Equity Profile

MH

McGraw Hill, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryEducation Services$2.3B

Jun11Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

McGraw Hill, Inc. is a leading provider of educational materials and services, primarily focused on the consumer discretionary sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and reflects the company's ability to generate profit for shareholders.

$0.17

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the overall sales performance and demand for McGraw Hill's educational products.

$440M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MH Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

McGraw Hill, Inc. is a leading provider of educational materials and services, primarily focused on the consumer discretionary sector. With a market cap of $2 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the education services industry, which is increasingly influenced by trends in digital learning and consumer spending on educational resources.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 3Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

67%

Avg EPS Surprise

+264.49%

Avg Stock Reaction

+4.35%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, McGraw Hill reported an impressive EPS of $0.28, significantly exceeding expectations. However, the stock experienced a decline of 5.08% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the strong earnings.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about McGraw Hill's upcoming earnings, expecting a modest EPS of $0.17 and revenue of $440 million. The company's strong past performance has led to high expectations, but there are concerns about sustainability.

Bull Case

If McGraw Hill can replicate its previous earnings surprises, it may see a positive stock reaction, especially if it demonstrates strong growth in digital learning products.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet the consensus estimates or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant sell-off, especially given the recent stock performance.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.17

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and reflects the company's ability to generate profit for shareholders.

Revenue

$440M

Revenue figures provide insight into the overall sales performance and demand for McGraw Hill's educational products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will McGraw Hill's EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $0.17?

This metric is crucial for assessing the company's profitability and could significantly influence investor sentiment.

What specific growth trends are driving revenue, particularly in digital products?

Understanding the growth drivers will help investors gauge the company's future performance and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate McGraw Hill's ability to leverage its digital offerings, which could drive stronger-than-expected revenue growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the last three quarters, suggesting potential for another surprise.

Options pricing suggests a lower expected move compared to historical averages, indicating potential undervaluation of volatility.

The recent focus on digital education could lead to increased demand, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If revenue growth in digital products exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of McGraw Hill's future prospects.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether McGraw Hill can sustain its recent earnings momentum amid changing educational trends.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.20 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.10 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential challenges in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.86%

Historical Avg

±11.6%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a nearly 10% move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.9% while MH has averaged ±11.6% over the last 3 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

30d HV

49.5%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If McGraw Hill beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 9.42%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction as investors await further guidance, reflecting uncertainty in future growth.

Miss

A miss could result in a decline similar to the average 1-day move of -5.80% seen in previous quarters, indicating investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on digital product adoption rates and their impact on revenue.
2Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.
3Insights into competitive pressures in the education services sector.
4Future guidance on revenue expectations for the upcoming fiscal year.
5Details on any new product launches or strategic initiatives.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

McGraw Hill, Inc. is a leading provider of educational materials and services, primarily focused on the consumer discretionary sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and reflects the company's ability to generate profit for shareholders.

$0.17

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the overall sales performance and demand for McGraw Hill's educational products.

$440M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MH Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 3Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

67%

Avg EPS Surprise

+264.49%

Avg Stock Reaction

+4.35%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If McGraw Hill can replicate its previous earnings surprises, it may see a positive stock reaction, especially if it demonstrates strong growth in digital learning products.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet the consensus estimates or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant sell-off, especially given the recent stock performance.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.17

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and reflects the company's ability to generate profit for shareholders.

Revenue

$440M

Revenue figures provide insight into the overall sales performance and demand for McGraw Hill's educational products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will McGraw Hill's EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $0.17?

This metric is crucial for assessing the company's profitability and could significantly influence investor sentiment.

What specific growth trends are driving revenue, particularly in digital products?

Understanding the growth drivers will help investors gauge the company's future performance and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate McGraw Hill's ability to leverage its digital offerings, which could drive stronger-than-expected revenue growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the last three quarters, suggesting potential for another surprise.

Options pricing suggests a lower expected move compared to historical averages, indicating potential undervaluation of volatility.

The recent focus on digital education could lead to increased demand, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If revenue growth in digital products exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of McGraw Hill's future prospects.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether McGraw Hill can sustain its recent earnings momentum amid changing educational trends.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.20 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.10 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential challenges in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.86%

Historical Avg

±11.6%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a nearly 10% move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.9% while MH has averaged ±11.6% over the last 3 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

30d HV

49.5%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If McGraw Hill beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 9.42%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction as investors await further guidance, reflecting uncertainty in future growth.

Miss

A miss could result in a decline similar to the average 1-day move of -5.80% seen in previous quarters, indicating investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on digital product adoption rates and their impact on revenue.
2Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.
3Insights into competitive pressures in the education services sector.
4Future guidance on revenue expectations for the upcoming fiscal year.
5Details on any new product launches or strategic initiatives.