Equity Profile

RDN

Radian Group Inc.

FinancialsCommercial & Residential Mortgage Finance$5.1B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Radian Group Inc. (RDN) operates in the financial sector, primarily focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Radian has managed its costs and revenue.

N/A

Mortgage Insurance Premiums

This metric reflects the core revenue stream for Radian and is essential for understanding its growth potential.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RDN Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Radian Group Inc. (RDN) operates in the financial sector, primarily focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance. As a key player in the mortgage insurance market, Radian helps lenders manage risk and provides support to homebuyers, making it an important part of the housing finance ecosystem.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.88%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Radian reported an EPS of $0.89, which was significantly below the expected $1.17, resulting in a surprise of -23.93%. Following this, the stock saw a modest increase of 0.42% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Radian's upcoming earnings, especially after the significant EPS miss last quarter. The market is looking for signs of recovery and improvement in key metrics.

Bull Case

If Radian can demonstrate strong growth in mortgage insurance premiums and manage claims effectively, it could lead to a positive surprise and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports another significant EPS miss or shows signs of increased claims, it could raise concerns about its profitability and risk management.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the updated outlook for mortgage insurance premiums in the current market?

Given the fluctuations in the housing market, this will be crucial for understanding Radian's revenue potential moving forward.

How has Radian managed claims in the face of rising interest rates?

This will provide insight into the company's risk management strategies and overall financial health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Radian's ability to rebound from last quarter's miss, especially if mortgage insurance premiums show unexpected strength.

Supporting Evidence

Historical data shows that Radian has an 88% EPS beat rate, suggesting potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing indicates a smaller move than historical averages, which could imply a mispricing of risk.

Key Risk

If mortgage insurance premiums exceed expectations, it could significantly alter the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around Radian's ability to navigate a challenging mortgage environment while maintaining profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant increase in mortgage insurance premiums, ideally above 10% year-over-year, would confirm a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

If claims paid exceed 15% of premiums, it would indicate potential issues in underwriting and risk management.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±0.78%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a relatively small move, suggesting that investors are uncertain about significant changes in stock price following the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±0.8% while RDN has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.5%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 3.25Puts (1K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing cheap setup in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Radian beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.95%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess their expectations.

Miss

Should Radian miss expectations again, history indicates a potential drop of about 0.42%, raising concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the company's strategy to increase mortgage insurance premiums.
2Details on the impact of interest rate changes on claims and underwriting.
3Insights into the competitive landscape and how Radian plans to maintain its market position.
4Management's commentary on the outlook for the housing market and its implications for Radian's business.
5Any changes in guidance or expectations for the upcoming quarters.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Radian Group Inc. (RDN) operates in the financial sector, primarily focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Radian has managed its costs and revenue.

N/A

Mortgage Insurance Premiums

This metric reflects the core revenue stream for Radian and is essential for understanding its growth potential.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RDN Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.88%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Radian can demonstrate strong growth in mortgage insurance premiums and manage claims effectively, it could lead to a positive surprise and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports another significant EPS miss or shows signs of increased claims, it could raise concerns about its profitability and risk management.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the updated outlook for mortgage insurance premiums in the current market?

Given the fluctuations in the housing market, this will be crucial for understanding Radian's revenue potential moving forward.

How has Radian managed claims in the face of rising interest rates?

This will provide insight into the company's risk management strategies and overall financial health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Radian's ability to rebound from last quarter's miss, especially if mortgage insurance premiums show unexpected strength.

Supporting Evidence

Historical data shows that Radian has an 88% EPS beat rate, suggesting potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing indicates a smaller move than historical averages, which could imply a mispricing of risk.

Key Risk

If mortgage insurance premiums exceed expectations, it could significantly alter the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around Radian's ability to navigate a challenging mortgage environment while maintaining profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant increase in mortgage insurance premiums, ideally above 10% year-over-year, would confirm a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

If claims paid exceed 15% of premiums, it would indicate potential issues in underwriting and risk management.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±0.78%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a relatively small move, suggesting that investors are uncertain about significant changes in stock price following the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±0.8% while RDN has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.5%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 3.25Puts (1K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing cheap setup in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Radian beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.95%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess their expectations.

Miss

Should Radian miss expectations again, history indicates a potential drop of about 0.42%, raising concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the company's strategy to increase mortgage insurance premiums.
2Details on the impact of interest rate changes on claims and underwriting.
3Insights into the competitive landscape and how Radian plans to maintain its market position.
4Management's commentary on the outlook for the housing market and its implications for Radian's business.
5Any changes in guidance or expectations for the upcoming quarters.