Equity Profile

ETSY

Etsy, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryBroadline Retail$7.6B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Etsy, Inc. is an online marketplace focused on handmade, vintage items, and craft supplies....

Key Metrics to Watch

Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS)

GMS reflects the total sales made through the platform and is crucial for understanding Etsy's growth and market demand.

N/A

Active Sellers

The number of active sellers indicates the platform's engagement and can signal future revenue potential.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ETSY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Etsy, Inc. is an online marketplace focused on handmade, vintage items, and craft supplies. As a key player in the consumer discretionary sector, Etsy benefits from trends in e-commerce and consumer spending, particularly among those seeking unique products.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.55%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Etsy reported an EPS of $0.60, slightly below the expected $0.62, resulting in a 10.11% stock increase the following day. The company continues to navigate a competitive e-commerce landscape.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, Wall Street is cautiously optimistic about Etsy's upcoming earnings, particularly after a mixed performance in the previous quarter. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in key metrics.

Bull Case

If Etsy shows strong growth in GMS and active sellers, it could indicate a robust recovery in consumer spending, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Etsy's metrics show stagnation or decline, it may raise concerns about its competitive position and future growth, potentially leading to a negative stock reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the growth rate of Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) this quarter?

GMS growth is a key indicator of Etsy's market performance and can influence investor sentiment significantly.

How many active sellers are currently on the platform?

The number of active sellers is essential for understanding Etsy's marketplace dynamics and future revenue potential.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Etsy's potential for recovery in GMS and active sellers, particularly as consumer spending trends shift back towards unique and handmade products.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends in consumer preferences indicate a growing interest in unique products, which could benefit Etsy.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility.

Etsy's previous quarter showed a surprising stock increase despite an EPS miss, indicating resilience.

Key Risk

If GMS growth exceeds 15%, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment and lead to a significant upward revision in stock price.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on Etsy's ability to demonstrate growth in key metrics amidst a challenging retail environment.

Bull Confirmed If

A GMS growth rate of over 15% would confirm the bull case, indicating strong consumer demand.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in active sellers or negative GMS growth would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about Etsy's competitive position.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.75%

Historical Avg

±6.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±14.7% while ETSY has averaged ±6.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

58.2%

Calls (696K)P/C Ratio: 0.33Puts (231K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 15 of 28 (54%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 15 of 28 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.4% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Etsy beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 10% or more, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 1.84% on average, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) growth compared to last quarter.
2Any changes in the number of active sellers and what that implies for future growth.
3Management's outlook on consumer spending trends and how they affect Etsy's strategy.
4Insights into competitive pressures in the e-commerce space and Etsy's response.
5Any commentary on new initiatives or features aimed at boosting seller engagement.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Jul27

DYNBMO

Dyne Therapeutics, Inc.

PreviewView

Jul27

ARLPBMO

Company Snapshot

Etsy, Inc. is an online marketplace focused on handmade, vintage items, and craft supplies....

Key Metrics to Watch

Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS)

GMS reflects the total sales made through the platform and is crucial for understanding Etsy's growth and market demand.

N/A

Active Sellers

The number of active sellers indicates the platform's engagement and can signal future revenue potential.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ETSY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-31.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.55%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Etsy shows strong growth in GMS and active sellers, it could indicate a robust recovery in consumer spending, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Etsy's metrics show stagnation or decline, it may raise concerns about its competitive position and future growth, potentially leading to a negative stock reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the growth rate of Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) this quarter?

GMS growth is a key indicator of Etsy's market performance and can influence investor sentiment significantly.

How many active sellers are currently on the platform?

The number of active sellers is essential for understanding Etsy's marketplace dynamics and future revenue potential.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Etsy's potential for recovery in GMS and active sellers, particularly as consumer spending trends shift back towards unique and handmade products.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends in consumer preferences indicate a growing interest in unique products, which could benefit Etsy.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility.

Etsy's previous quarter showed a surprising stock increase despite an EPS miss, indicating resilience.

Key Risk

If GMS growth exceeds 15%, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment and lead to a significant upward revision in stock price.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on Etsy's ability to demonstrate growth in key metrics amidst a challenging retail environment.

Bull Confirmed If

A GMS growth rate of over 15% would confirm the bull case, indicating strong consumer demand.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in active sellers or negative GMS growth would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about Etsy's competitive position.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.75%

Historical Avg

±6.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±14.7% while ETSY has averaged ±6.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

58.2%

Calls (696K)P/C Ratio: 0.33Puts (231K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 15 of 28 (54%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Etsy beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 10% or more, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 1.84% on average, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) growth compared to last quarter.
2Any changes in the number of active sellers and what that implies for future growth.
3Management's outlook on consumer spending trends and how they affect Etsy's strategy.
4Insights into competitive pressures in the e-commerce space and Etsy's response.
5Any commentary on new initiatives or features aimed at boosting seller engagement.