Equity Profile

MUSA

Murphy USA Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryAutomotive Retail$11.3B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Murphy USA Inc. operates in the automotive retail sector, primarily focusing on fuel and convenience store operations....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue growth is essential to assess the overall health of the business and its ability to attract and retain customers.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MUSA Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Murphy USA Inc. operates in the automotive retail sector, primarily focusing on fuel and convenience store operations. With a market cap of $10 billion, the company plays a significant role in consumer spending, particularly in the context of rising fuel prices and changing consumer habits.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+6.53%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.05%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Murphy USA reported an impressive EPS of $7.28, significantly beating estimates by over 52%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline of 1.11% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite strong earnings.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Murphy USA's upcoming earnings are uncertain, with no analyst estimates available. Investors will be keen to see if the company can maintain its strong earnings performance.

Bull Case

If Murphy USA continues to outperform expectations, particularly in fuel sales volume and profitability, it could lead to a positive market reaction and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet earnings expectations or reports declining fuel sales, it could trigger a negative response from investors, especially given the high implied volatility in the options market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

Given the strong EPS surprise last quarter, investors will closely watch if the company can sustain this performance or if it will revert to lower earnings.

How has fuel sales volume changed compared to last quarter?

Fuel sales volume is crucial for revenue; any significant changes could impact overall performance and investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may underestimate Murphy USA's ability to sustain high earnings due to the recent EPS surprise, which could indicate stronger operational efficiency than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

The company's historical EPS beat rate is 88%, suggesting a strong track record of exceeding expectations.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors are bracing for volatility, which could be mispriced relative to actual performance.

Recent fuel price trends may not be fully reflected in current market expectations, potentially leading to a positive surprise.

Key Risk

If fuel sales volume shows unexpected growth, it could significantly alter market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate centers around whether Murphy USA can maintain its strong earnings trajectory amidst fluctuating fuel prices and competition.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS above $7.50 would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $5.50 would confirm the bear case, suggesting a downturn in earnings.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.79%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move following the earnings report, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility.

Options are pricing ±19.8% while MUSA has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

51.4%

Calls (1K)P/C Ratio: 11.29Puts (700)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Murphy USA beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.98%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may remain flat or see a slight decline as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a potential drop of around 0.72%, leading to increased scrutiny on management's strategy.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on fuel pricing strategies and their impact on sales volume.
2Insights into operational efficiencies that could drive profitability.
3Management's outlook on consumer spending trends in the automotive retail sector.
4Details on competitive pressures and how the company plans to address them.
5Any commentary on future expansion plans or new store openings.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Murphy USA Inc. operates in the automotive retail sector, primarily focusing on fuel and convenience store operations....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue growth is essential to assess the overall health of the business and its ability to attract and retain customers.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MUSA Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+6.53%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.05%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Murphy USA's upcoming earnings are uncertain, with no analyst estimates available. Investors will be keen to see if the company can maintain its strong earnings performance.

Bull Case

If Murphy USA continues to outperform expectations, particularly in fuel sales volume and profitability, it could lead to a positive market reaction and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

Given the strong EPS surprise last quarter, investors will closely watch if the company can sustain this performance or if it will revert to lower earnings.

How has fuel sales volume changed compared to last quarter?

Fuel sales volume is crucial for revenue; any significant changes could impact overall performance and investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may underestimate Murphy USA's ability to sustain high earnings due to the recent EPS surprise, which could indicate stronger operational efficiency than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

The company's historical EPS beat rate is 88%, suggesting a strong track record of exceeding expectations.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors are bracing for volatility, which could be mispriced relative to actual performance.

Recent fuel price trends may not be fully reflected in current market expectations, potentially leading to a positive surprise.

Key Risk

If fuel sales volume shows unexpected growth, it could significantly alter market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate centers around whether Murphy USA can maintain its strong earnings trajectory amidst fluctuating fuel prices and competition.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS above $7.50 would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $5.50 would confirm the bear case, suggesting a downturn in earnings.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.79%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move following the earnings report, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility.

Options are pricing ±19.8% while MUSA has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

51.4%

Calls (1K)P/C Ratio: 11.29Puts (700)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Murphy USA beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.98%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may remain flat or see a slight decline as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a potential drop of around 0.72%, leading to increased scrutiny on management's strategy.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on fuel pricing strategies and their impact on sales volume.
2Insights into operational efficiencies that could drive profitability.
3Management's outlook on consumer spending trends in the automotive retail sector.
4Details on competitive pressures and how the company plans to address them.
5Any commentary on future expansion plans or new store openings.