Equity Profile

NMIH

NMI Holdings, Inc.

FinancialsCommercial & Residential Mortgage Finance$3.4B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and helps gauge the company's financial health.

$1.29

Revenue

Revenue indicates the overall sales performance and growth potential of the company.

$185M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NMIH Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance. As a key player in the mortgage insurance market, its performance is closely tied to housing market trends and interest rates, making it important for investors to monitor these factors.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+5.47%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.14%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, NMIH reported an EPS of $1.28, surpassing estimates by 4.66%. However, the stock experienced a decline of 5.86% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect NMIH to report strong earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $1.29. The market is closely watching how the company navigates current economic conditions and housing market dynamics.

Bull Case

If NMIH exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for mortgage insurance, potentially leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its ability to sustain profitability in a challenging housing market.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.29

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and helps gauge the company's financial health.

Revenue

$185M

Revenue indicates the overall sales performance and growth potential of the company.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will NMIH's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.29?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger-than-expected profitability and boost investor confidence.

What insights will management provide regarding revenue growth in the current housing market?

Understanding revenue trends is crucial for assessing the company's performance and future outlook.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising interest rates on mortgage insurance demand, which could lead to lower-than-expected revenue.

Supporting Evidence

NMIH's historical performance shows a strong EPS beat rate of 88%, suggesting potential for continued outperformance.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations that may not align with actual performance.

Key Risk

If revenue growth falls short of expectations, it could challenge the optimistic consensus on NMIH's earnings.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it reflects the company's ability to adapt to changing economic conditions and maintain profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.33 or higher would confirm strong demand for mortgage insurance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.25 would raise concerns about profitability and market conditions.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.68%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.7% while NMIH has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

31.2%

Calls (500)P/C Ratio: 21.00Puts (5K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If NMIH beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.25%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously as investors await further commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.64%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on the impact of interest rates on mortgage insurance demand.
2Insights into the competitive landscape and how NMIH is positioning itself.
3Updates on any changes in underwriting standards or risk assessments.
4Management's outlook on the housing market for the remainder of the year.
5Details on any strategic initiatives or partnerships that could drive growth.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and helps gauge the company's financial health.

$1.29

Revenue

Revenue indicates the overall sales performance and growth potential of the company.

$185M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NMIH Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+5.47%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.14%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, NMIH reported an EPS of $1.28, surpassing estimates by 4.66%. However, the stock experienced a decline of 5.86% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If NMIH exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for mortgage insurance, potentially leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its ability to sustain profitability in a challenging housing market.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.29

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and helps gauge the company's financial health.

Revenue

$185M

Revenue indicates the overall sales performance and growth potential of the company.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will NMIH's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.29?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger-than-expected profitability and boost investor confidence.

What insights will management provide regarding revenue growth in the current housing market?

Understanding revenue trends is crucial for assessing the company's performance and future outlook.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising interest rates on mortgage insurance demand, which could lead to lower-than-expected revenue.

Supporting Evidence

NMIH's historical performance shows a strong EPS beat rate of 88%, suggesting potential for continued outperformance.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations that may not align with actual performance.

Key Risk

If revenue growth falls short of expectations, it could challenge the optimistic consensus on NMIH's earnings.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it reflects the company's ability to adapt to changing economic conditions and maintain profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.33 or higher would confirm strong demand for mortgage insurance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.25 would raise concerns about profitability and market conditions.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.68%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.7% while NMIH has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

31.2%

Calls (500)P/C Ratio: 21.00Puts (5K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If NMIH beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.25%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously as investors await further commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.64%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on the impact of interest rates on mortgage insurance demand.
2Insights into the competitive landscape and how NMIH is positioning itself.
3Updates on any changes in underwriting standards or risk assessments.
4Management's outlook on the housing market for the remainder of the year.
5Details on any strategic initiatives or partnerships that could drive growth.