Equity Profile

MAT

Mattel, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryLeisure Products$4.1B

Jul22Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Mattel, Inc. (MAT) is a leading toy manufacturer known for its iconic brands like Barbie and Hot Wheels....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of profitability and will show how well Mattel is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate demand for Mattel's products, especially in a competitive toy market.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MAT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Mattel, Inc. (MAT) is a leading toy manufacturer known for its iconic brands like Barbie and Hot Wheels. Operating in the Consumer Discretionary sector, the company is influenced by trends in consumer spending and entertainment, making it a key player in the leisure products industry.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+17.77%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.82%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Mattel reported an EPS of -$0.20, which was better than the expected -$0.24, indicating some resilience in their operations. However, revenue details were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts are cautious about Mattel's upcoming earnings, given the mixed results from previous quarters. Investors will be looking for signs of recovery in revenue and profitability.

Bull Case

If Mattel can show strong demand for its key brands and improve profitability, it could signal a turnaround and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company continues to struggle with profitability and revenue growth, it may face further declines in stock value.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a key measure of profitability, and a significant improvement or decline could greatly influence investor sentiment.

How is Mattel addressing current market trends in consumer preferences?

Understanding how the company adapts to changing consumer tastes will be crucial for assessing future growth potential.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in Mattel's sales driven by new product launches and a resurgence in consumer interest in classic toys.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 15.15% move, indicating expectations for significant volatility that may not align with historical performance.

Mattel's strong brand recognition could lead to better-than-expected sales, especially during peak shopping seasons.

Key Risk

If EPS exceeds $0.10, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment and lead to a re-evaluation of growth prospects.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus will be on whether Mattel can improve its earnings and adapt to market trends.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS of $0.10 or better would confirm the bull case and indicate strong demand for Mattel's products.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS of -$0.30 or worse would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing struggles with profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.15%

Historical Avg

±2.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±15.1% while MAT has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

22.7%

Calls (37K)P/C Ratio: 0.11Puts (4K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Mattel beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.5% to 2%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 0.1% to 0.5%, reflecting continued concerns over profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Insights into consumer trends and how Mattel is adapting its product offerings.
3Management's outlook on profitability and cost management strategies.
4Details on international sales performance and market expansion efforts.
5Any commentary on supply chain challenges and their impact on production.

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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Mattel, Inc. (MAT) is a leading toy manufacturer known for its iconic brands like Barbie and Hot Wheels....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of profitability and will show how well Mattel is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate demand for Mattel's products, especially in a competitive toy market.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MAT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+17.77%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.82%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts are cautious about Mattel's upcoming earnings, given the mixed results from previous quarters. Investors will be looking for signs of recovery in revenue and profitability.

Bull Case

If Mattel can show strong demand for its key brands and improve profitability, it could signal a turnaround and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company continues to struggle with profitability and revenue growth, it may face further declines in stock value.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a key measure of profitability, and a significant improvement or decline could greatly influence investor sentiment.

How is Mattel addressing current market trends in consumer preferences?

Understanding how the company adapts to changing consumer tastes will be crucial for assessing future growth potential.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in Mattel's sales driven by new product launches and a resurgence in consumer interest in classic toys.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 15.15% move, indicating expectations for significant volatility that may not align with historical performance.

Mattel's strong brand recognition could lead to better-than-expected sales, especially during peak shopping seasons.

Key Risk

If EPS exceeds $0.10, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment and lead to a re-evaluation of growth prospects.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus will be on whether Mattel can improve its earnings and adapt to market trends.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS of $0.10 or better would confirm the bull case and indicate strong demand for Mattel's products.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS of -$0.30 or worse would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing struggles with profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.15%

Historical Avg

±2.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±15.1% while MAT has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

22.7%

Calls (37K)P/C Ratio: 0.11Puts (4K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Mattel beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.5% to 2%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 0.1% to 0.5%, reflecting continued concerns over profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Insights into consumer trends and how Mattel is adapting its product offerings.
3Management's outlook on profitability and cost management strategies.
4Details on international sales performance and market expansion efforts.
5Any commentary on supply chain challenges and their impact on production.