Equity Profile

ONON

On Holding AG

Consumer DiscretionaryFootwear$12.6B

Aug11Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

On Holding AG is a footwear company in the Consumer Discretionary sector, known for its innovative running shoes and athletic apparel. As consumer spending trends shift, On's performance can provide insights into the health of the retail market and changing consumer preferences.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well On is managing costs and generating revenue.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales, which is crucial for sustaining its market position.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ONON Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+44.11%

Avg Stock Reaction

+5.26%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, On reported an EPS of $0.48, significantly beating expectations by 65%. However, the stock saw a slight decline the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about On's upcoming earnings, given its recent strong performance but lack of specific guidance.

Bull Case

If On continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong demand for its products and effective cost management, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about future growth in a competitive market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected EPS for Q2-2026?

The EPS figure will be crucial in assessing On's profitability and whether it can maintain its growth trajectory.

How is revenue growth trending compared to previous quarters?

Understanding revenue trends will help gauge consumer demand and the company's market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate On's ability to leverage its strong brand and innovative products to drive sales, despite potential economic headwinds.

Supporting Evidence

Recent EPS surprises indicate strong operational performance, suggesting the company can continue to outperform expectations.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations for volatility.

Key Risk

If On's revenue growth significantly exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating On's ability to sustain its recent growth amidst competitive pressures and changing consumer preferences.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or higher would confirm strong demand and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30 would raise concerns about profitability and future growth.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±21.07%

Historical Avg

±7.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±21.1% while ONON has averaged ±7.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

34.4%

Calls (187K)P/C Ratio: 0.23Puts (307K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If On beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +5.78%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may see muted reactions as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A disappointing report could lead to a decline of about -4.37%, raising concerns about the company's growth prospects.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

Senate only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

I-MEJr. Angus S KingSen.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or innovations.
2Insights into consumer demand trends in key markets.
3Management's outlook on supply chain challenges.
4Comments on competitive pressures and market share.
5Guidance on future revenue growth expectations.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well On is managing costs and generating revenue.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales, which is crucial for sustaining its market position.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ONON Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+44.11%

Avg Stock Reaction

+5.26%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, On reported an EPS of $0.48, significantly beating expectations by 65%. However, the stock saw a slight decline the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about On's upcoming earnings, given its recent strong performance but lack of specific guidance.

Bull Case

If On continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong demand for its products and effective cost management, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about future growth in a competitive market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected EPS for Q2-2026?

The EPS figure will be crucial in assessing On's profitability and whether it can maintain its growth trajectory.

How is revenue growth trending compared to previous quarters?

Understanding revenue trends will help gauge consumer demand and the company's market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate On's ability to leverage its strong brand and innovative products to drive sales, despite potential economic headwinds.

Supporting Evidence

Recent EPS surprises indicate strong operational performance, suggesting the company can continue to outperform expectations.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations for volatility.

Key Risk

If On's revenue growth significantly exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating On's ability to sustain its recent growth amidst competitive pressures and changing consumer preferences.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or higher would confirm strong demand and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30 would raise concerns about profitability and future growth.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±21.07%

Historical Avg

±7.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±21.1% while ONON has averaged ±7.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

34.4%

Calls (187K)P/C Ratio: 0.23Puts (307K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If On beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +5.78%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may see muted reactions as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A disappointing report could lead to a decline of about -4.37%, raising concerns about the company's growth prospects.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

Senate only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

I-MEJr. Angus S KingSen.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or innovations.
2Insights into consumer demand trends in key markets.
3Management's outlook on supply chain challenges.
4Comments on competitive pressures and market share.
5Guidance on future revenue growth expectations.