Equity Profile

MUSA

Murphy USA Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryAutomotive Retail$10.4B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Murphy USA Inc. operates in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily focusing on automotive retail....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$9.86

Revenue

Revenue figures help gauge the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its services.

$6.0B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MUSA Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Murphy USA Inc. operates in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily focusing on automotive retail. The company is known for its network of gas stations and convenience stores, which are strategically located near Walmart stores, making it a significant player in the fuel retail market.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+6.53%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.05%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Murphy USA reported an EPS of $7.28, significantly exceeding expectations by 52%. However, revenue details were not disclosed, leading to a slight decline in stock price the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Murphy USA to continue its strong performance with solid earnings and revenue growth in the upcoming quarter. The consensus EPS estimate reflects confidence in the company's ability to generate profits.

Bull Case

If Murphy USA beats EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust consumer demand and effective cost management, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates or shows signs of declining revenue, it could raise concerns about market competition and consumer spending, negatively impacting the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$9.86

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue

$6.0B

Revenue figures help gauge the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $9.86?

A strong EPS performance could validate the company's profitability and growth strategy, influencing investor sentiment.

What revenue figures will the company report, and how do they compare to the $6.0B consensus?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing market demand and the company's operational effectiveness, impacting future growth expectations.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Murphy USA's ability to leverage its strategic locations and partnerships, leading to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

The company's recent EPS surprise of over 50% indicates strong operational efficiency.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, which may reflect investor uncertainty that could be resolved positively.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $6.6B, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift investor expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Murphy USA can sustain its recent earnings momentum amidst changing consumer behaviors and competitive pressures.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $10.32 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $8.67 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential weaknesses in the business.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.79%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction following the earnings report, indicating heightened investor uncertainty.

Options are pricing ±19.8% while MUSA has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

51.4%

Calls (1K)P/C Ratio: 11.29Puts (700)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

History suggests that if Murphy USA beats expectations, the stock could see an average one-day move of +0.72%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If the results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors assess management's commentary on future growth.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history indicates an average one-day move of +0.72%, which could lead to a negative sentiment around the stock.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on consumer traffic trends at Murphy USA locations.
2Insights into fuel price impacts on sales and margins.
3Management's outlook on competitive pressures in the automotive retail space.
4Details on any new partnerships or expansions planned for the upcoming quarters.
5Comments on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Murphy USA Inc. operates in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily focusing on automotive retail....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$9.86

Revenue

Revenue figures help gauge the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its services.

$6.0B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MUSA Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+6.53%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.05%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Murphy USA beats EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust consumer demand and effective cost management, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates or shows signs of declining revenue, it could raise concerns about market competition and consumer spending, negatively impacting the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$9.86

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue

$6.0B

Revenue figures help gauge the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $9.86?

A strong EPS performance could validate the company's profitability and growth strategy, influencing investor sentiment.

What revenue figures will the company report, and how do they compare to the $6.0B consensus?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing market demand and the company's operational effectiveness, impacting future growth expectations.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Murphy USA's ability to leverage its strategic locations and partnerships, leading to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

The company's recent EPS surprise of over 50% indicates strong operational efficiency.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, which may reflect investor uncertainty that could be resolved positively.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $6.6B, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift investor expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Murphy USA can sustain its recent earnings momentum amidst changing consumer behaviors and competitive pressures.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $10.32 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $8.67 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential weaknesses in the business.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.79%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction following the earnings report, indicating heightened investor uncertainty.

Options are pricing ±19.8% while MUSA has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

51.4%

Calls (1K)P/C Ratio: 11.29Puts (700)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

History suggests that if Murphy USA beats expectations, the stock could see an average one-day move of +0.72%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If the results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors assess management's commentary on future growth.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history indicates an average one-day move of +0.72%, which could lead to a negative sentiment around the stock.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on consumer traffic trends at Murphy USA locations.
2Insights into fuel price impacts on sales and margins.
3Management's outlook on competitive pressures in the automotive retail space.
4Details on any new partnerships or expansions planned for the upcoming quarters.
5Comments on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.