Equity Profile

NMR

Nomura Holdings, Inc.

FinancialsInvestment Banking & Brokerage$28.1B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2027Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Nomura Holdings, Inc. is a global financial services group based in Japan, specializing in investment banking and brokerage services....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will show how well Nomura is managing its costs and revenue.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share and attract new clients.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NMR Q1-2027 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Nomura Holdings, Inc. is a global financial services group based in Japan, specializing in investment banking and brokerage services. With a market cap of $28 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, especially in Asia, and is influenced by trends in global markets and economic conditions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

+70.12%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.47%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Nomura reported an impressive EPS of $0.77, significantly beating estimates. However, despite the strong earnings surprise, the stock fell by nearly 5% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed ahead of the earnings report, with no analyst estimates available. Investors will be keen to see if Nomura can maintain its recent performance.

Bull Case

The optimistic view is that Nomura will continue to outperform expectations, driven by strong trading volumes and effective cost management, leading to further increases in EPS.

Bear Case

On the downside, if Nomura fails to meet even its previous performance levels, it could face significant stock price pressure, particularly given the recent volatility.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given Nomura's recent strong EPS surprises, investors will be eager to see if this trend continues, which could significantly impact stock performance.

How is Nomura's trading volume performing relative to market expectations?

Trading volume is a critical metric for brokerage firms, and any significant changes could indicate shifts in market conditions or investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Nomura's ability to leverage recent market volatility for increased trading revenues, which could lead to a stronger-than-expected EPS.

Supporting Evidence

Nomura's recent EPS surprises indicate a potential for continued strong performance.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting traders expect volatility that could favor Nomura's trading operations.

Key Risk

If trading volumes exceed expectations, it could lead to a substantial upward revision in EPS forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is under scrutiny as Nomura seeks to build on its recent successes while facing a challenging market environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues in revenue generation or cost management.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.35%

Historical Avg

±3.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 16%, indicating that traders expect substantial volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.3% while NMR has averaged ±3.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.0%

Calls (600)P/C Ratio: 0.25Puts (0)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Nomura beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.55% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in the market.

Miss

If Nomura misses expectations, the stock could drop by approximately 1.40%, indicating disappointment among investors.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on trading volume trends and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Management's outlook on market conditions and their impact on future earnings.
3Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
4Insights into any changes in client activity or new business wins.
5Any commentary on the competitive landscape and how Nomura plans to differentiate itself.

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Company Snapshot

Nomura Holdings, Inc. is a global financial services group based in Japan, specializing in investment banking and brokerage services....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will show how well Nomura is managing its costs and revenue.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share and attract new clients.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NMR Q1-2027 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

+70.12%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.47%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Nomura reported an impressive EPS of $0.77, significantly beating estimates. However, despite the strong earnings surprise, the stock fell by nearly 5% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed ahead of the earnings report, with no analyst estimates available. Investors will be keen to see if Nomura can maintain its recent performance.

Bull Case

The optimistic view is that Nomura will continue to outperform expectations, driven by strong trading volumes and effective cost management, leading to further increases in EPS.

Bear Case

On the downside, if Nomura fails to meet even its previous performance levels, it could face significant stock price pressure, particularly given the recent volatility.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given Nomura's recent strong EPS surprises, investors will be eager to see if this trend continues, which could significantly impact stock performance.

How is Nomura's trading volume performing relative to market expectations?

Trading volume is a critical metric for brokerage firms, and any significant changes could indicate shifts in market conditions or investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Nomura's ability to leverage recent market volatility for increased trading revenues, which could lead to a stronger-than-expected EPS.

Supporting Evidence

Nomura's recent EPS surprises indicate a potential for continued strong performance.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting traders expect volatility that could favor Nomura's trading operations.

Key Risk

If trading volumes exceed expectations, it could lead to a substantial upward revision in EPS forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is under scrutiny as Nomura seeks to build on its recent successes while facing a challenging market environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues in revenue generation or cost management.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.35%

Historical Avg

±3.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 16%, indicating that traders expect substantial volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.3% while NMR has averaged ±3.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.0%

Calls (600)P/C Ratio: 0.25Puts (0)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Nomura beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.55% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in the market.

Miss

If Nomura misses expectations, the stock could drop by approximately 1.40%, indicating disappointment among investors.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on trading volume trends and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Management's outlook on market conditions and their impact on future earnings.
3Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
4Insights into any changes in client activity or new business wins.
5Any commentary on the competitive landscape and how Nomura plans to differentiate itself.