Equity Profile

RDN

Radian Group Inc.

FinancialsCommercial & Residential Mortgage Finance$4.5B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Radian Group Inc. (RDN) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, directly impacting investor sentiment.

Not available

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share and maintain profitability.

Not available

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RDN Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Radian Group Inc. (RDN) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance. As a key player in the mortgage insurance market, Radian helps lenders manage risk and provides support to homebuyers, making it an important company in the housing finance ecosystem.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.88%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Radian reported an EPS of $0.89, missing estimates by nearly 24%. Despite the miss, the stock saw a slight increase of 0.42% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Radian's upcoming earnings are uncertain, especially following the significant EPS miss last quarter. Investors are keen to see if the company can rebound and provide positive guidance.

Bull Case

If Radian can exceed EPS expectations and demonstrate strong revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in its financial performance, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Radian fails to meet expectations again or provides weak guidance, it may lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Radian's EPS exceed $1.00 this quarter?

Given the significant miss last quarter, a rebound in EPS would indicate improved operational efficiency and market conditions.

What guidance will Radian provide for the upcoming quarters?

Management's outlook will be crucial for investor confidence, especially after the recent earnings miss.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Radian's ability to rebound from last quarter's miss, as historical data shows a strong EPS beat rate.

Supporting Evidence

Radian has an 88% EPS beat rate historically, indicating potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing suggests a smaller move than historical averages, indicating a potential mispricing of risk.

Key Risk

If Radian's EPS exceeds $1.00, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a notable earnings miss, and guidance will be closely scrutinized.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.80 would support the bear case and raise concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±0.78%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing a relatively small move, suggesting that investors are uncertain about significant changes in stock price following the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±0.8% while RDN has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.5%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 3.25Puts (1K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$1.1M

30,000 sh

1 insider

Net

$1.1M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 3 open-market trades

Sr EVP, General CounselHoffman Edward J
$1.1M
Net selling

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Radian beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.95%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may react moderately, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the market.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.42%, reinforcing negative sentiment and concerns about the company's trajectory.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on mortgage insurance demand trends.
2Details on operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
3Insights into the housing market outlook and its impact on Radian's business.
4Management's commentary on competitive positioning in the mortgage finance sector.
5Any changes in regulatory environment affecting the mortgage industry.

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Company Snapshot

Radian Group Inc. (RDN) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, directly impacting investor sentiment.

Not available

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share and maintain profitability.

Not available

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RDN Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.88%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Radian reported an EPS of $0.89, missing estimates by nearly 24%. Despite the miss, the stock saw a slight increase of 0.42% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Radian can exceed EPS expectations and demonstrate strong revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in its financial performance, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Radian fails to meet expectations again or provides weak guidance, it may lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Radian's EPS exceed $1.00 this quarter?

Given the significant miss last quarter, a rebound in EPS would indicate improved operational efficiency and market conditions.

What guidance will Radian provide for the upcoming quarters?

Management's outlook will be crucial for investor confidence, especially after the recent earnings miss.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Radian's ability to rebound from last quarter's miss, as historical data shows a strong EPS beat rate.

Supporting Evidence

Radian has an 88% EPS beat rate historically, indicating potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing suggests a smaller move than historical averages, indicating a potential mispricing of risk.

Key Risk

If Radian's EPS exceeds $1.00, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a notable earnings miss, and guidance will be closely scrutinized.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.80 would support the bear case and raise concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±0.78%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing a relatively small move, suggesting that investors are uncertain about significant changes in stock price following the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±0.8% while RDN has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.5%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 3.25Puts (1K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$1.1M

30,000 sh

1 insider

Net

$1.1M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 3 open-market trades

Sr EVP, General CounselHoffman Edward J
$1.1M
Net selling

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Radian beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.95%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may react moderately, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the market.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.42%, reinforcing negative sentiment and concerns about the company's trajectory.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on mortgage insurance demand trends.
2Details on operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
3Insights into the housing market outlook and its impact on Radian's business.
4Management's commentary on competitive positioning in the mortgage finance sector.
5Any changes in regulatory environment affecting the mortgage industry.