Equity Profile

MTG

MGIC Investment Corporation

FinancialsCommercial & Residential Mortgage Finance$5.4B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) operates in the financial sector, focusing on mortgage insurance for both commercial and residential properties. As housing markets fluctuate, MGIC plays a crucial role in enabling homeownership by protecting lenders against defaults, making its performance important for understanding broader economic trends.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS Growth

Earnings per share growth is a key indicator of profitability and operational efficiency, which investors will closely monitor this quarter.

N/A

Mortgage Insurance Premiums

The level of premiums collected is vital for assessing revenue stability and growth potential in the mortgage insurance market.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MTG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+12.93%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.05%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, MGIC reported an EPS of $0.76, beating estimates by 3.68%. The stock saw a modest increase of 0.52% the following day, reflecting positive market sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about MGIC's upcoming earnings, particularly given its consistent history of beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of analyst estimates this quarter adds uncertainty.

Bull Case

If MGIC continues its trend of beating EPS expectations, it could signal strong operational performance and increased investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

On the other hand, any signs of increased claims or a slowdown in premium growth could raise concerns about profitability, leading to a negative reaction in the stock.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the expected claims paid this quarter?

This figure will help investors gauge the risk environment and the company's ability to manage losses, which is crucial for profitability.

How are mortgage insurance premiums trending?

Understanding premium growth is essential for assessing revenue stability and future growth potential in the mortgage insurance market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the impact of rising interest rates on mortgage insurance demand, which could boost premiums despite economic headwinds.

Supporting Evidence

MGIC's historical EPS surprises indicate consistent operational strength, suggesting it can outperform even in challenging environments.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential overreaction to negative sentiment.

Recent trends in home buying suggest a stable demand for mortgage insurance, which could support premium growth.

Key Risk

If claims paid come in lower than expected, it could significantly alter the market's perception of MGIC's risk management capabilities.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on the balance between premium growth and claims management, which will be closely scrutinized by investors.

Bull Confirmed If

If MGIC reports EPS growth above $0.80, it would confirm strong operational performance and potentially drive the stock higher.

Bear Confirmed If

Conversely, if claims paid exceed expectations significantly, it could indicate increased risk and lead to a negative market reaction.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.76%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±15.8% while MTG has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

32.3%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 1.00Puts (500)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If MGIC beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, averaging around a 1% move.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a mixed reaction, with the stock potentially remaining flat as investors digest management's commentary.

Miss

If MGIC misses expectations, the stock could decline, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of around 1%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on trends in mortgage insurance premiums and how they are expected to evolve.
2Details on claims paid and how they compare to historical averages.
3Management's outlook on the housing market and its potential impact on MGIC's business.
4Insights into operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
5Any commentary on regulatory changes affecting the mortgage insurance industry.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS Growth

Earnings per share growth is a key indicator of profitability and operational efficiency, which investors will closely monitor this quarter.

N/A

Mortgage Insurance Premiums

The level of premiums collected is vital for assessing revenue stability and growth potential in the mortgage insurance market.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MTG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+12.93%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.05%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, MGIC reported an EPS of $0.76, beating estimates by 3.68%. The stock saw a modest increase of 0.52% the following day, reflecting positive market sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If MGIC continues its trend of beating EPS expectations, it could signal strong operational performance and increased investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

On the other hand, any signs of increased claims or a slowdown in premium growth could raise concerns about profitability, leading to a negative reaction in the stock.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the expected claims paid this quarter?

This figure will help investors gauge the risk environment and the company's ability to manage losses, which is crucial for profitability.

How are mortgage insurance premiums trending?

Understanding premium growth is essential for assessing revenue stability and future growth potential in the mortgage insurance market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the impact of rising interest rates on mortgage insurance demand, which could boost premiums despite economic headwinds.

Supporting Evidence

MGIC's historical EPS surprises indicate consistent operational strength, suggesting it can outperform even in challenging environments.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential overreaction to negative sentiment.

Recent trends in home buying suggest a stable demand for mortgage insurance, which could support premium growth.

Key Risk

If claims paid come in lower than expected, it could significantly alter the market's perception of MGIC's risk management capabilities.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on the balance between premium growth and claims management, which will be closely scrutinized by investors.

Bull Confirmed If

If MGIC reports EPS growth above $0.80, it would confirm strong operational performance and potentially drive the stock higher.

Bear Confirmed If

Conversely, if claims paid exceed expectations significantly, it could indicate increased risk and lead to a negative market reaction.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.76%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±15.8% while MTG has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

32.3%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 1.00Puts (500)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If MGIC beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, averaging around a 1% move.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a mixed reaction, with the stock potentially remaining flat as investors digest management's commentary.

Miss

If MGIC misses expectations, the stock could decline, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of around 1%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on trends in mortgage insurance premiums and how they are expected to evolve.
2Details on claims paid and how they compare to historical averages.
3Management's outlook on the housing market and its potential impact on MGIC's business.
4Insights into operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
5Any commentary on regulatory changes affecting the mortgage insurance industry.