Equity Profile

MTG

MGIC Investment Corporation

FinancialsCommercial & Residential Mortgage Finance$6.0B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) operates in the financial sector, specifically focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance. The company plays a critical role in the housing market by providing mortgage insurance, which helps lenders manage risk and enables more people to buy homes.

Key Metrics to Watch

Mortgage Insurance Premiums

This metric indicates the revenue generated from insurance policies, which is crucial for assessing the company's core business performance.

N/A

Claims Paid

Monitoring claims paid helps investors understand the risk exposure and financial health of the company, especially in a fluctuating housing market.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MTG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+12.93%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.05%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, MGIC reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.76, beating expectations by 3.68%. The stock saw a modest increase of 0.52% the following day, reflecting a positive but cautious market reaction.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

With no analyst estimates available, the market is left to gauge expectations based on historical performance. MGIC has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, which may lead to optimism.

Bull Case

If MGIC continues its streak of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or reports higher claims, it could raise concerns about its risk management and lead to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the level of new insurance written this quarter?

This figure will indicate the demand for mortgage insurance and the company's growth potential in the current housing market.

How have claims paid changed compared to previous quarters?

An increase in claims could signal rising risks in the mortgage sector, impacting investor confidence and stock performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the impact of rising interest rates on new insurance written, which could lead to lower demand than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 15.76% move, indicating high volatility expectations that may not align with historical performance.

The average absolute 1-day move has been only 1.07%, suggesting that the current options pricing may be overly aggressive.

Key Risk

If new insurance written comes in below historical averages, it could challenge the optimistic outlook for MGIC.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The housing market's current dynamics and MGIC's ability to navigate them will be crucial in determining the company's performance this quarter.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant increase in new insurance written, exceeding historical averages, would confirm strong market demand.

Bear Confirmed If

A notable rise in claims paid compared to previous quarters could indicate increased risk exposure.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.76%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±15.8% while MTG has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

32.3%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 1.00Puts (500)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If MGIC beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming the company's strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting cautious optimism without strong momentum.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a potential decline in stock value, as seen in previous quarters.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the impact of interest rates on mortgage insurance demand.
2Details on the company's risk management strategies in light of recent market conditions.
3Insights into the competitive landscape and how MGIC is positioning itself.
4Information on any changes in claims trends compared to previous quarters.
5Management's outlook on the housing market for the remainder of the year.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Mortgage Insurance Premiums

This metric indicates the revenue generated from insurance policies, which is crucial for assessing the company's core business performance.

N/A

Claims Paid

Monitoring claims paid helps investors understand the risk exposure and financial health of the company, especially in a fluctuating housing market.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MTG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+12.93%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.05%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If MGIC continues its streak of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or reports higher claims, it could raise concerns about its risk management and lead to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the level of new insurance written this quarter?

This figure will indicate the demand for mortgage insurance and the company's growth potential in the current housing market.

How have claims paid changed compared to previous quarters?

An increase in claims could signal rising risks in the mortgage sector, impacting investor confidence and stock performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the impact of rising interest rates on new insurance written, which could lead to lower demand than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 15.76% move, indicating high volatility expectations that may not align with historical performance.

The average absolute 1-day move has been only 1.07%, suggesting that the current options pricing may be overly aggressive.

Key Risk

If new insurance written comes in below historical averages, it could challenge the optimistic outlook for MGIC.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The housing market's current dynamics and MGIC's ability to navigate them will be crucial in determining the company's performance this quarter.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant increase in new insurance written, exceeding historical averages, would confirm strong market demand.

Bear Confirmed If

A notable rise in claims paid compared to previous quarters could indicate increased risk exposure.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.76%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±15.8% while MTG has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

32.3%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 1.00Puts (500)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If MGIC beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming the company's strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting cautious optimism without strong momentum.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a potential decline in stock value, as seen in previous quarters.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the impact of interest rates on mortgage insurance demand.
2Details on the company's risk management strategies in light of recent market conditions.
3Insights into the competitive landscape and how MGIC is positioning itself.
4Information on any changes in claims trends compared to previous quarters.
5Management's outlook on the housing market for the remainder of the year.