Equity Profile

FICO

Fair Isaac Corporation

Information TechnologyApplication Software$24.0B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ3-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) operates in the Information Technology sector, specializing in application software that helps businesses make better decisions through data analytics. As a leader in credit scoring and risk management solutions, FICO plays a crucial role in various industries, especially in finance and insurance, where data-driven insights are increasingly important.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will show how well FICO is managing its costs and generating income.

$11.11

Revenue

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's market demand and overall business health, especially in a competitive tech landscape.

$665M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

FICO Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+21.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.76%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2026, FICO reported an impressive EPS of $12.50, significantly surpassing the estimate of $9.60, reflecting strong operational performance. However, the stock saw a slight decline the following day, indicating mixed market reactions despite the positive earnings surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about FICO's upcoming earnings, expecting strong EPS and revenue figures based on historical performance. The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, which may set high expectations for this report.

Bull Case

If FICO continues its trend of exceeding EPS estimates, it could signal robust demand for its products and services, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet the high expectations set by its previous performances, it could lead to a disappointing market reaction, especially given the current options pricing.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$11.11

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will show how well FICO is managing its costs and generating income.

Revenue

$665M

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's market demand and overall business health, especially in a competitive tech landscape.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will FICO's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $11.11?

Given the company's strong history of beating EPS estimates, this number will be crucial for market sentiment and stock performance.

What revenue figure will FICO report compared to the consensus of $665M?

Revenue growth is vital for assessing the company's market position and demand for its services, impacting investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate FICO's ability to leverage its recent technological advancements, particularly in AI-driven analytics, which could lead to higher-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

FICO has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting a trend of underestimated performance.

Options pricing indicates a high expected move, signaling that traders anticipate significant news or developments.

The company's strong historical performance in similar setups points to potential for continued success.

Key Risk

If revenue growth significantly outpaces expectations, it could invalidate the cautious outlook currently held by analysts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the debate centers around whether FICO can maintain its growth trajectory in a competitive software market.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $12.00 or higher with revenue exceeding $675M would confirm strong operational momentum.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $10.50 or revenue below $650M would raise concerns about demand and profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.4%

Historical Avg

±1.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 5.4%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±5.4% while FICO has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

42.7%

Calls (42K)P/C Ratio: 1.38Puts (65K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology

n=30

Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 4 of 9 faded and 5 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If FICO beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction, averaging a +0.76% move on such occasions.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to minimal movement as investors digest the news.

Miss

A miss could lead to a negative reaction, with historical data indicating an average decline of -0.72% when expectations are not met.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or enhancements in FICO's analytics solutions.
2Insights into customer demand trends, particularly in key sectors like finance and insurance.
3Management's commentary on competitive pressures and how they plan to address them.
4Any guidance on future earnings or revenue expectations for the next quarter.
5Details on operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will show how well FICO is managing its costs and generating income.

$11.11

Revenue

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's market demand and overall business health, especially in a competitive tech landscape.

$665M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

FICO Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+21.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.76%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If FICO continues its trend of exceeding EPS estimates, it could signal robust demand for its products and services, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet the high expectations set by its previous performances, it could lead to a disappointing market reaction, especially given the current options pricing.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$11.11

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will show how well FICO is managing its costs and generating income.

Revenue

$665M

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's market demand and overall business health, especially in a competitive tech landscape.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will FICO's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $11.11?

Given the company's strong history of beating EPS estimates, this number will be crucial for market sentiment and stock performance.

What revenue figure will FICO report compared to the consensus of $665M?

Revenue growth is vital for assessing the company's market position and demand for its services, impacting investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate FICO's ability to leverage its recent technological advancements, particularly in AI-driven analytics, which could lead to higher-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

FICO has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting a trend of underestimated performance.

Options pricing indicates a high expected move, signaling that traders anticipate significant news or developments.

The company's strong historical performance in similar setups points to potential for continued success.

Key Risk

If revenue growth significantly outpaces expectations, it could invalidate the cautious outlook currently held by analysts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the debate centers around whether FICO can maintain its growth trajectory in a competitive software market.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $12.00 or higher with revenue exceeding $675M would confirm strong operational momentum.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $10.50 or revenue below $650M would raise concerns about demand and profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.4%

Historical Avg

±1.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 5.4%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±5.4% while FICO has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

42.7%

Calls (42K)P/C Ratio: 1.38Puts (65K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology

n=30

Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If FICO beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction, averaging a +0.76% move on such occasions.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to minimal movement as investors digest the news.

Miss

A miss could lead to a negative reaction, with historical data indicating an average decline of -0.72% when expectations are not met.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or enhancements in FICO's analytics solutions.
2Insights into customer demand trends, particularly in key sectors like finance and insurance.
3Management's commentary on competitive pressures and how they plan to address them.
4Any guidance on future earnings or revenue expectations for the next quarter.
5Details on operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.