Equity Profile

PBF

PBF Energy Inc.

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$5.1B

Apr30Thu

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market6:30 AM EDT

PBF Energy Inc. Beats on EPS, Stock Up 0.53%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$1.65	$-0.78	+307.81%
Revenue	N/A	$7.6B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

PBF Energy Inc. Beats on EPS, Stock Up 0.53%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$1.65	$-0.78	+307.81%
Revenue	N/A	$7.6B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

PBF Energy's strong EPS performance significantly exceeded expectations, which likely contributed to the slight increase in stock price. However, with no revenue data provided and no guidance updates, investors may remain cautious about future performance. The stock's modest rise suggests a positive reaction to the earnings surprise, but uncertainty remains due to the lack of additional context from management.

Company Snapshot

PBF Energy Inc. is an energy company focused on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs amid fluctuating oil prices.

$-0.78

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for refined products.

$7.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

PBF Energy Inc. is an energy company focused on oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $5 billion, it plays a significant role in the energy sector, especially as global energy demands evolve and the market faces challenges such as fluctuating oil prices and regulatory changes.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+117.02%

Avg Stock Reaction

-4.11%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, PBF Energy reported an earnings surprise with an EPS of $0.66, significantly higher than the expected loss. However, the stock fell by nearly 6% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are expecting a challenging quarter for PBF Energy, with a consensus EPS loss of $-0.78. This reflects concerns over profitability amid volatile oil prices and operational costs.

Bull Case

If PBF can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal improved operational efficiency and market demand, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports a larger-than-expected loss or lower revenue, it could raise concerns about its financial health and lead to a further decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.78

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs amid fluctuating oil prices.

Revenue

$7.6B

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for refined products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will PBF Energy's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $-0.78?

A better-than-expected EPS could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which are crucial for investor confidence.

What revenue figures will PBF report compared to the consensus of $7.6 billion?

Revenue performance will reflect market demand and the company's ability to capitalize on refining margins, impacting future growth prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus is overly pessimistic about PBF's ability to manage costs and generate revenue, given recent operational improvements that may not be fully reflected in estimates.

Supporting Evidence

PBF's recent EPS surprises indicate potential for better-than-expected performance.

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility and potential upside.

Key Risk

If PBF reports an EPS significantly better than $-0.78, it could challenge the current negative sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around PBF's ability to manage costs and generate revenue in a challenging oil market.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of better than $-0.35 and revenue exceeding $9.0 billion would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-1.27 and revenue below $5.8 billion would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.88%

Historical Avg

±4.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±11.4% while PBF has averaged ±4.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

59.5%

Calls (335K)P/C Ratio: 0.00Puts (21K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 20 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 9 of 20 faded and 11 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.6%, with a raw directional average of +0.8% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If PBF beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise, confirming operational improvements and market demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical data suggesting an average drop of around 4%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on refining margins and how they are impacting profitability.
2Updates on operational efficiencies that may have been implemented.
3Insights into market demand for refined products in the upcoming quarter.
4Management's outlook on oil price trends and their impact on future earnings.
5Any strategic initiatives that could drive revenue growth moving forward.

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Company Snapshot

PBF Energy Inc. is an energy company focused on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs amid fluctuating oil prices.

$-0.78

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for refined products.

$7.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+117.02%

Avg Stock Reaction

-4.11%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are expecting a challenging quarter for PBF Energy, with a consensus EPS loss of $-0.78. This reflects concerns over profitability amid volatile oil prices and operational costs.

Bull Case

If PBF can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal improved operational efficiency and market demand, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports a larger-than-expected loss or lower revenue, it could raise concerns about its financial health and lead to a further decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.78

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs amid fluctuating oil prices.

Revenue

$7.6B

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for refined products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will PBF Energy's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $-0.78?

A better-than-expected EPS could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which are crucial for investor confidence.

What revenue figures will PBF report compared to the consensus of $7.6 billion?

Revenue performance will reflect market demand and the company's ability to capitalize on refining margins, impacting future growth prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus is overly pessimistic about PBF's ability to manage costs and generate revenue, given recent operational improvements that may not be fully reflected in estimates.

Supporting Evidence

PBF's recent EPS surprises indicate potential for better-than-expected performance.

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility and potential upside.

Key Risk

If PBF reports an EPS significantly better than $-0.78, it could challenge the current negative sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around PBF's ability to manage costs and generate revenue in a challenging oil market.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of better than $-0.35 and revenue exceeding $9.0 billion would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-1.27 and revenue below $5.8 billion would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.88%

Historical Avg

±4.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±11.4% while PBF has averaged ±4.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

59.5%

Calls (335K)P/C Ratio: 0.00Puts (21K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 20 (45%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If PBF beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise, confirming operational improvements and market demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical data suggesting an average drop of around 4%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on refining margins and how they are impacting profitability.
2Updates on operational efficiencies that may have been implemented.
3Insights into market demand for refined products in the upcoming quarter.
4Management's outlook on oil price trends and their impact on future earnings.
5Any strategic initiatives that could drive revenue growth moving forward.