Equity Profile

HOG

Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryMotorcycle Manufacturers$2.6B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) is a leading manufacturer of motorcycles, known for its iconic brand and strong customer loyalty....

Key Metrics to Watch

Motorcycle Sales Growth

This metric indicates how well Harley-Davidson is performing in a competitive market and reflects consumer demand.

N/A

Gross Margin

Gross margin is critical for understanding profitability, especially in a sector where costs can fluctuate significantly.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

HOG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) is a leading manufacturer of motorcycles, known for its iconic brand and strong customer loyalty. As a part of the consumer discretionary sector, its performance is closely tied to consumer spending trends and the overall economy.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-8.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.56%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Harley-Davidson reported an EPS of $0.22, which was significantly below the expected $0.34, resulting in a 36% negative surprise. Despite this, the stock rose 8.19% the following day, indicating some investor optimism.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on enhancing customer experience.
Commitment to expanding electric motorcycle offerings.
Plans to streamline operations to improve profitability.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Harley-Davidson's upcoming earnings, especially after the mixed results in previous quarters. The market is looking for signs of recovery in motorcycle sales and improved margins.

Bull Case

If Harley-Davidson can demonstrate strong sales growth and improved margins, it could signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence and stock price.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company reports continued weakness in sales or rising costs, it may lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the year-over-year growth rate in motorcycle sales?

This figure will be crucial in assessing whether Harley-Davidson is regaining market traction after recent struggles.

How has the gross margin changed compared to the previous quarter?

Understanding margin trends will provide insight into the company's cost management and pricing strategies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Harley-Davidson's potential for recovery in motorcycle sales, especially with new product launches on the horizon.

Supporting Evidence

Recent insider buying suggests confidence in the company's future performance.

Options pricing indicates a higher expected move, reflecting market uncertainty.

The company's commitment to electric motorcycles could attract a new customer base.

Key Risk

If motorcycle sales growth exceeds 10%, it could shift investor sentiment dramatically.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it will indicate whether Harley-Davidson can recover from recent earnings misses and improve its financial health.

Bull Confirmed If

A motorcycle sales growth rate of over 10% year-over-year would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A gross margin decline below 30% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.37%

Historical Avg

±6.37%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move following the earnings report, reflecting uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing a 17.37% move, while the stock has averaged only 6.37% over the last 8 quarters, indicating a rich setup.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

52.4%

Calls (15K)P/C Ratio: 0.52Puts (15K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Harley-Davidson beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 6% on the first day, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further clarity from management commentary.

Miss

Should the company miss earnings expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 6% on the first day, raising concerns about ongoing challenges.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

3 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$45,003.00–$150,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-NCTim MooreRep.
3

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on electric motorcycle sales and customer interest.
2Any commentary on operational efficiency improvements.
3Insights into consumer trends affecting motorcycle purchases.
4Details on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
5Management's outlook on the competitive landscape.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) is a leading manufacturer of motorcycles, known for its iconic brand and strong customer loyalty....

Key Metrics to Watch

Motorcycle Sales Growth

This metric indicates how well Harley-Davidson is performing in a competitive market and reflects consumer demand.

N/A

Gross Margin

Gross margin is critical for understanding profitability, especially in a sector where costs can fluctuate significantly.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

HOG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-8.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.56%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on enhancing customer experience.
Commitment to expanding electric motorcycle offerings.
Plans to streamline operations to improve profitability.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Harley-Davidson can demonstrate strong sales growth and improved margins, it could signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence and stock price.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company reports continued weakness in sales or rising costs, it may lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the year-over-year growth rate in motorcycle sales?

This figure will be crucial in assessing whether Harley-Davidson is regaining market traction after recent struggles.

How has the gross margin changed compared to the previous quarter?

Understanding margin trends will provide insight into the company's cost management and pricing strategies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Harley-Davidson's potential for recovery in motorcycle sales, especially with new product launches on the horizon.

Supporting Evidence

Recent insider buying suggests confidence in the company's future performance.

Options pricing indicates a higher expected move, reflecting market uncertainty.

The company's commitment to electric motorcycles could attract a new customer base.

Key Risk

If motorcycle sales growth exceeds 10%, it could shift investor sentiment dramatically.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it will indicate whether Harley-Davidson can recover from recent earnings misses and improve its financial health.

Bull Confirmed If

A motorcycle sales growth rate of over 10% year-over-year would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A gross margin decline below 30% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.37%

Historical Avg

±6.37%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move following the earnings report, reflecting uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing a 17.37% move, while the stock has averaged only 6.37% over the last 8 quarters, indicating a rich setup.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

52.4%

Calls (15K)P/C Ratio: 0.52Puts (15K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Harley-Davidson beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 6% on the first day, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further clarity from management commentary.

Miss

Should the company miss earnings expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 6% on the first day, raising concerns about ongoing challenges.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

3 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$45,003.00–$150,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-NCTim MooreRep.
3

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on electric motorcycle sales and customer interest.
2Any commentary on operational efficiency improvements.
3Insights into consumer trends affecting motorcycle purchases.
4Details on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
5Management's outlook on the competitive landscape.