Equity Profile

NIC

Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.

FinancialsRegional Banks$3.0B

Jul14Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. is a regional bank that provides various financial services, including personal and commercial banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

Not available

Net Interest Margin

This metric shows the difference between interest income generated and interest paid out, reflecting the bank's profitability on loans.

Not available

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NIC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. is a regional bank that provides various financial services, including personal and commercial banking. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in serving local communities and businesses.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+7.12%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.16%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Nicolet Bankshares reported an EPS of $2.75, which was below the expected $2.98, resulting in a surprise of -7.72%. The stock reacted slightly negatively, declining by 0.58% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautious ahead of the earnings report, especially after the recent EPS miss. The market is looking for signs of recovery in profitability and growth.

Bull Case

If Nicolet can demonstrate strong loan growth and improved net interest margins, it could signal a rebound in profitability, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the bank reports continued weakness in earnings and loan growth, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate a challenging economic environment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected EPS for Q2-2026?

The EPS figure will be crucial in determining whether the company has improved its profitability and can meet or exceed market expectations.

How has loan growth performed in the last quarter?

Loan growth is a key indicator of the bank's health and ability to generate income; strong growth could signal a positive outlook.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for loan growth recovery, which could significantly boost earnings beyond current expectations.

Supporting Evidence

Nicolet has historically shown a strong ability to rebound after misses, with an 88% EPS beat rate in the past eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating that traders are anticipating significant volatility.

The bank's recent focus on expanding its loan portfolio may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision in earnings forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be pivotal in assessing Nicolet's ability to rebound from the recent earnings miss and maintain growth in a competitive environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.90 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.50 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the bank's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.65%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.6% while NIC has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

33.5%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 5.00Puts (200)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Nicolet beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.27%, confirming a positive turnaround in performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain flat as investors await further clarity on growth prospects.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a decline of about 0.58%, which could raise concerns about its future outlook.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth and demand trends in the current economic environment.
2Management's outlook on net interest margins and how they plan to manage costs.
3Details on any new initiatives or products that could drive future growth.
4Insights into customer behavior and how it may impact the bank's operations.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the regional banking sector.

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More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Fastenal Company

Company Snapshot

Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. is a regional bank that provides various financial services, including personal and commercial banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

Not available

Net Interest Margin

This metric shows the difference between interest income generated and interest paid out, reflecting the bank's profitability on loans.

Not available

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NIC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+7.12%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.16%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautious ahead of the earnings report, especially after the recent EPS miss. The market is looking for signs of recovery in profitability and growth.

Bull Case

If Nicolet can demonstrate strong loan growth and improved net interest margins, it could signal a rebound in profitability, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the bank reports continued weakness in earnings and loan growth, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate a challenging economic environment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected EPS for Q2-2026?

The EPS figure will be crucial in determining whether the company has improved its profitability and can meet or exceed market expectations.

How has loan growth performed in the last quarter?

Loan growth is a key indicator of the bank's health and ability to generate income; strong growth could signal a positive outlook.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for loan growth recovery, which could significantly boost earnings beyond current expectations.

Supporting Evidence

Nicolet has historically shown a strong ability to rebound after misses, with an 88% EPS beat rate in the past eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating that traders are anticipating significant volatility.

The bank's recent focus on expanding its loan portfolio may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision in earnings forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be pivotal in assessing Nicolet's ability to rebound from the recent earnings miss and maintain growth in a competitive environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.90 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.50 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the bank's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.65%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.6% while NIC has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

33.5%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 5.00Puts (200)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Nicolet beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.27%, confirming a positive turnaround in performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain flat as investors await further clarity on growth prospects.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a decline of about 0.58%, which could raise concerns about its future outlook.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth and demand trends in the current economic environment.
2Management's outlook on net interest margins and how they plan to manage costs.
3Details on any new initiatives or products that could drive future growth.
4Insights into customer behavior and how it may impact the bank's operations.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the regional banking sector.