Equity Profile

HLT

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryHotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines$74.6B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) is a leading global hospitality company that manages and franchises a broad portfolio of hotels and resorts....

Key Metrics to Watch

Occupancy Rate

This metric is crucial as it directly reflects the demand for Hilton's properties and can indicate overall business health.

75%

Average Daily Rate (ADR)

ADR is important for understanding pricing power and revenue generation per room, which impacts overall profitability.

$150

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

HLT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) is a leading global hospitality company that manages and franchises a broad portfolio of hotels and resorts. As a key player in the consumer discretionary sector, Hilton benefits from trends in travel and tourism, which can be influenced by economic conditions and consumer spending patterns.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.86%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.24%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Hilton reported an EPS of $2.01, beating estimates by 2.5%. However, the stock fell by 2.73% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding the hotel portfolio in key markets.
Commitment to enhancing customer experience through technology.
Plans to improve sustainability practices across operations.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of Hilton's Q2-2026 earnings report, especially given the company's strong track record of beating earnings estimates.

Bull Case

If Hilton continues to capitalize on rising travel demand and maintains strong occupancy rates, it could see significant revenue growth, leading to higher stock prices.

Bear Case

Conversely, if economic conditions worsen or if travel demand declines, Hilton may struggle to maintain its occupancy rates and pricing power, negatively impacting earnings.

Key Metrics to Watch

Occupancy Rate

75%

This metric is crucial as it directly reflects the demand for Hilton's properties and can indicate overall business health.

Average Daily Rate (ADR)

$150

ADR is important for understanding pricing power and revenue generation per room, which impacts overall profitability.

Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR)

$112.50

RevPAR combines occupancy and ADR, providing a comprehensive view of revenue performance.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the occupancy rate be for Q2-2026?

Occupancy rates are a key indicator of demand and can significantly impact revenue and profitability.

How has the Average Daily Rate (ADR) changed compared to last quarter?

Changes in ADR will provide insight into Hilton's pricing power and ability to generate revenue amidst competitive pressures.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Hilton's ability to maintain high occupancy rates due to pent-up travel demand and effective marketing strategies.

Supporting Evidence

Hilton has consistently beaten earnings estimates, indicating stronger performance than expected.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential overreaction.

Recent trends in travel suggest a rebound that may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If occupancy rates exceed 80%, it could invalidate bearish sentiment and drive stock prices higher.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on how well Hilton can attract guests and maintain pricing amidst economic fluctuations.

Bull Confirmed If

Occupancy rate exceeding 80% would confirm strong demand and pricing power.

Bear Confirmed If

Occupancy rate falling below 70% would indicate potential weakness in demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.96%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move for Hilton's stock following the earnings report, indicating heightened investor uncertainty.

Options are pricing ±13.0% while HLT has averaged ±2.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

28.7%

Calls (20K)P/C Ratio: 0.25Puts (25K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Hilton beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.24%, confirming the bullish outlook on travel demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may remain flat or see a slight decline.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a drop, with historical patterns suggesting a potential average decline of around 2.5%.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

Senate only

Est. Notional

$15,001.00–$50,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OKMarkwayne MullinSen.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on occupancy rates and how they compare to pre-pandemic levels.
2Details on pricing strategies and any changes to ADR.
3Insights into customer preferences and how Hilton is adapting to them.
4Any commentary on expansion plans in key markets.
5Management's outlook on travel trends for the remainder of the year.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) is a leading global hospitality company that manages and franchises a broad portfolio of hotels and resorts....

Key Metrics to Watch

Occupancy Rate

This metric is crucial as it directly reflects the demand for Hilton's properties and can indicate overall business health.

75%

Average Daily Rate (ADR)

ADR is important for understanding pricing power and revenue generation per room, which impacts overall profitability.

$150

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

HLT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.86%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.24%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Hilton reported an EPS of $2.01, beating estimates by 2.5%. However, the stock fell by 2.73% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding the hotel portfolio in key markets.
Commitment to enhancing customer experience through technology.
Plans to improve sustainability practices across operations.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of Hilton's Q2-2026 earnings report, especially given the company's strong track record of beating earnings estimates.

Bull Case

If Hilton continues to capitalize on rising travel demand and maintains strong occupancy rates, it could see significant revenue growth, leading to higher stock prices.

Bear Case

Conversely, if economic conditions worsen or if travel demand declines, Hilton may struggle to maintain its occupancy rates and pricing power, negatively impacting earnings.

Key Metrics to Watch

Occupancy Rate

75%

This metric is crucial as it directly reflects the demand for Hilton's properties and can indicate overall business health.

Average Daily Rate (ADR)

$150

ADR is important for understanding pricing power and revenue generation per room, which impacts overall profitability.

Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR)

$112.50

RevPAR combines occupancy and ADR, providing a comprehensive view of revenue performance.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the occupancy rate be for Q2-2026?

Occupancy rates are a key indicator of demand and can significantly impact revenue and profitability.

How has the Average Daily Rate (ADR) changed compared to last quarter?

Changes in ADR will provide insight into Hilton's pricing power and ability to generate revenue amidst competitive pressures.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Hilton's ability to maintain high occupancy rates due to pent-up travel demand and effective marketing strategies.

Supporting Evidence

Hilton has consistently beaten earnings estimates, indicating stronger performance than expected.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential overreaction.

Recent trends in travel suggest a rebound that may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If occupancy rates exceed 80%, it could invalidate bearish sentiment and drive stock prices higher.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on how well Hilton can attract guests and maintain pricing amidst economic fluctuations.

Bull Confirmed If

Occupancy rate exceeding 80% would confirm strong demand and pricing power.

Bear Confirmed If

Occupancy rate falling below 70% would indicate potential weakness in demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.96%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move for Hilton's stock following the earnings report, indicating heightened investor uncertainty.

Options are pricing ±13.0% while HLT has averaged ±2.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

28.7%

Calls (20K)P/C Ratio: 0.25Puts (25K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Hilton beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.24%, confirming the bullish outlook on travel demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may remain flat or see a slight decline.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a drop, with historical patterns suggesting a potential average decline of around 2.5%.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

Senate only

Est. Notional

$15,001.00–$50,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OKMarkwayne MullinSen.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on occupancy rates and how they compare to pre-pandemic levels.
2Details on pricing strategies and any changes to ADR.
3Insights into customer preferences and how Hilton is adapting to them.
4Any commentary on expansion plans in key markets.
5Management's outlook on travel trends for the remainder of the year.