Equity Profile

IP

International Paper Company

MaterialsPaper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials$19.6B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

International Paper Company (IP) is a leading provider of paper and packaging products, playing a crucial role in the materials sector. As consumer demand for sustainable packaging rises, the company's performance is closely tied to trends in e-commerce and environmental regulations.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company managed costs and revenues during the quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales, which is vital for maintaining market position and investor confidence.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

IP Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

+170.10%

Avg Stock Reaction

-4.07%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, International Paper reported an EPS of $0.15, falling short of expectations by nearly 15%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping over 9% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management indicated a focus on cost-cutting measures.
They committed to exploring new markets for packaging solutions.
There was a promise to enhance sustainability efforts in product offerings.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic but wary after several earnings misses in previous quarters. The market is looking for signs of recovery in profitability and revenue.

Bull Case

If the company can show improved margins and revenue growth, it may signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued earnings misses or weak guidance could lead to further declines in stock price, as investors may lose faith in management's ability to execute.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the recent history of earnings misses, investors will closely watch EPS to gauge whether the company is on a recovery path.

What guidance will management provide for revenue growth moving forward?

Future revenue guidance will be critical for assessing the company's growth prospects and overall health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the potential for cost-cutting measures to significantly improve margins this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Recent management comments hinted at aggressive cost management strategies.

The options market suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

Historically, the company has rebounded after periods of underperformance, suggesting a possible turnaround.

Key Risk

If EPS exceeds $0.25, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift investor expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether International Paper can stabilize its earnings and return to growth after a series of disappointing results.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.25 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate a recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.10 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in the business.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.7%

Historical Avg

±7.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±15.7% while IP has averaged ±7.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

53.0%

Calls (76K)P/C Ratio: 7.92Puts (109K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If the company beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.15%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the market.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 9.00%, as investors may react negatively to continued underperformance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on cost-cutting initiatives and their expected impact on margins.
2Updates on new market opportunities and product innovations.
3Any commentary on supply chain improvements and their effect on operations.
4Guidance on revenue expectations for the next quarter.
5Insights into sustainability efforts and how they are being integrated into the business strategy.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company managed costs and revenues during the quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales, which is vital for maintaining market position and investor confidence.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

IP Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

+170.10%

Avg Stock Reaction

-4.07%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, International Paper reported an EPS of $0.15, falling short of expectations by nearly 15%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping over 9% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management indicated a focus on cost-cutting measures.
They committed to exploring new markets for packaging solutions.
There was a promise to enhance sustainability efforts in product offerings.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic but wary after several earnings misses in previous quarters. The market is looking for signs of recovery in profitability and revenue.

Bull Case

If the company can show improved margins and revenue growth, it may signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued earnings misses or weak guidance could lead to further declines in stock price, as investors may lose faith in management's ability to execute.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the recent history of earnings misses, investors will closely watch EPS to gauge whether the company is on a recovery path.

What guidance will management provide for revenue growth moving forward?

Future revenue guidance will be critical for assessing the company's growth prospects and overall health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the potential for cost-cutting measures to significantly improve margins this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Recent management comments hinted at aggressive cost management strategies.

The options market suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

Historically, the company has rebounded after periods of underperformance, suggesting a possible turnaround.

Key Risk

If EPS exceeds $0.25, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift investor expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether International Paper can stabilize its earnings and return to growth after a series of disappointing results.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.25 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate a recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.10 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in the business.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.7%

Historical Avg

±7.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±15.7% while IP has averaged ±7.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

53.0%

Calls (76K)P/C Ratio: 7.92Puts (109K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If the company beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.15%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the market.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 9.00%, as investors may react negatively to continued underperformance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on cost-cutting initiatives and their expected impact on margins.
2Updates on new market opportunities and product innovations.
3Any commentary on supply chain improvements and their effect on operations.
4Guidance on revenue expectations for the next quarter.
5Insights into sustainability efforts and how they are being integrated into the business strategy.