Equity Profile

M

Macy's, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryBroadline Retail$5.8B

Jun3Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Macy's, Inc. is a major retail company operating in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily selling clothing, accessories, and home goods....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Macy's managed costs and sales during the quarter.

$0.03

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and consumer demand, which is crucial for evaluating Macy's market position.

$4.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

M Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Macy's, Inc. is a major retail company operating in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily selling clothing, accessories, and home goods. With a market cap of $6 billion, Macy's plays a significant role in the retail landscape, especially as consumer spending trends evolve post-pandemic.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+40.28%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.84%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Macy's reported an EPS of $1.67, exceeding expectations by 9.36%. The stock reacted positively, rising 4.73% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving online sales channels.
Commitment to enhancing customer experience in stores.
Plans to manage inventory levels more effectively.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect a modest EPS of $0.03 and stable revenue of $4.6 billion for Q1-2026. The market is cautiously optimistic following recent earnings surprises.

Bull Case

If Macy's can leverage its online sales growth and manage costs effectively, it could exceed EPS expectations, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if consumer spending declines or inventory issues arise, Macy's may miss revenue targets, negatively impacting investor sentiment.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.03

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Macy's managed costs and sales during the quarter.

Revenue

$4.6B

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and consumer demand, which is crucial for evaluating Macy's market position.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Macy's achieve an EPS of at least $0.03?

This figure is crucial for assessing profitability and could influence market sentiment significantly.

How will revenue compare to the expected $4.6 billion?

Revenue performance will indicate consumer demand and the effectiveness of Macy's sales strategies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Macy's ability to capitalize on its online sales growth, which could lead to better-than-expected revenue figures.

Supporting Evidence

Macy's has shown a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with an 88% success rate in the last eight quarters.

Recent consumer spending trends suggest a potential rebound in retail sales, which could favor Macy's.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

Key Risk

If online sales growth outpaces expectations, it could significantly alter the revenue outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Macy's can maintain its recent positive earnings surprises amid changing consumer behaviors.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS above $0.03 and revenue exceeding $4.6 billion would confirm a strong recovery and positive market sentiment.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.03 or revenue falling short of $4.6 billion would signal ongoing challenges in consumer spending.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.81%

Historical Avg

±5.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±9.8% while M has averaged ±5.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.0%

30d HV

40.5%

Calls (606K)P/C Ratio: 1.06Puts (246K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Macy's beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.22%, confirming a bullish outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in the retail sector.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.84%, indicating investor disappointment and potential concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on online sales growth and strategies to enhance digital presence.
2Any commentary on inventory management and supply chain improvements.
3Insights into consumer spending trends and how they are affecting sales.
4Management's outlook on the retail environment for the remainder of the year.
5Details on any new initiatives aimed at improving customer experience.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Macy's, Inc. is a major retail company operating in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily selling clothing, accessories, and home goods....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Macy's managed costs and sales during the quarter.

$0.03

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and consumer demand, which is crucial for evaluating Macy's market position.

$4.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

M Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+40.28%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.84%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Macy's reported an EPS of $1.67, exceeding expectations by 9.36%. The stock reacted positively, rising 4.73% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving online sales channels.
Commitment to enhancing customer experience in stores.
Plans to manage inventory levels more effectively.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect a modest EPS of $0.03 and stable revenue of $4.6 billion for Q1-2026. The market is cautiously optimistic following recent earnings surprises.

Bull Case

If Macy's can leverage its online sales growth and manage costs effectively, it could exceed EPS expectations, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if consumer spending declines or inventory issues arise, Macy's may miss revenue targets, negatively impacting investor sentiment.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.03

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Macy's managed costs and sales during the quarter.

Revenue

$4.6B

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and consumer demand, which is crucial for evaluating Macy's market position.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Macy's achieve an EPS of at least $0.03?

This figure is crucial for assessing profitability and could influence market sentiment significantly.

How will revenue compare to the expected $4.6 billion?

Revenue performance will indicate consumer demand and the effectiveness of Macy's sales strategies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Macy's ability to capitalize on its online sales growth, which could lead to better-than-expected revenue figures.

Supporting Evidence

Macy's has shown a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with an 88% success rate in the last eight quarters.

Recent consumer spending trends suggest a potential rebound in retail sales, which could favor Macy's.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

Key Risk

If online sales growth outpaces expectations, it could significantly alter the revenue outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Macy's can maintain its recent positive earnings surprises amid changing consumer behaviors.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS above $0.03 and revenue exceeding $4.6 billion would confirm a strong recovery and positive market sentiment.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.03 or revenue falling short of $4.6 billion would signal ongoing challenges in consumer spending.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.81%

Historical Avg

±5.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±9.8% while M has averaged ±5.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.0%

30d HV

40.5%

Calls (606K)P/C Ratio: 1.06Puts (246K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Macy's beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.22%, confirming a bullish outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in the retail sector.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.84%, indicating investor disappointment and potential concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on online sales growth and strategies to enhance digital presence.
2Any commentary on inventory management and supply chain improvements.
3Insights into consumer spending trends and how they are affecting sales.
4Management's outlook on the retail environment for the remainder of the year.
5Details on any new initiatives aimed at improving customer experience.