Equity Profile

PSX

Phillips 66

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$79.5B

Jul24Fri

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Refining Margins

Refining margins are critical for Phillips 66 as they directly affect profitability in refining operations.

N/A

Total Throughput

Total throughput indicates the volume of crude oil processed, which is vital for assessing operational efficiency.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PSX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Phillips 66 (PSX) is a major player in the energy sector, focusing on oil refining and marketing. The company plays a crucial role in the supply chain of petroleum products, which are essential for transportation and energy production. As global energy demand fluctuates, Phillips 66's performance can be significantly impacted by changes in oil prices and refining margins.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+37.19%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.32%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Phillips 66 reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.49, significantly beating expectations of a loss. The stock reacted positively, gaining over 5% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management emphasized a focus on improving refining efficiency.
They committed to maintaining strong operational performance despite market volatility.
The company highlighted plans for strategic investments in renewable energy.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, Wall Street is cautiously optimistic about Phillips 66's upcoming earnings, especially after a strong performance last quarter. Analysts are looking for continued improvements in refining margins and operational efficiency.

Bull Case

If refining margins remain strong and throughput increases, Phillips 66 could see significant profit growth, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if operating expenses rise unexpectedly or refining margins decline, the stock could face downward pressure.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the refining margins be for Q2-2026?

Refining margins are a key indicator of profitability for Phillips 66, and any significant changes could impact investor sentiment.

How has total throughput changed compared to the previous quarter?

Changes in throughput can provide insights into operational efficiency and market demand, which are critical for future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for refining margins to improve significantly due to recent supply chain adjustments and increased demand for refined products.

Supporting Evidence

Historical data shows that Phillips 66 has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting stronger operational performance than expected.

Options are pricing a 9.56% move, indicating that the market anticipates volatility that may not align with actual performance.

The company's commitment to renewable energy investments could provide additional revenue streams that analysts are not fully accounting for.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed $15 per barrel, it could significantly challenge the current consensus outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus is on how well Phillips 66 can navigate market volatility and maintain operational efficiency.

Bull Confirmed If

Refining margins exceeding $15 per barrel would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in total throughput below 1.8 million barrels per day would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.56%

Historical Avg

±3.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a larger-than-usual move for Phillips 66, indicating heightened uncertainty or anticipation around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.6% while PSX has averaged ±3.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

35.5%

Calls (60K)P/C Ratio: 0.38Puts (57K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 23 of 30 (77%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Phillips 66 beats expectations, history suggests a stock increase of around 1.61%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious guidance, the stock may see muted reactions as investors weigh future prospects.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 0.69%, reflecting disappointment in operational performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on refining margins and their impact on profitability.
2Details on total throughput and operational efficiency improvements.
3Any commentary on the company's renewable energy initiatives.
4Management's outlook on market conditions and potential challenges.
5Insights into cost management strategies and operating expenses.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Refining Margins

Refining margins are critical for Phillips 66 as they directly affect profitability in refining operations.

N/A

Total Throughput

Total throughput indicates the volume of crude oil processed, which is vital for assessing operational efficiency.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PSX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+37.19%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.32%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Phillips 66 reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.49, significantly beating expectations of a loss. The stock reacted positively, gaining over 5% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management emphasized a focus on improving refining efficiency.
They committed to maintaining strong operational performance despite market volatility.
The company highlighted plans for strategic investments in renewable energy.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If refining margins remain strong and throughput increases, Phillips 66 could see significant profit growth, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if operating expenses rise unexpectedly or refining margins decline, the stock could face downward pressure.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the refining margins be for Q2-2026?

Refining margins are a key indicator of profitability for Phillips 66, and any significant changes could impact investor sentiment.

How has total throughput changed compared to the previous quarter?

Changes in throughput can provide insights into operational efficiency and market demand, which are critical for future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for refining margins to improve significantly due to recent supply chain adjustments and increased demand for refined products.

Supporting Evidence

Historical data shows that Phillips 66 has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting stronger operational performance than expected.

Options are pricing a 9.56% move, indicating that the market anticipates volatility that may not align with actual performance.

The company's commitment to renewable energy investments could provide additional revenue streams that analysts are not fully accounting for.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed $15 per barrel, it could significantly challenge the current consensus outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus is on how well Phillips 66 can navigate market volatility and maintain operational efficiency.

Bull Confirmed If

Refining margins exceeding $15 per barrel would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in total throughput below 1.8 million barrels per day would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.56%

Historical Avg

±3.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a larger-than-usual move for Phillips 66, indicating heightened uncertainty or anticipation around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.6% while PSX has averaged ±3.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

35.5%

Calls (60K)P/C Ratio: 0.38Puts (57K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Phillips 66 beats expectations, history suggests a stock increase of around 1.61%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious guidance, the stock may see muted reactions as investors weigh future prospects.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 0.69%, reflecting disappointment in operational performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on refining margins and their impact on profitability.
2Details on total throughput and operational efficiency improvements.
3Any commentary on the company's renewable energy initiatives.
4Management's outlook on market conditions and potential challenges.
5Insights into cost management strategies and operating expenses.