Equity Profile

MDT

Medtronic plc

Health CareHealth Care Equipment$115.9B

Jun3Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Medtronic plc (MDT) is a leading global healthcare technology company that develops and manufactures medical devices and therapies. With a focus on improving patient outcomes, Medtronic operates in various segments, including cardiac and vascular, minimally invasive surgical, and restorative therapies, making it a significant player in the healthcare equipment sector.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$1.55

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$9.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MDT Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+1.42%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.31%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3 2026, Medtronic reported an EPS of $1.36, slightly exceeding expectations. However, the stock fell by 3.10% the next day, indicating market concerns despite the positive surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on innovation in product development.
Commitment to improving operational efficiency.
Plans to expand into emerging markets.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Medtronic to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $1.55 and revenue of $9.6 billion. The market is looking for signs of growth in key segments.

Bull Case

If Medtronic beats EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its products, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about its growth trajectory, leading to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$1.55

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue

$9.6B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed $1.55, and what factors contributed to the result?

The EPS figure is crucial for assessing profitability and could influence investor sentiment significantly.

What is the outlook for revenue growth in key segments?

Understanding revenue growth will provide insights into market demand and the company's competitive position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Medtronic's potential for revenue growth in emerging markets, which could significantly boost overall performance this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Analysts are focusing on North American sales, but Medtronic's expansion efforts in Asia could yield unexpected results.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for surprise.

Recent product launches may not be fully reflected in current estimates, leading to upside potential.

Key Risk

If revenue from emerging markets exceeds $2B, it could challenge current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating Medtronic's ability to maintain growth amidst competitive pressures and changing healthcare dynamics.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.60 or higher, coupled with strong revenue growth, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.52 or weak revenue guidance would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.32%

Historical Avg

±3.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting uncertainty about the results.

Options price a 5.3% move but the stock has averaged only 3.6% over the last 8 quarters — setup is rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

25.1%

Calls (1.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.55Puts (351K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.9% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Medtronic beats expectations, history suggests a potential average move of +2.19% on the first day, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, management's commentary will be critical in driving the stock's movement, likely resulting in muted reactions.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of around -3.14% based on historical patterns, raising concerns about the company's growth trajectory.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$15,001.00–$50,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OKKevin HernRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on product launches and their market reception.
2Insights into operational efficiency improvements.
3Details on expansion strategies in emerging markets.
4Any commentary on competitive pressures and market share.
5Guidance on future revenue growth expectations.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$1.55

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$9.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MDT Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+1.42%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.31%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3 2026, Medtronic reported an EPS of $1.36, slightly exceeding expectations. However, the stock fell by 3.10% the next day, indicating market concerns despite the positive surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on innovation in product development.
Commitment to improving operational efficiency.
Plans to expand into emerging markets.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Medtronic to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $1.55 and revenue of $9.6 billion. The market is looking for signs of growth in key segments.

Bull Case

If Medtronic beats EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its products, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about its growth trajectory, leading to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$1.55

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue

$9.6B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed $1.55, and what factors contributed to the result?

The EPS figure is crucial for assessing profitability and could influence investor sentiment significantly.

What is the outlook for revenue growth in key segments?

Understanding revenue growth will provide insights into market demand and the company's competitive position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Medtronic's potential for revenue growth in emerging markets, which could significantly boost overall performance this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Analysts are focusing on North American sales, but Medtronic's expansion efforts in Asia could yield unexpected results.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for surprise.

Recent product launches may not be fully reflected in current estimates, leading to upside potential.

Key Risk

If revenue from emerging markets exceeds $2B, it could challenge current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating Medtronic's ability to maintain growth amidst competitive pressures and changing healthcare dynamics.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.60 or higher, coupled with strong revenue growth, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.52 or weak revenue guidance would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.32%

Historical Avg

±3.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting uncertainty about the results.

Options price a 5.3% move but the stock has averaged only 3.6% over the last 8 quarters — setup is rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

25.1%

Calls (1.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.55Puts (351K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Medtronic beats expectations, history suggests a potential average move of +2.19% on the first day, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, management's commentary will be critical in driving the stock's movement, likely resulting in muted reactions.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of around -3.14% based on historical patterns, raising concerns about the company's growth trajectory.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$15,001.00–$50,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OKKevin HernRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on product launches and their market reception.
2Insights into operational efficiency improvements.
3Details on expansion strategies in emerging markets.
4Any commentary on competitive pressures and market share.
5Guidance on future revenue growth expectations.