Equity Profile

PBF

PBF Energy Inc.

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$8.8B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

PBF Energy Inc. is a major player in the oil and gas refining and marketing sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well PBF has managed costs and revenues.

$5.64

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is crucial for assessing overall business health.

$9.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PBF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

PBF Energy Inc. is a major player in the oil and gas refining and marketing sector. With a market cap of $9 billion, the company is significant in the energy landscape, especially as global energy demands evolve and the market reacts to fluctuating oil prices.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+117.02%

Avg Stock Reaction

-4.11%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, PBF Energy reported an impressive EPS of $1.65, significantly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.53% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about PBF's upcoming earnings, with expectations for strong EPS and revenue figures. However, the volatility in oil prices could impact results.

Bull Case

If PBF can leverage high refining margins and maintain operational efficiency, it could exceed EPS expectations, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company faces unexpected costs or lower demand for refined products, it could miss earnings estimates, resulting in a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$5.64

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well PBF has managed costs and revenues.

Revenue

$9.4B

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is crucial for assessing overall business health.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will PBF's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $5.64?

A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational performance and boost investor confidence.

What factors influenced revenue expectations of $9.4 billion?

Understanding revenue drivers will help gauge the company's market position and future outlook.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate PBF's ability to capitalize on refining margins, given recent trends in oil prices.

Supporting Evidence

PBF's recent EPS surprises indicate potential for continued strong performance.

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility.

Historical performance shows that PBF has a mixed track record, which may not fully reflect current operational improvements.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision in earnings forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on refining margins and operational efficiency amid fluctuating oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $6.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $5.00 would confirm the bear case, suggesting operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±29.88%

Historical Avg

±4.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating heightened uncertainty or anticipation around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±29.9% while PBF has averaged ±4.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

70.2%

Calls (121K)P/C Ratio: 0.25Puts (14K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If PBF beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.19%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted reactions as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a drop of about 4.04%, reflecting disappointment in operational performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margins and their impact on profitability.
2Insights into operational efficiency and cost management strategies.
3Management's outlook on oil price trends and demand forecasts.
4Details on any new contracts or partnerships that could influence revenue.
5Responses to market conditions affecting the oil and gas sector.

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Company Snapshot

PBF Energy Inc. is a major player in the oil and gas refining and marketing sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well PBF has managed costs and revenues.

$5.64

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is crucial for assessing overall business health.

$9.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PBF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+117.02%

Avg Stock Reaction

-4.11%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, PBF Energy reported an impressive EPS of $1.65, significantly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.53% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about PBF's upcoming earnings, with expectations for strong EPS and revenue figures. However, the volatility in oil prices could impact results.

Bull Case

If PBF can leverage high refining margins and maintain operational efficiency, it could exceed EPS expectations, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company faces unexpected costs or lower demand for refined products, it could miss earnings estimates, resulting in a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$5.64

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well PBF has managed costs and revenues.

Revenue

$9.4B

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is crucial for assessing overall business health.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will PBF's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $5.64?

A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational performance and boost investor confidence.

What factors influenced revenue expectations of $9.4 billion?

Understanding revenue drivers will help gauge the company's market position and future outlook.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate PBF's ability to capitalize on refining margins, given recent trends in oil prices.

Supporting Evidence

PBF's recent EPS surprises indicate potential for continued strong performance.

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility.

Historical performance shows that PBF has a mixed track record, which may not fully reflect current operational improvements.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision in earnings forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on refining margins and operational efficiency amid fluctuating oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $6.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $5.00 would confirm the bear case, suggesting operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±29.88%

Historical Avg

±4.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating heightened uncertainty or anticipation around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±29.9% while PBF has averaged ±4.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

70.2%

Calls (121K)P/C Ratio: 0.25Puts (14K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If PBF beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.19%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted reactions as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a drop of about 4.04%, reflecting disappointment in operational performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margins and their impact on profitability.
2Insights into operational efficiency and cost management strategies.
3Management's outlook on oil price trends and demand forecasts.
4Details on any new contracts or partnerships that could influence revenue.
5Responses to market conditions affecting the oil and gas sector.