Equity Profile

NMR

Nomura Holdings, Inc.

FinancialsInvestment Banking & Brokerage$24.9B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2027Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Nomura Holdings, Inc. is a global financial services group that provides investment banking, asset management, and brokerage services....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company has performed relative to expectations.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to expand its business and attract clients.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NMR Q1-2027 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Nomura Holdings, Inc. is a global financial services group that provides investment banking, asset management, and brokerage services. As a key player in the financial sector, it is influenced by trends in global markets, interest rates, and economic conditions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

+70.12%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.47%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Nomura reported an EPS of $0.77, significantly exceeding estimates, which led to a notable stock decline the following day. The company has shown strong earnings surprises in recent quarters, indicating potential volatility.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Nomura's upcoming earnings are mixed, with no analyst estimates available. The company's recent strong performance may lead to cautious optimism among investors.

Bull Case

If Nomura continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal robust demand for its services and a strong market position.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant sell-off, especially given the recent stock performance.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q1-2027?

The EPS figure will be crucial in determining whether Nomura can maintain its trend of beating estimates and instill confidence in investors.

How have investment banking fees performed this quarter?

Investment banking fees are a key revenue driver, and any significant changes could impact overall financial performance and market sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Nomura's ability to capitalize on increased market activity, especially in investment banking, which could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

Nomura has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational execution.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders anticipate significant news.

The recent strong performance in global markets may drive higher investment banking fees than expected.

Key Risk

If investment banking fees exceed expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of Nomura's growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on the company's ability to sustain profitability and manage costs amid changing market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 would indicate potential issues in revenue generation and market demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.35%

Historical Avg

±3.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.3% while NMR has averaged ±3.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.0%

Calls (600)P/C Ratio: 0.25Puts (0)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Nomura beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.55%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 1.40%, reflecting investor disappointment and potential concerns about future growth.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on investment banking activity and fee generation.
2Management's outlook on market conditions and potential challenges.
3Details on cost management strategies and operational efficiencies.
4Insights into client demand for services in the upcoming quarters.
5Any commentary on geographic performance and market expansion.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Nomura Holdings, Inc. is a global financial services group that provides investment banking, asset management, and brokerage services....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company has performed relative to expectations.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to expand its business and attract clients.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NMR Q1-2027 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

+70.12%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.47%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Nomura's upcoming earnings are mixed, with no analyst estimates available. The company's recent strong performance may lead to cautious optimism among investors.

Bull Case

If Nomura continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal robust demand for its services and a strong market position.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant sell-off, especially given the recent stock performance.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q1-2027?

The EPS figure will be crucial in determining whether Nomura can maintain its trend of beating estimates and instill confidence in investors.

How have investment banking fees performed this quarter?

Investment banking fees are a key revenue driver, and any significant changes could impact overall financial performance and market sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Nomura's ability to capitalize on increased market activity, especially in investment banking, which could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

Nomura has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational execution.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders anticipate significant news.

The recent strong performance in global markets may drive higher investment banking fees than expected.

Key Risk

If investment banking fees exceed expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of Nomura's growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on the company's ability to sustain profitability and manage costs amid changing market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 would indicate potential issues in revenue generation and market demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.35%

Historical Avg

±3.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.3% while NMR has averaged ±3.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.0%

Calls (600)P/C Ratio: 0.25Puts (0)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Nomura beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.55%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 1.40%, reflecting investor disappointment and potential concerns about future growth.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on investment banking activity and fee generation.
2Management's outlook on market conditions and potential challenges.
3Details on cost management strategies and operational efficiencies.
4Insights into client demand for services in the upcoming quarters.
5Any commentary on geographic performance and market expansion.