Equity Profile

PSX

Phillips 66

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$92.8B

Jul24Fri

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Phillips 66 (PSX) is a major player in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $93 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the energy supply chain, particularly as global demand for energy continues to evolve amidst ongoing discussions about sustainability and energy transition.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$7.50

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for Phillips 66's products.

$44.0B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PSX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+37.19%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.32%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Phillips 66 reported an EPS of $0.49, significantly beating expectations of a loss. The stock reacted positively, gaining over 5% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are generally optimistic, expecting strong earnings driven by refining margins and demand recovery. However, there are concerns about potential volatility in oil prices.

Bull Case

If Phillips 66 can capitalize on high refining margins and strong demand, it could exceed earnings expectations, leading to a significant stock price increase.

Bear Case

Conversely, if oil prices drop or operational costs rise unexpectedly, the company may struggle to meet earnings projections, leading to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$7.50

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$44.0B

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for Phillips 66's products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Phillips 66's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $7.50?

A strong EPS could indicate robust operational efficiency and market demand, which would likely drive the stock price higher.

What are the revenue projections for the refining segment this quarter?

Understanding revenue from refining will help gauge the company's performance against market conditions and demand fluctuations.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of refining margins, which could be stronger than expected due to ongoing supply chain disruptions.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends in oil prices suggest a potential increase in refining margins, which could boost earnings beyond current estimates.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating that traders expect significant volatility.

Phillips 66's recent operational improvements may not be fully reflected in analyst forecasts, suggesting upside potential.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision of earnings forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on refining margins and overall demand in the energy sector, which are critical to Phillips 66's profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $8.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $6.00 would confirm the bear case, suggesting challenges in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.56%

Historical Avg

±3.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.6% while PSX has averaged ±3.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

35.5%

Calls (60K)P/C Ratio: 0.38Puts (57K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Phillips 66 beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.61%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance from management.

Miss

Should the company miss earnings expectations, history suggests a decline of approximately 0.69%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margins and how they compare to last quarter.
2Management's outlook on oil price trends and their impact on operations.
3Details on any cost management initiatives that could improve profitability.
4Insights into demand trends for gasoline and other refined products.
5Any commentary on the company's long-term strategy in the context of energy transition.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$7.50

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for Phillips 66's products.

$44.0B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PSX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+37.19%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.32%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Phillips 66 reported an EPS of $0.49, significantly beating expectations of a loss. The stock reacted positively, gaining over 5% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are generally optimistic, expecting strong earnings driven by refining margins and demand recovery. However, there are concerns about potential volatility in oil prices.

Bull Case

If Phillips 66 can capitalize on high refining margins and strong demand, it could exceed earnings expectations, leading to a significant stock price increase.

Bear Case

Conversely, if oil prices drop or operational costs rise unexpectedly, the company may struggle to meet earnings projections, leading to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$7.50

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$44.0B

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for Phillips 66's products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Phillips 66's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $7.50?

A strong EPS could indicate robust operational efficiency and market demand, which would likely drive the stock price higher.

What are the revenue projections for the refining segment this quarter?

Understanding revenue from refining will help gauge the company's performance against market conditions and demand fluctuations.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of refining margins, which could be stronger than expected due to ongoing supply chain disruptions.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends in oil prices suggest a potential increase in refining margins, which could boost earnings beyond current estimates.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating that traders expect significant volatility.

Phillips 66's recent operational improvements may not be fully reflected in analyst forecasts, suggesting upside potential.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision of earnings forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on refining margins and overall demand in the energy sector, which are critical to Phillips 66's profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $8.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $6.00 would confirm the bear case, suggesting challenges in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.56%

Historical Avg

±3.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.6% while PSX has averaged ±3.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

35.5%

Calls (60K)P/C Ratio: 0.38Puts (57K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Phillips 66 beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.61%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance from management.

Miss

Should the company miss earnings expectations, history suggests a decline of approximately 0.69%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margins and how they compare to last quarter.
2Management's outlook on oil price trends and their impact on operations.
3Details on any cost management initiatives that could improve profitability.
4Insights into demand trends for gasoline and other refined products.
5Any commentary on the company's long-term strategy in the context of energy transition.