Equity Profile

MDT

Medtronic plc

Health CareHealth Care Equipment$104.9B

Jun3Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Medtronic plc is a global leader in medical technology, focused on developing innovative healthcare solutions. Operating in the Health Care Equipment sector, the company plays a crucial role in improving patient outcomes through advanced medical devices and therapies.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Medtronic is managing costs and generating income.

$1.55

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand for its medical devices.

$9.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MDT Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+1.42%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.31%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Medtronic reported an EPS of $1.36, beating expectations slightly. However, the stock reacted negatively the following day, indicating some investor caution.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Medtronic to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $1.55 and revenue of $9.6 billion. The market is closely watching for any signs of growth or challenges in their product lines.

Bull Case

If Medtronic exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its products, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about market competition and demand, leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.55

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Medtronic is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$9.6B

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand for its medical devices.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Medtronic's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.55?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger than expected profitability and boost investor confidence.

What revenue growth will Medtronic report, and how does it compare to the consensus of $9.6 billion?

Revenue performance is critical for assessing market demand and the company's ability to compete.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating the potential for Medtronic to exceed revenue expectations due to recent product launches that could drive sales higher than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

The company's recent product innovations have not been fully reflected in analyst models.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant surprises.

Past earnings reactions show that even slight beats have led to negative stock movements, suggesting market skepticism.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds $9.8 billion, it could invalidate the cautious outlook currently held by analysts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will heavily depend on Medtronic's ability to navigate competitive pressures and maintain revenue growth.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.60 or higher with revenue exceeding $9.8 billion would confirm strong demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.52 or revenue falling short of $9.2 billion would raise concerns about market share and growth prospects.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.32%

Historical Avg

±3.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that traders expect volatility.

Options price a 5.3% move but the stock has averaged only 3.6% over the last 8 quarters — setup is rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

25.1%

Calls (1.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.55Puts (351K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.9% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Medtronic beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 4.7% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction, as investors await further commentary on future growth.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about 3.1% based on historical patterns, raising concerns about the company's competitive position.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·2 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$16,002.00–$65,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OKKevin HernRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Management's commentary on competitive pressures in the medical device market.
3Insights into cost management strategies and their effect on margins.
4Guidance on future revenue growth expectations beyond this quarter.
5Any discussion on regulatory challenges or opportunities in key markets.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Medtronic is managing costs and generating income.

$1.55

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand for its medical devices.

$9.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MDT Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+1.42%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.31%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Medtronic reported an EPS of $1.36, beating expectations slightly. However, the stock reacted negatively the following day, indicating some investor caution.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Medtronic exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its products, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about market competition and demand, leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.55

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Medtronic is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$9.6B

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand for its medical devices.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Medtronic's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.55?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger than expected profitability and boost investor confidence.

What revenue growth will Medtronic report, and how does it compare to the consensus of $9.6 billion?

Revenue performance is critical for assessing market demand and the company's ability to compete.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating the potential for Medtronic to exceed revenue expectations due to recent product launches that could drive sales higher than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

The company's recent product innovations have not been fully reflected in analyst models.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant surprises.

Past earnings reactions show that even slight beats have led to negative stock movements, suggesting market skepticism.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds $9.8 billion, it could invalidate the cautious outlook currently held by analysts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will heavily depend on Medtronic's ability to navigate competitive pressures and maintain revenue growth.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.60 or higher with revenue exceeding $9.8 billion would confirm strong demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.52 or revenue falling short of $9.2 billion would raise concerns about market share and growth prospects.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.32%

Historical Avg

±3.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that traders expect volatility.

Options price a 5.3% move but the stock has averaged only 3.6% over the last 8 quarters — setup is rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

25.1%

Calls (1.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.55Puts (351K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Medtronic beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 4.7% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction, as investors await further commentary on future growth.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about 3.1% based on historical patterns, raising concerns about the company's competitive position.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·2 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$16,002.00–$65,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OKKevin HernRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Management's commentary on competitive pressures in the medical device market.
3Insights into cost management strategies and their effect on margins.
4Guidance on future revenue growth expectations beyond this quarter.
5Any discussion on regulatory challenges or opportunities in key markets.