Equity Profile

FRME

First Merchants Corporation

FinancialsRegional Banks$2.7B

Jul22Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

First Merchants Corporation is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services, including commercial banking, mortgage lending, and wealth management. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in serving local businesses and communities.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance this quarter.

Expected to be around $1.03.

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid, crucial for understanding the bank's profitability.

Not available.

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

FRME Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.71%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.11%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, First Merchants reported an EPS of $1.03, surpassing estimates by 7.63%. The stock experienced a slight increase of 0.02% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on expanding commercial lending.
Commitment to improving customer service and digital banking capabilities.
Plans to enhance operational efficiency.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for First Merchants are cautiously optimistic, given its recent EPS beats. However, the lack of detailed guidance may lead to uncertainty among investors.

Bull Case

If the bank continues to show strong loan growth and maintains a healthy net interest margin, it could significantly boost profitability, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, any signs of slowing loan growth or widening net interest margins could raise concerns about future earnings, potentially leading to a negative response from the market.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Expected to be around $1.03.

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance this quarter.

Net Interest Margin

Not available.

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid, crucial for understanding the bank's profitability.

Loan Growth

Not available.

Loan growth indicates the bank's ability to expand its lending business, which is vital for revenue generation.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected loan growth rate for Q2-2026?

Loan growth is crucial for revenue generation, and any slowdown could impact future earnings.

How is the bank managing its net interest margin in the current interest rate environment?

Understanding the bank's strategy regarding net interest margin will help gauge its profitability and overall financial health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the bank's potential for loan growth due to recent economic trends favoring regional banks.

Supporting Evidence

The bank has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger performance than anticipated.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors expect more volatility than the current consensus reflects.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds 10%, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the bank's ability to sustain loan growth and manage its net interest margin amid changing economic conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

Loan growth of over 10% year-over-year would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A loan growth rate below 5% could confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±24.81%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±24.8% while FRME has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

30d HV

19.5%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If First Merchants beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.5% based on past performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may remain flat or see a slight decline.

Miss

In the event of a miss, history suggests a potential decline of around 2.04%, as the market reacts negatively to disappointing results.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth projections for the upcoming quarter.
2Details on how the bank is managing its net interest margin.
3Insights into customer demand for banking services.
4Any commentary on competitive pressures in the regional banking sector.
5Updates on digital banking initiatives and their impact on customer acquisition.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Domino's Pizza, Inc.

Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance this quarter.

Expected to be around $1.03.

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid, crucial for understanding the bank's profitability.

Not available.

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

FRME Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.71%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.11%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, First Merchants reported an EPS of $1.03, surpassing estimates by 7.63%. The stock experienced a slight increase of 0.02% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on expanding commercial lending.
Commitment to improving customer service and digital banking capabilities.
Plans to enhance operational efficiency.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for First Merchants are cautiously optimistic, given its recent EPS beats. However, the lack of detailed guidance may lead to uncertainty among investors.

Bull Case

If the bank continues to show strong loan growth and maintains a healthy net interest margin, it could significantly boost profitability, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, any signs of slowing loan growth or widening net interest margins could raise concerns about future earnings, potentially leading to a negative response from the market.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Expected to be around $1.03.

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance this quarter.

Net Interest Margin

Not available.

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid, crucial for understanding the bank's profitability.

Loan Growth

Not available.

Loan growth indicates the bank's ability to expand its lending business, which is vital for revenue generation.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected loan growth rate for Q2-2026?

Loan growth is crucial for revenue generation, and any slowdown could impact future earnings.

How is the bank managing its net interest margin in the current interest rate environment?

Understanding the bank's strategy regarding net interest margin will help gauge its profitability and overall financial health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the bank's potential for loan growth due to recent economic trends favoring regional banks.

Supporting Evidence

The bank has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger performance than anticipated.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors expect more volatility than the current consensus reflects.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds 10%, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the bank's ability to sustain loan growth and manage its net interest margin amid changing economic conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

Loan growth of over 10% year-over-year would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A loan growth rate below 5% could confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±24.81%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±24.8% while FRME has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

30d HV

19.5%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If First Merchants beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.5% based on past performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may remain flat or see a slight decline.

Miss

In the event of a miss, history suggests a potential decline of around 2.04%, as the market reacts negatively to disappointing results.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth projections for the upcoming quarter.
2Details on how the bank is managing its net interest margin.
3Insights into customer demand for banking services.
4Any commentary on competitive pressures in the regional banking sector.
5Updates on digital banking initiatives and their impact on customer acquisition.