A

Refining margins are essential for understanding profitability in the oil refining segment, which can be impacted by crude oil prices and demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to last quarter?

Given the strong performance last quarter, investors will be keen to see if HF Sinclair can maintain its momentum.

How are refining margins expected to trend in the upcoming quarter?

Refining margins are critical for profitability, and any guidance on this will heavily influence investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for refining margins to improve, given recent trends in oil prices and demand recovery.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating heightened expectations.

HF Sinclair's recent operational improvements may not be fully reflected in consensus estimates.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed expectations, it could significantly alter the outlook for profitability.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The debate this quarter centers around whether HF Sinclair can sustain its profitability amid fluctuating oil prices and refining margins.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $3.75 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.50 would support the bear case, suggesting significant challenges in the refining segment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.74%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±18.7% while DINO has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

40.1%

Calls (66K)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (11K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 23 of 30 (77%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.6% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If HF Sinclair beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 3.81% on average, confirming a strong operational outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors reassess their expectations.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.14%, as seen in past quarters, raising concerns about the company's ability to navigate market challenges.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-LAJulia LetlowRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margin expectations for the upcoming quarter.
2Details on operational efficiencies that may impact profitability.
3Insights into demand trends for fuel products.
4Management's outlook on oil price volatility and its potential impact.
5Any new market opportunities or strategic initiatives being pursued.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, especially after a strong performance last quarter.

$3.56

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will provide insight into the company's ability to expand its market share and respond to changing energy demands.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

DINO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+366.14%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.79%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, HF Sinclair reported an impressive EPS of $3.56, significantly surpassing expectations. This strong performance led to a positive stock reaction, indicating investor confidence.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management highlighted a focus on optimizing refining operations.
They committed to maintaining cost discipline amid fluctuating oil prices.
Plans to explore new market opportunities were also discussed.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about HF Sinclair's upcoming earnings, especially after a strong Q1 performance. However, concerns about oil price volatility and refining margins linger.

Bull Case

If the company can replicate its previous EPS surprise and show strong revenue growth, it could lead to a significant stock rally.

Bear Case

On the flip side, any signs of declining refining margins or weaker-than-expected demand could lead to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$3.56

EPS is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, especially after a strong performance last quarter.

Revenue Growth

N/A

Revenue growth will provide insight into the company's ability to expand its market share and respond to changing energy demands.

Refining Margins

N/A

Refining margins are essential for understanding profitability in the oil refining segment, which can be impacted by crude oil prices and demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to last quarter?

Given the strong performance last quarter, investors will be keen to see if HF Sinclair can maintain its momentum.

How are refining margins expected to trend in the upcoming quarter?

Refining margins are critical for profitability, and any guidance on this will heavily influence investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for refining margins to improve, given recent trends in oil prices and demand recovery.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating heightened expectations.

HF Sinclair's recent operational improvements may not be fully reflected in consensus estimates.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed expectations, it could significantly alter the outlook for profitability.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The debate this quarter centers around whether HF Sinclair can sustain its profitability amid fluctuating oil prices and refining margins.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $3.75 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.50 would support the bear case, suggesting significant challenges in the refining segment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.74%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±18.7% while DINO has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

40.1%

Calls (66K)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (11K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If HF Sinclair beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 3.81% on average, confirming a strong operational outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors reassess their expectations.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.14%, as seen in past quarters, raising concerns about the company's ability to navigate market challenges.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-LAJulia LetlowRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margin expectations for the upcoming quarter.
2Details on operational efficiencies that may impact profitability.
3Insights into demand trends for fuel products.
4Management's outlook on oil price volatility and its potential impact.
5Any new market opportunities or strategic initiatives being pursued.