Equity Profile

ETSY

Etsy, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryBroadline Retail$6.3B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Etsy, Inc. is an online marketplace that connects buyers and sellers of handmade, vintage, and unique goods....

Key Metrics to Watch

Active Buyers

This metric indicates the growth of Etsy's user base and overall marketplace health.

40 million

Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS)

GMS reflects the total sales value of goods sold through the platform, crucial for assessing revenue potential.

$3 billion

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ETSY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Etsy, Inc. is an online marketplace that connects buyers and sellers of handmade, vintage, and unique goods. As a player in the consumer discretionary sector, Etsy benefits from trends in e-commerce and consumer spending, particularly among those seeking personalized and artisanal products.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.55%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Etsy reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.60, slightly missing estimates. The stock reacted positively, gaining over 10% the following day, indicating some investor optimism despite the miss.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of Etsy's Q2 earnings, with expectations for growth in active buyers and GMS. However, recent earnings misses have raised concerns about the company's ability to meet or exceed forecasts.

Bull Case

If Etsy shows strong growth in active buyers and GMS, it could signal a robust recovery in consumer spending and increased market share.

Bear Case

Conversely, a continued trend of earnings misses or weak guidance could lead to further declines in investor confidence and stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Active Buyers

40 million

This metric indicates the growth of Etsy's user base and overall marketplace health.

Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS)

$3 billion

GMS reflects the total sales value of goods sold through the platform, crucial for assessing revenue potential.

Average Order Value (AOV)

$55

AOV helps gauge consumer spending behavior and the effectiveness of Etsy's marketplace.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will active buyers exceed 40 million this quarter?

Growth in active buyers is crucial for Etsy's long-term success and indicates the platform's popularity.

What will be the gross merchandise sales (GMS) for Q2?

GMS is a key indicator of revenue potential and overall marketplace performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Etsy's ability to recover from recent misses, as the focus on active buyers and GMS could lead to a stronger performance than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 14.75% move, indicating significant uncertainty that may not be justified by historical performance.

Etsy's unique market position and focus on handmade goods may insulate it from broader retail trends.

Insider selling could suggest a lack of confidence, but it may also reflect individual financial strategies rather than company performance.

Key Risk

If active buyers come in above 40 million, it could shift sentiment significantly.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the potential for growth against recent performance trends and consumer spending patterns.

Bull Confirmed If

Active buyers growth above 40 million and GMS exceeding $3 billion would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in active buyers or GMS falling below $2.8 billion would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.75%

Historical Avg

±6.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±14.7% while ETSY has averaged ±6.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

58.2%

Calls (696K)P/C Ratio: 0.33Puts (231K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$7.9M

124,665 sh

1 insider

Net

$7.9M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 3 open-market trades

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Etsy beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 10% or more, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If Etsy misses again, history suggests the stock could drop by around 1.8%, leading to increased skepticism about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on active buyer growth and strategies to attract new users.
2Details on GMS and how it compares to previous quarters.
3Any commentary on the competitive landscape and market trends.
4Insights into consumer spending patterns and how they affect Etsy's sales.
5Management's outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Etsy, Inc. is an online marketplace that connects buyers and sellers of handmade, vintage, and unique goods....

Key Metrics to Watch

Active Buyers

This metric indicates the growth of Etsy's user base and overall marketplace health.

40 million

Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS)

GMS reflects the total sales value of goods sold through the platform, crucial for assessing revenue potential.

$3 billion

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ETSY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.55%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Etsy shows strong growth in active buyers and GMS, it could signal a robust recovery in consumer spending and increased market share.

Bear Case

Conversely, a continued trend of earnings misses or weak guidance could lead to further declines in investor confidence and stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Active Buyers

40 million

This metric indicates the growth of Etsy's user base and overall marketplace health.

Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS)

$3 billion

GMS reflects the total sales value of goods sold through the platform, crucial for assessing revenue potential.

Average Order Value (AOV)

$55

AOV helps gauge consumer spending behavior and the effectiveness of Etsy's marketplace.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will active buyers exceed 40 million this quarter?

Growth in active buyers is crucial for Etsy's long-term success and indicates the platform's popularity.

What will be the gross merchandise sales (GMS) for Q2?

GMS is a key indicator of revenue potential and overall marketplace performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Etsy's ability to recover from recent misses, as the focus on active buyers and GMS could lead to a stronger performance than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 14.75% move, indicating significant uncertainty that may not be justified by historical performance.

Etsy's unique market position and focus on handmade goods may insulate it from broader retail trends.

Insider selling could suggest a lack of confidence, but it may also reflect individual financial strategies rather than company performance.

Key Risk

If active buyers come in above 40 million, it could shift sentiment significantly.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the potential for growth against recent performance trends and consumer spending patterns.

Bull Confirmed If

Active buyers growth above 40 million and GMS exceeding $3 billion would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in active buyers or GMS falling below $2.8 billion would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.75%

Historical Avg

±6.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±14.7% while ETSY has averaged ±6.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

58.2%

Calls (696K)P/C Ratio: 0.33Puts (231K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$7.9M

124,665 sh

1 insider

Net

$7.9M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 3 open-market trades

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Etsy beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 10% or more, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If Etsy misses again, history suggests the stock could drop by around 1.8%, leading to increased skepticism about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on active buyer growth and strategies to attract new users.
2Details on GMS and how it compares to previous quarters.
3Any commentary on the competitive landscape and market trends.
4Insights into consumer spending patterns and how they affect Etsy's sales.
5Management's outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year.