Equity Profile

MAT

Mattel, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryLeisure Products$4.0B

Jul22Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Mattel, Inc. (MAT) is a leading toy manufacturer known for iconic brands like Barbie and Hot Wheels....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Mattel is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects demand for Mattel's products and can indicate the company's market position and brand strength.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MAT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Mattel, Inc. (MAT) is a leading toy manufacturer known for iconic brands like Barbie and Hot Wheels. As a player in the consumer discretionary sector, its performance is closely tied to consumer spending trends and the overall health of the retail market.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+17.77%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.82%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Mattel reported an EPS of -$0.20, which was better than the expected -$0.24, showing a positive surprise. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of Mattel's earnings report, especially given the company's history of beating EPS estimates. However, concerns about consumer spending may weigh on expectations.

Bull Case

If Mattel can demonstrate strong brand performance and effective cost management, it could see significant revenue growth, especially with new product launches.

Bear Case

On the flip side, if consumer spending continues to decline, Mattel may struggle to maintain sales, leading to disappointing earnings and potential stock declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the EPS for Q2-2026?

The EPS will be crucial in assessing Mattel's profitability and ability to manage costs amid changing consumer preferences.

How does Mattel plan to address potential declines in consumer spending?

Understanding the company's strategy in a challenging retail environment will be key to gauging future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Mattel's ability to innovate and capture market share, especially with new product lines that could resonate with consumers.

Supporting Evidence

Mattel has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% beat rate in recent quarters.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that traders expect a notable shift in sentiment.

Consumer trends may favor nostalgic and classic brands, which could benefit Mattel's established product lines.

Key Risk

If consumer spending rebounds unexpectedly, it could significantly boost Mattel's sales and earnings.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Mattel can sustain its brand strength and profitability in a potentially declining consumer spending environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.10 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below -$0.30 would indicate significant challenges in profitability and consumer demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.15%

Historical Avg

±2.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±15.1% while MAT has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

22.7%

Calls (37K)P/C Ratio: 0.11Puts (4K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Mattel beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 2.4% on the day, confirming positive momentum.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

Should Mattel miss earnings expectations, history indicates a potential decline of about 0.11%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Insights into consumer trends and how they are affecting Mattel's brand performance.
3Management's outlook on the retail environment and consumer spending.
4Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
5Any commentary on international sales performance and growth opportunities.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Mattel, Inc. (MAT) is a leading toy manufacturer known for iconic brands like Barbie and Hot Wheels....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Mattel is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects demand for Mattel's products and can indicate the company's market position and brand strength.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MAT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+17.77%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.82%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Mattel can demonstrate strong brand performance and effective cost management, it could see significant revenue growth, especially with new product launches.

Bear Case

On the flip side, if consumer spending continues to decline, Mattel may struggle to maintain sales, leading to disappointing earnings and potential stock declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the EPS for Q2-2026?

The EPS will be crucial in assessing Mattel's profitability and ability to manage costs amid changing consumer preferences.

How does Mattel plan to address potential declines in consumer spending?

Understanding the company's strategy in a challenging retail environment will be key to gauging future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Mattel's ability to innovate and capture market share, especially with new product lines that could resonate with consumers.

Supporting Evidence

Mattel has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% beat rate in recent quarters.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that traders expect a notable shift in sentiment.

Consumer trends may favor nostalgic and classic brands, which could benefit Mattel's established product lines.

Key Risk

If consumer spending rebounds unexpectedly, it could significantly boost Mattel's sales and earnings.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Mattel can sustain its brand strength and profitability in a potentially declining consumer spending environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.10 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below -$0.30 would indicate significant challenges in profitability and consumer demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.15%

Historical Avg

±2.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±15.1% while MAT has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

22.7%

Calls (37K)P/C Ratio: 0.11Puts (4K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Mattel beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 2.4% on the day, confirming positive momentum.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

Should Mattel miss earnings expectations, history indicates a potential decline of about 0.11%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Insights into consumer trends and how they are affecting Mattel's brand performance.
3Management's outlook on the retail environment and consumer spending.
4Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
5Any commentary on international sales performance and growth opportunities.