Equity Profile

FICO

Fair Isaac Corporation

Information TechnologyApplication Software$26.4B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ3-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is a technology company that specializes in analytics and decision management software. Its solutions are widely used in various industries, including finance and insurance, to help businesses make better decisions based on data....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Not available

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its business and capture market share, which is vital for investor confidence.

Not available

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

FICO Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+21.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.76%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2-2026, FICO reported an EPS of $12.50, significantly beating expectations by over 30%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the strong earnings.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued investment in AI and machine learning capabilities.
Focus on expanding customer base in emerging markets.
Commitment to enhancing product offerings through innovation.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for FICO's upcoming earnings are mixed, with investors hoping for continued strong performance but cautious about potential market volatility.

Bull Case

If FICO can maintain its strong EPS growth and demonstrate solid revenue increases, it could signal robust demand for its products, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet earnings expectations or shows signs of slowing growth, it could lead to a negative reaction from investors.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed $12.50 again this quarter?

Exceeding this EPS figure would reinforce the company's strong performance trend and boost investor confidence.

What are the specific revenue growth figures for key segments?

Understanding revenue growth in specific segments will help gauge the company's market position and future prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate FICO's ability to leverage its AI capabilities for revenue growth, especially in emerging markets.

Supporting Evidence

FICO's recent investments in AI could lead to higher-than-expected demand for its products.

The company's strong historical EPS performance suggests it may continue to outperform expectations.

Options pricing indicates a significant move, which could reflect investor uncertainty rather than a bearish outlook.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment among analysts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will either reinforce FICO's growth narrative or raise concerns about its market competitiveness.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $13.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $11.00 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues with growth or profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.45%

Historical Avg

±1.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±5.4% while FICO has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

42.7%

Calls (42K)P/C Ratio: 1.38Puts (65K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If FICO beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.76%, confirming a strong growth trajectory.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may remain flat as investors reassess future growth prospects.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 0.72%, indicating investor disappointment and potential concerns about future performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·2 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$4,004.00–$60,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
3

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on AI product adoption rates.
2Details on customer acquisition strategies in emerging markets.
3Insights into competitive pressures and market share.
4Management's outlook on future revenue growth.
5Any changes in guidance or strategic priorities.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Not available

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its business and capture market share, which is vital for investor confidence.

Not available

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

FICO Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+21.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.76%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued investment in AI and machine learning capabilities.
Focus on expanding customer base in emerging markets.
Commitment to enhancing product offerings through innovation.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for FICO's upcoming earnings are mixed, with investors hoping for continued strong performance but cautious about potential market volatility.

Bull Case

If FICO can maintain its strong EPS growth and demonstrate solid revenue increases, it could signal robust demand for its products, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet earnings expectations or shows signs of slowing growth, it could lead to a negative reaction from investors.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed $12.50 again this quarter?

Exceeding this EPS figure would reinforce the company's strong performance trend and boost investor confidence.

What are the specific revenue growth figures for key segments?

Understanding revenue growth in specific segments will help gauge the company's market position and future prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate FICO's ability to leverage its AI capabilities for revenue growth, especially in emerging markets.

Supporting Evidence

FICO's recent investments in AI could lead to higher-than-expected demand for its products.

The company's strong historical EPS performance suggests it may continue to outperform expectations.

Options pricing indicates a significant move, which could reflect investor uncertainty rather than a bearish outlook.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment among analysts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will either reinforce FICO's growth narrative or raise concerns about its market competitiveness.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $13.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $11.00 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues with growth or profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.45%

Historical Avg

±1.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±5.4% while FICO has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

42.7%

Calls (42K)P/C Ratio: 1.38Puts (65K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If FICO beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.76%, confirming a strong growth trajectory.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may remain flat as investors reassess future growth prospects.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 0.72%, indicating investor disappointment and potential concerns about future performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·2 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$4,004.00–$60,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
3

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on AI product adoption rates.
2Details on customer acquisition strategies in emerging markets.
3Insights into competitive pressures and market share.
4Management's outlook on future revenue growth.
5Any changes in guidance or strategic priorities.