Equity Profile

MCO

Moody's Corporation

FinancialsFinancial Exchanges & Data$84.6B

Jul23Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge how well the company is performing relative to expectations.

$4.24

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and growth trajectory.

$2.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MCO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Moody's Corporation (MCO) is a leading provider of credit ratings, research, and risk analysis. As part of the financial sector, it plays a crucial role in assessing the creditworthiness of borrowers, which is essential for investors and businesses alike. With a market cap of $85 billion, Moody's is influential in the financial exchanges and data industry, especially as economic conditions fluctuate.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.60%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.51%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Moody's reported an EPS of $4.33, slightly exceeding the estimate of $4.25. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.55% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continue to enhance credit rating services.
Focus on expanding data analytics offerings.
Commit to maintaining strong profit margins.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Moody's to deliver solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $4.24. Investors are keen to see if the company can maintain its strong performance amid economic uncertainties.

Bull Case

If Moody's beats earnings expectations, it could signal robust demand for its services, potentially leading to a positive re-rating of the stock.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses estimates, it may raise concerns about slowing growth or increased competition in the financial data sector.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$4.24

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge how well the company is performing relative to expectations.

Revenue

$2.1B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and growth trajectory.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $4.24?

A beat on EPS would reinforce investor confidence in Moody's ability to generate consistent profits, especially in a challenging economic environment.

What guidance will management provide regarding revenue growth?

Clear guidance on revenue growth will help investors assess the company's future prospects and its ability to navigate market fluctuations.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Moody's to exceed EPS expectations due to strong demand for credit ratings amid economic uncertainty.

Supporting Evidence

Moody's has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, suggesting a trend of strong performance.

The options market is pricing a smaller move than historical averages, indicating a potential mispricing of volatility.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds $2.1B, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is currently weighing the potential for continued growth against the backdrop of economic uncertainties, making this quarter's results particularly critical.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $4.30 or higher would confirm strong demand for Moody's services and support a bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $4.10 would raise concerns about slowing growth and could lead to a bearish sentiment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±2.0%

Historical Avg

±3.1%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing a modest move in either direction, suggesting uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±2.0% while MCO has averaged ±3.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

23.5%

Calls (13K)P/C Ratio: 0.87Puts (17K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 25 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Moody's beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 2.08%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance from management.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of around 2.50%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about growth.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product offerings in credit ratings and analytics.
2Management's commentary on market demand for credit ratings.
3Insights into cost management and margin stability.
4Guidance on future revenue growth expectations.
5Responses to any macroeconomic challenges affecting the business.

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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge how well the company is performing relative to expectations.

$4.24

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and growth trajectory.

$2.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MCO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.60%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.51%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Moody's reported an EPS of $4.33, slightly exceeding the estimate of $4.25. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.55% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continue to enhance credit rating services.
Focus on expanding data analytics offerings.
Commit to maintaining strong profit margins.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Moody's beats earnings expectations, it could signal robust demand for its services, potentially leading to a positive re-rating of the stock.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses estimates, it may raise concerns about slowing growth or increased competition in the financial data sector.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$4.24

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge how well the company is performing relative to expectations.

Revenue

$2.1B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and growth trajectory.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $4.24?

A beat on EPS would reinforce investor confidence in Moody's ability to generate consistent profits, especially in a challenging economic environment.

What guidance will management provide regarding revenue growth?

Clear guidance on revenue growth will help investors assess the company's future prospects and its ability to navigate market fluctuations.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Moody's to exceed EPS expectations due to strong demand for credit ratings amid economic uncertainty.

Supporting Evidence

Moody's has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, suggesting a trend of strong performance.

The options market is pricing a smaller move than historical averages, indicating a potential mispricing of volatility.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds $2.1B, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is currently weighing the potential for continued growth against the backdrop of economic uncertainties, making this quarter's results particularly critical.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $4.30 or higher would confirm strong demand for Moody's services and support a bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $4.10 would raise concerns about slowing growth and could lead to a bearish sentiment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±2.0%

Historical Avg

±3.1%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing a modest move in either direction, suggesting uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±2.0% while MCO has averaged ±3.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

23.5%

Calls (13K)P/C Ratio: 0.87Puts (17K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Moody's beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 2.08%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance from management.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of around 2.50%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about growth.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product offerings in credit ratings and analytics.
2Management's commentary on market demand for credit ratings.
3Insights into cost management and margin stability.
4Guidance on future revenue growth expectations.
5Responses to any macroeconomic challenges affecting the business.