Equity Profile

LRCX

Lam Research Corporation

Information TechnologySemiconductor Materials & Equipment$379.3B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) is a leading supplier of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, crucial for producing chips used in various technologies. As the demand for semiconductors continues to rise, driven by trends like AI and cloud computing, Lam's performance is closely watched by investors.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Lam has managed costs and revenue.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to capture market demand in the semiconductor sector.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

LRCX Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+127.28%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.79%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Lam Research reported an EPS of $1.47, exceeding expectations by 8.17%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.78% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are anticipating strong results from Lam Research, given its consistent performance in previous quarters. However, uncertainty remains due to the lack of detailed guidance.

Bull Case

If Lam continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal robust demand for its semiconductor equipment, potentially leading to further stock price appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, any signs of slowing demand or increased costs could lead to disappointing results, which might negatively impact investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS figure for Q4-2026?

Given Lam's history of beating EPS estimates, this figure will be crucial in determining market sentiment.

How is Lam addressing potential supply chain challenges?

Supply chain issues could impact production and revenue, making this a key focus for investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of new product launches on Lam's revenue growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Lam has a strong track record of exceeding EPS estimates, which could continue this quarter.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors are expecting volatility.

The semiconductor market is experiencing robust demand, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If Lam's revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on Lam's ability to maintain profitability amid market challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.50 or higher would confirm strong demand and cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.30 could indicate weakening demand or rising costs.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±11.71%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±11.7% while LRCX has averaged ±2.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

52.1%

Calls (702K)P/C Ratio: 1.90Puts (2.0M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Semiconductors

n=30

Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 4 of 9 faded and 5 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Lam beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.79%, confirming strong demand.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

If Lam misses expectations, the stock could drop, with historical patterns indicating a potential decline of around 2.61%.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

3 buys·4 sells

Members

House + Senate

Est. Notional

$84,007.00–$260,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OHDavid J. TaylorRep.
4

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on new product launches and their expected impact on revenue.
2Any updates on supply chain management and cost controls.
3Guidance on future demand trends in the semiconductor industry.
4Insights into competitive positioning against peers.
5Management's outlook on macroeconomic factors affecting the business.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Lam has managed costs and revenue.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to capture market demand in the semiconductor sector.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

LRCX Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+127.28%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.79%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Lam Research reported an EPS of $1.47, exceeding expectations by 8.17%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.78% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are anticipating strong results from Lam Research, given its consistent performance in previous quarters. However, uncertainty remains due to the lack of detailed guidance.

Bull Case

If Lam continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal robust demand for its semiconductor equipment, potentially leading to further stock price appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, any signs of slowing demand or increased costs could lead to disappointing results, which might negatively impact investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS figure for Q4-2026?

Given Lam's history of beating EPS estimates, this figure will be crucial in determining market sentiment.

How is Lam addressing potential supply chain challenges?

Supply chain issues could impact production and revenue, making this a key focus for investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of new product launches on Lam's revenue growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Lam has a strong track record of exceeding EPS estimates, which could continue this quarter.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors are expecting volatility.

The semiconductor market is experiencing robust demand, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If Lam's revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on Lam's ability to maintain profitability amid market challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.50 or higher would confirm strong demand and cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.30 could indicate weakening demand or rising costs.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±11.71%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±11.7% while LRCX has averaged ±2.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

52.1%

Calls (702K)P/C Ratio: 1.90Puts (2.0M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Semiconductors

n=30

Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Lam beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.79%, confirming strong demand.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

If Lam misses expectations, the stock could drop, with historical patterns indicating a potential decline of around 2.61%.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

3 buys·4 sells

Members

House + Senate

Est. Notional

$84,007.00–$260,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OHDavid J. TaylorRep.
4

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on new product launches and their expected impact on revenue.
2Any updates on supply chain management and cost controls.
3Guidance on future demand trends in the semiconductor industry.
4Insights into competitive positioning against peers.
5Management's outlook on macroeconomic factors affecting the business.