Equity Profile

PYPL

PayPal Holdings, Inc.

FinancialsTransaction & Payment Processing Services$36.4B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

PayPal Holdings, Inc. is a leading digital payments platform that allows consumers and businesses to make and receive payments online....

Key Metrics to Watch

Total Payment Volume (TPV)

This metric indicates the overall activity on the platform and is a key driver of revenue.

Expected to show growth compared to the previous quarter.

Active Accounts

The number of active accounts reflects user engagement and the platform's growth potential.

Analysts expect an increase in active accounts.

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PYPL Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

PayPal Holdings, Inc. is a leading digital payments platform that allows consumers and businesses to make and receive payments online. As part of the financial sector, it plays a crucial role in the growing trend of digital transactions and e-commerce, making it a significant player in the transaction and payment processing industry.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+9.65%

Avg Stock Reaction

-4.90%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, PayPal reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.34, beating expectations by 5.85%. However, the stock price fell by 7.74% the following day, indicating market concerns despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on increasing total payment volume.
Expand partnerships with merchants.
Enhance user experience on the platform.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect PayPal to report solid earnings, driven by increased transaction volumes and user growth. However, there are concerns about competition and market saturation.

Bull Case

If PayPal can demonstrate strong growth in active accounts and total payment volume, it could signal robust demand for its services, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

If the company fails to meet expectations for user growth or shows signs of declining transaction volumes, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Total Payment Volume (TPV)

Expected to show growth compared to the previous quarter.

This metric indicates the overall activity on the platform and is a key driver of revenue.

Active Accounts

Analysts expect an increase in active accounts.

The number of active accounts reflects user engagement and the platform's growth potential.

Revenue Growth Rate

Projected to be in line with or slightly above previous quarters.

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the growth rate of Total Payment Volume compared to last quarter?

This metric is crucial as it directly impacts revenue and indicates the company's ability to attract and retain users.

How many new active accounts were added this quarter?

The number of active accounts is a key indicator of user engagement and future revenue potential.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate PayPal's ability to drive user growth through new partnerships and enhanced services, which could lead to stronger-than-expected performance.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends show increased consumer spending online, which could boost transaction volumes.

The options market is pricing a smaller move than historical averages, suggesting potential for a larger surprise.

Insider activity indicates confidence in the company's future growth prospects.

Key Risk

If Total Payment Volume growth exceeds 10%, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on user engagement metrics and overall transaction growth amid increasing competition.

Bull Confirmed If

Total Payment Volume growth of 10% or more compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in active accounts or a TPV growth rate below 5% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.7%

Historical Avg

±8.6%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a move of about 4.7% in either direction following the earnings report, which is lower than the historical average move of 8.56%.

Options are pricing ±4.7% while PYPL has averaged ±8.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

30.2%

Calls (2.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.48Puts (1.9M)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If PayPal beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase of around 2.69% on the following day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may react neutrally or slightly down.

Miss

If PayPal misses earnings expectations, history suggests a significant drop, averaging around 20.31% in past quarters.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

3 buys·4 sells

Members

House + Senate

Est. Notional

$256,007.00–$590,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-FLByron DonaldsRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on new partnerships and their expected impact on transaction volume.
2Details on user engagement strategies and how they plan to attract new active accounts.
3Any commentary on competitive pressures and how PayPal plans to differentiate itself.
4Insights into trends in consumer spending that could affect payment volumes.
5Management's outlook on future revenue growth and any changes to guidance.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

PayPal Holdings, Inc. is a leading digital payments platform that allows consumers and businesses to make and receive payments online....

Key Metrics to Watch

Total Payment Volume (TPV)

This metric indicates the overall activity on the platform and is a key driver of revenue.

Expected to show growth compared to the previous quarter.

Active Accounts

The number of active accounts reflects user engagement and the platform's growth potential.

Analysts expect an increase in active accounts.

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PYPL Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+9.65%

Avg Stock Reaction

-4.90%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on increasing total payment volume.
Expand partnerships with merchants.
Enhance user experience on the platform.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect PayPal to report solid earnings, driven by increased transaction volumes and user growth. However, there are concerns about competition and market saturation.

Bull Case

If PayPal can demonstrate strong growth in active accounts and total payment volume, it could signal robust demand for its services, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

If the company fails to meet expectations for user growth or shows signs of declining transaction volumes, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Total Payment Volume (TPV)

Expected to show growth compared to the previous quarter.

This metric indicates the overall activity on the platform and is a key driver of revenue.

Active Accounts

Analysts expect an increase in active accounts.

The number of active accounts reflects user engagement and the platform's growth potential.

Revenue Growth Rate

Projected to be in line with or slightly above previous quarters.

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the growth rate of Total Payment Volume compared to last quarter?

This metric is crucial as it directly impacts revenue and indicates the company's ability to attract and retain users.

How many new active accounts were added this quarter?

The number of active accounts is a key indicator of user engagement and future revenue potential.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate PayPal's ability to drive user growth through new partnerships and enhanced services, which could lead to stronger-than-expected performance.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends show increased consumer spending online, which could boost transaction volumes.

The options market is pricing a smaller move than historical averages, suggesting potential for a larger surprise.

Insider activity indicates confidence in the company's future growth prospects.

Key Risk

If Total Payment Volume growth exceeds 10%, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on user engagement metrics and overall transaction growth amid increasing competition.

Bull Confirmed If

Total Payment Volume growth of 10% or more compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in active accounts or a TPV growth rate below 5% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.7%

Historical Avg

±8.6%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a move of about 4.7% in either direction following the earnings report, which is lower than the historical average move of 8.56%.

Options are pricing ±4.7% while PYPL has averaged ±8.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

30.2%

Calls (2.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.48Puts (1.9M)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If PayPal beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase of around 2.69% on the following day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may react neutrally or slightly down.

Miss

If PayPal misses earnings expectations, history suggests a significant drop, averaging around 20.31% in past quarters.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

3 buys·4 sells

Members

House + Senate

Est. Notional

$256,007.00–$590,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-FLByron DonaldsRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on new partnerships and their expected impact on transaction volume.
2Details on user engagement strategies and how they plan to attract new active accounts.
3Any commentary on competitive pressures and how PayPal plans to differentiate itself.
4Insights into trends in consumer spending that could affect payment volumes.
5Management's outlook on future revenue growth and any changes to guidance.