Equity Profile

NIC

Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.

FinancialsRegional Banks$3.7B

Jul14Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services, including personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and mortgage services....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

$2.91

Revenue

Revenue figures reflect the bank's ability to generate income from its operations, which is crucial for growth.

$140M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NIC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services, including personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and mortgage services. As a player in the financial sector, it is influenced by trends in interest rates, consumer spending, and economic conditions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+7.12%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.16%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Nicolet Bankshares reported an EPS of $2.75, missing the estimate of $2.98 by 7.72%. The stock reacted slightly negatively, dropping 0.58% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are expecting Nicolet Bankshares to report an EPS of $2.91 and revenue of $140 million for Q2-2026. Given the previous quarter's miss, there is cautious optimism about whether the company can meet these expectations.

Bull Case

If Nicolet Bankshares can beat EPS expectations, it may signal strong operational efficiency and effective cost management, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses its EPS target again, it could raise concerns about its growth trajectory and profitability, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2.91

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

Revenue

$140M

Revenue figures reflect the bank's ability to generate income from its operations, which is crucial for growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.91?

A beat on EPS could restore investor confidence after the previous quarter's miss and indicate stronger operational performance.

What factors contributed to revenue expectations of $140 million?

Understanding the drivers behind revenue projections will help assess the bank's growth prospects and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of recent interest rate changes on Nicolet's profitability, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

The bank has a strong history of beating EPS estimates, with an 88% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

Options are pricing in a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for a surprise.

The previous quarter's miss may have created a low bar for expectations, allowing for a rebound.

Key Risk

If the bank's revenue exceeds $140 million, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a disappointing Q1-2026, making it essential for the company to regain investor confidence.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $3.00 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and potentially drive the stock higher.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.79 would validate concerns about the bank's growth and profitability, likely leading to a stock decline.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.65%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.6% while NIC has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

33.5%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 5.00Puts (200)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Nicolet Bankshares beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase of around 0.27% on the following day, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain stable, but cautious management commentary could lead to slight volatility.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of approximately 0.58% based on historical reactions, raising concerns about the bank's future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on loan growth and credit quality.
2Insights into the impact of interest rate changes on profitability.
3Updates on cost management initiatives and operational efficiency.
4Details on customer deposit trends and retention strategies.

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Company Snapshot

Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services, including personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and mortgage services....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

$2.91

Revenue

Revenue figures reflect the bank's ability to generate income from its operations, which is crucial for growth.

$140M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NIC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+7.12%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.16%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Nicolet Bankshares reported an EPS of $2.75, missing the estimate of $2.98 by 7.72%. The stock reacted slightly negatively, dropping 0.58% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Nicolet Bankshares can beat EPS expectations, it may signal strong operational efficiency and effective cost management, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses its EPS target again, it could raise concerns about its growth trajectory and profitability, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2.91

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

Revenue

$140M

Revenue figures reflect the bank's ability to generate income from its operations, which is crucial for growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.91?

A beat on EPS could restore investor confidence after the previous quarter's miss and indicate stronger operational performance.

What factors contributed to revenue expectations of $140 million?

Understanding the drivers behind revenue projections will help assess the bank's growth prospects and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of recent interest rate changes on Nicolet's profitability, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

The bank has a strong history of beating EPS estimates, with an 88% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

Options are pricing in a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for a surprise.

The previous quarter's miss may have created a low bar for expectations, allowing for a rebound.

Key Risk

If the bank's revenue exceeds $140 million, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a disappointing Q1-2026, making it essential for the company to regain investor confidence.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $3.00 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and potentially drive the stock higher.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.79 would validate concerns about the bank's growth and profitability, likely leading to a stock decline.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.65%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.6% while NIC has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

33.5%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 5.00Puts (200)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Nicolet Bankshares beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase of around 0.27% on the following day, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain stable, but cautious management commentary could lead to slight volatility.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of approximately 0.58% based on historical reactions, raising concerns about the bank's future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on loan growth and credit quality.
2Insights into the impact of interest rate changes on profitability.
3Updates on cost management initiatives and operational efficiency.
4Details on customer deposit trends and retention strategies.