Equity Profile

MAT

Mattel, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryLeisure Products$4.3B

Jul22Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Mattel, Inc. (MAT) is a leading toy manufacturer known for its iconic brands like Barbie and Hot Wheels....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and investor sentiment. This quarter, analysts expect a modest profit, which could signal recovery.

$0.04

Revenue

Revenue reflects the company's sales performance. A strong revenue figure could indicate successful product launches or improved consumer demand.

$1.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MAT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Mattel, Inc. (MAT) is a leading toy manufacturer known for its iconic brands like Barbie and Hot Wheels. As a player in the consumer discretionary sector, its performance is closely tied to consumer spending trends and the overall health of the retail market.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+17.77%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.82%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Mattel reported an EPS of -$0.20, which was better than the expected -$0.24, surprising analysts positively. However, revenue details were not disclosed.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding the Barbie brand with new product lines.
Commitment to improving supply chain efficiencies.
Plans to enhance digital engagement with consumers.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Mattel's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a slight profit and stable revenue. The market is watching closely for signs of recovery in consumer spending.

Bull Case

If Mattel can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could indicate a successful turnaround and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses on earnings and revenue, it could signal ongoing struggles in the toy market, leading to a negative reaction from investors.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.04

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and investor sentiment. This quarter, analysts expect a modest profit, which could signal recovery.

Revenue

$1.1B

Revenue reflects the company's sales performance. A strong revenue figure could indicate successful product launches or improved consumer demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Mattel's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.04?

A positive EPS surprise could indicate a stronger-than-expected recovery and boost investor sentiment.

What are the revenue figures for this quarter, and how do they compare to expectations?

Revenue performance will be crucial in assessing the company's market position and consumer demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the impact of new product launches, particularly in the Barbie line, which could drive unexpected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

Last quarter's EPS surprise indicates potential for better-than-expected performance.

The strong focus on digital engagement may attract more consumers than anticipated.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating market uncertainty that could favor a positive surprise.

Key Risk

If Barbie sales significantly outperform expectations, it could challenge the current consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Mattel can sustain profitability and growth in a challenging retail environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.09 or higher, along with revenue exceeding $1.1B, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.01 and revenue falling short of $1.1B would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.15%

Historical Avg

±2.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±15.1% while MAT has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

22.7%

Calls (37K)P/C Ratio: 0.11Puts (4K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Mattel beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.25%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If the company misses on EPS and revenue, the stock could drop by around 0.11%, reflecting disappointment in performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on Barbie sales performance and how it compares to last year.
2Any commentary on supply chain improvements and their impact on costs.
3Insights into consumer trends and how they are affecting product demand.
4Details on new product launches and marketing strategies.
5Management's outlook on the overall toy market for the remainder of the year.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Mattel, Inc. (MAT) is a leading toy manufacturer known for its iconic brands like Barbie and Hot Wheels....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and investor sentiment. This quarter, analysts expect a modest profit, which could signal recovery.

$0.04

Revenue

Revenue reflects the company's sales performance. A strong revenue figure could indicate successful product launches or improved consumer demand.

$1.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MAT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+17.77%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.82%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Mattel reported an EPS of -$0.20, which was better than the expected -$0.24, surprising analysts positively. However, revenue details were not disclosed.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding the Barbie brand with new product lines.
Commitment to improving supply chain efficiencies.
Plans to enhance digital engagement with consumers.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Mattel can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could indicate a successful turnaround and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses on earnings and revenue, it could signal ongoing struggles in the toy market, leading to a negative reaction from investors.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.04

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and investor sentiment. This quarter, analysts expect a modest profit, which could signal recovery.

Revenue

$1.1B

Revenue reflects the company's sales performance. A strong revenue figure could indicate successful product launches or improved consumer demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Mattel's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.04?

A positive EPS surprise could indicate a stronger-than-expected recovery and boost investor sentiment.

What are the revenue figures for this quarter, and how do they compare to expectations?

Revenue performance will be crucial in assessing the company's market position and consumer demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the impact of new product launches, particularly in the Barbie line, which could drive unexpected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

Last quarter's EPS surprise indicates potential for better-than-expected performance.

The strong focus on digital engagement may attract more consumers than anticipated.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating market uncertainty that could favor a positive surprise.

Key Risk

If Barbie sales significantly outperform expectations, it could challenge the current consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Mattel can sustain profitability and growth in a challenging retail environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.09 or higher, along with revenue exceeding $1.1B, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.01 and revenue falling short of $1.1B would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.15%

Historical Avg

±2.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±15.1% while MAT has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

22.7%

Calls (37K)P/C Ratio: 0.11Puts (4K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Mattel beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.25%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If the company misses on EPS and revenue, the stock could drop by around 0.11%, reflecting disappointment in performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on Barbie sales performance and how it compares to last year.
2Any commentary on supply chain improvements and their impact on costs.
3Insights into consumer trends and how they are affecting product demand.
4Details on new product launches and marketing strategies.
5Management's outlook on the overall toy market for the remainder of the year.