Equity Profile

HOG

Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryMotorcycle Manufacturers$2.7B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) is a well-known motorcycle manufacturer that operates in the consumer discretionary sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is critical for assessing demand for Harley-Davidson's motorcycles and related products, reflecting overall market health.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

HOG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) is a well-known motorcycle manufacturer that operates in the consumer discretionary sector. The company is significant not only for its iconic brand but also for its role in the broader recreational vehicle market, which is influenced by consumer spending trends and lifestyle choices.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-8.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.56%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Harley-Davidson reported an EPS of $0.22, which was significantly below the expected $0.34, resulting in a negative surprise of 36%. Despite this, the stock rose by 8.19% the following day, indicating some investor optimism.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Harley-Davidson's upcoming earnings are mixed, given the recent performance and lack of analyst estimates. Investors are keen to see if the company can rebound from its recent earnings misses.

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on a strong recovery in motorcycle sales and improved profitability, potentially leading to a positive earnings surprise.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to struggle with sales and profitability, it could face further declines in stock price, especially if it misses expectations again.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could heavily influence stock performance.

How have motorcycle sales volumes changed compared to last quarter?

Sales volume is a direct indicator of demand and market health, which will be closely watched by investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street might be underestimating Harley-Davidson's potential for a sales rebound, given the brand's strong following and recent marketing efforts.

Supporting Evidence

The stock has historically reacted positively to unexpected sales increases, even in challenging markets.

Recent insider buying could indicate confidence in the company's recovery potential.

Key Risk

If motorcycle sales volumes show a significant increase, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter centers around whether Harley-Davidson can recover from its recent earnings misses and improve sales performance.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS of $0.34 or better would confirm the bull case and indicate a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.22 would reinforce the bear case and raise concerns about ongoing sales struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.37%

Historical Avg

±6.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±17.4% while HOG has averaged ±6.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

52.4%

Calls (15K)P/C Ratio: 0.52Puts (15K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 16 of 28 (57%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 16 of 28 faded and 12 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.3%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Harley-Davidson beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.77% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with cautious commentary, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors assess future guidance.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations again, history indicates a potential decline of around 5.99%, raising further concerns.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$15,001.00–$50,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-NCTim MooreRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new motorcycle models and their expected impact on sales.
2Insights into consumer trends and demand for recreational vehicles.
3Management's commentary on cost management and profitability strategies.
4Details on marketing initiatives aimed at boosting brand engagement.
5Any guidance on expected sales growth for the upcoming quarters.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Jul27

DYNBMO

Dyne Therapeutics, Inc.

PreviewView

Jul27

ARLPBMO

Company Snapshot

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) is a well-known motorcycle manufacturer that operates in the consumer discretionary sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is critical for assessing demand for Harley-Davidson's motorcycles and related products, reflecting overall market health.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

HOG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-8.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.56%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on a strong recovery in motorcycle sales and improved profitability, potentially leading to a positive earnings surprise.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to struggle with sales and profitability, it could face further declines in stock price, especially if it misses expectations again.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could heavily influence stock performance.

How have motorcycle sales volumes changed compared to last quarter?

Sales volume is a direct indicator of demand and market health, which will be closely watched by investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street might be underestimating Harley-Davidson's potential for a sales rebound, given the brand's strong following and recent marketing efforts.

Supporting Evidence

The stock has historically reacted positively to unexpected sales increases, even in challenging markets.

Recent insider buying could indicate confidence in the company's recovery potential.

Key Risk

If motorcycle sales volumes show a significant increase, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter centers around whether Harley-Davidson can recover from its recent earnings misses and improve sales performance.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS of $0.34 or better would confirm the bull case and indicate a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.22 would reinforce the bear case and raise concerns about ongoing sales struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.37%

Historical Avg

±6.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±17.4% while HOG has averaged ±6.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

52.4%

Calls (15K)P/C Ratio: 0.52Puts (15K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 16 of 28 (57%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Harley-Davidson beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.77% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with cautious commentary, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors assess future guidance.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations again, history indicates a potential decline of around 5.99%, raising further concerns.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$15,001.00–$50,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-NCTim MooreRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new motorcycle models and their expected impact on sales.
2Insights into consumer trends and demand for recreational vehicles.
3Management's commentary on cost management and profitability strategies.
4Details on marketing initiatives aimed at boosting brand engagement.
5Any guidance on expected sales growth for the upcoming quarters.