Equity Profile

RDN

Radian Group Inc.

FinancialsCommercial & Residential Mortgage Finance$4.9B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Radian Group Inc. is a financial services company focused on mortgage finance, providing mortgage insurance and risk management solutions....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

$1.35

Revenue

Revenue reflects the company's overall sales performance and growth potential.

$497M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RDN Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Radian Group Inc. is a financial services company focused on mortgage finance, providing mortgage insurance and risk management solutions. With a market cap of $5 billion, it plays a significant role in the housing finance sector, which is influenced by interest rates and housing market trends.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.88%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Radian reported an EPS of $0.89, missing expectations by nearly 24%. The stock reacted positively the next day, gaining 0.42%.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Radian to report an EPS of $1.35 and revenue of $497 million for Q2 2026. The market is watching closely after a significant earnings miss last quarter.

Bull Case

If Radian can exceed EPS expectations, it may signal a recovery in profitability and boost investor confidence, potentially leading to a stock price increase.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Radian misses again, it could raise concerns about its operational efficiency and future growth, leading to a possible decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$1.35

EPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

Revenue

$497M

Revenue reflects the company's overall sales performance and growth potential.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Radian achieve an EPS of $1.35 or higher?

This figure is critical as it will determine if the company can regain investor confidence after a significant miss last quarter.

What factors contributed to the revenue forecast of $497 million?

Understanding the drivers behind revenue expectations will help gauge the company's growth trajectory and market conditions.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Radian's potential for a strong recovery, as the recent earnings miss could be a one-off event rather than a trend.

Supporting Evidence

Radian has historically beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time, indicating potential for a rebound.

The options market is pricing in a smaller move than historical averages, suggesting that expectations may be too conservative.

Key Risk

If Radian's EPS exceeds $1.35, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Radian can stabilize its earnings after a disappointing previous quarter.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.35 or better would confirm a recovery in profitability and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.30 would raise concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±0.78%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a relatively small move for Radian's stock following the earnings report, suggesting limited volatility expectations.

Options are pricing ±0.8% while RDN has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.5%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 3.25Puts (1K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing cheap setup in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Radian beats expectations, history suggests a stock price increase of around +0.95%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical data suggesting an average drop of +0.42%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the impact of interest rates on mortgage insurance demand.
2Details on operational efficiencies that could improve profit margins.
3Management's outlook on the housing market and its effects on future revenue.
4Insights into any new risk management strategies being implemented.
5Clarification on the drivers behind the revenue forecast of $497 million.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Radian Group Inc. is a financial services company focused on mortgage finance, providing mortgage insurance and risk management solutions....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

$1.35

Revenue

Revenue reflects the company's overall sales performance and growth potential.

$497M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RDN Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.88%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Radian reported an EPS of $0.89, missing expectations by nearly 24%. The stock reacted positively the next day, gaining 0.42%.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Radian to report an EPS of $1.35 and revenue of $497 million for Q2 2026. The market is watching closely after a significant earnings miss last quarter.

Bull Case

If Radian can exceed EPS expectations, it may signal a recovery in profitability and boost investor confidence, potentially leading to a stock price increase.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Radian misses again, it could raise concerns about its operational efficiency and future growth, leading to a possible decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$1.35

EPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

Revenue

$497M

Revenue reflects the company's overall sales performance and growth potential.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Radian achieve an EPS of $1.35 or higher?

This figure is critical as it will determine if the company can regain investor confidence after a significant miss last quarter.

What factors contributed to the revenue forecast of $497 million?

Understanding the drivers behind revenue expectations will help gauge the company's growth trajectory and market conditions.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Radian's potential for a strong recovery, as the recent earnings miss could be a one-off event rather than a trend.

Supporting Evidence

Radian has historically beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time, indicating potential for a rebound.

The options market is pricing in a smaller move than historical averages, suggesting that expectations may be too conservative.

Key Risk

If Radian's EPS exceeds $1.35, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Radian can stabilize its earnings after a disappointing previous quarter.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.35 or better would confirm a recovery in profitability and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.30 would raise concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±0.78%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a relatively small move for Radian's stock following the earnings report, suggesting limited volatility expectations.

Options are pricing ±0.8% while RDN has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.5%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 3.25Puts (1K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing cheap setup in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Radian beats expectations, history suggests a stock price increase of around +0.95%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical data suggesting an average drop of +0.42%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the impact of interest rates on mortgage insurance demand.
2Details on operational efficiencies that could improve profit margins.
3Management's outlook on the housing market and its effects on future revenue.
4Insights into any new risk management strategies being implemented.
5Clarification on the drivers behind the revenue forecast of $497 million.