Equity Profile

NMIH

NMI Holdings, Inc.

FinancialsCommercial & Residential Mortgage Finance$2.8B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

NMI Holdings, Inc. is a financial services company that provides mortgage insurance to support residential and commercial lending....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will help assess its financial health this quarter.

N/A

Mortgage Insurance Premiums

This metric reflects the core revenue stream for NMI Holdings and will indicate demand in the housing market.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NMIH Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

NMI Holdings, Inc. is a financial services company that provides mortgage insurance to support residential and commercial lending. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a crucial role in the housing finance sector, especially as interest rates and housing demand fluctuate.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+5.47%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.14%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, NMI Holdings reported an EPS of $1.28, exceeding expectations by 4.66%. However, the stock fell 5.86% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for NMI Holdings are mixed, with no analyst estimates available. Investors are keen to see if the company can maintain its earnings momentum.

Bull Case

If NMI Holdings continues to beat EPS expectations, it could signal strong operational performance and increased investor confidence in the housing market.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or reports rising claims, it could raise concerns about its risk management and profitability.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the company's strong historical EPS performance, any deviation could significantly impact investor sentiment.

What trends are being observed in mortgage insurance premiums and claims paid?

These metrics will provide insight into the company's risk exposure and overall market demand, which are crucial for future growth.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the resilience of NMI Holdings in a challenging housing environment, particularly if mortgage insurance premiums remain stable or rise.

Supporting Evidence

The company's historical EPS beat rate of 88% suggests strong operational performance.

Options pricing indicates a significant move, which may reflect heightened investor interest contrary to the cautious consensus.

Key Risk

If mortgage insurance premiums show unexpected growth, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the company's ability to sustain earnings growth amid fluctuating market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.30 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.20 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.68%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.7% while NMIH has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

31.2%

Calls (500)P/C Ratio: 21.00Puts (5K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 25 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If NMI Holdings beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.25%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 0.64%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns over future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on mortgage insurance premium trends and their impact on revenue.
2Insights into claims paid and how they compare to previous quarters.
3Management's outlook on the housing market and its implications for future earnings.
4Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the mortgage insurance space.

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Company Snapshot

NMI Holdings, Inc. is a financial services company that provides mortgage insurance to support residential and commercial lending....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will help assess its financial health this quarter.

N/A

Mortgage Insurance Premiums

This metric reflects the core revenue stream for NMI Holdings and will indicate demand in the housing market.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NMIH Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+5.47%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.14%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, NMI Holdings reported an EPS of $1.28, exceeding expectations by 4.66%. However, the stock fell 5.86% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for NMI Holdings are mixed, with no analyst estimates available. Investors are keen to see if the company can maintain its earnings momentum.

Bull Case

If NMI Holdings continues to beat EPS expectations, it could signal strong operational performance and increased investor confidence in the housing market.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or reports rising claims, it could raise concerns about its risk management and profitability.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the company's strong historical EPS performance, any deviation could significantly impact investor sentiment.

What trends are being observed in mortgage insurance premiums and claims paid?

These metrics will provide insight into the company's risk exposure and overall market demand, which are crucial for future growth.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the resilience of NMI Holdings in a challenging housing environment, particularly if mortgage insurance premiums remain stable or rise.

Supporting Evidence

The company's historical EPS beat rate of 88% suggests strong operational performance.

Options pricing indicates a significant move, which may reflect heightened investor interest contrary to the cautious consensus.

Key Risk

If mortgage insurance premiums show unexpected growth, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the company's ability to sustain earnings growth amid fluctuating market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.30 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.20 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.68%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.7% while NMIH has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

31.2%

Calls (500)P/C Ratio: 21.00Puts (5K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If NMI Holdings beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.25%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 0.64%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns over future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on mortgage insurance premium trends and their impact on revenue.
2Insights into claims paid and how they compare to previous quarters.
3Management's outlook on the housing market and its implications for future earnings.
4Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the mortgage insurance space.